Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. </li>
<li>While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.</li>
<li>Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. 
While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.
Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.


MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bikaji-foods-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36502:1" rel="noopener">Bikaji Foods (BIKAJI IN)</a>, an ethnic snacks company, raised approximately US$107m in its India IPO. The stock was listed on 16th Nov 2022, its six-month lockup will expire soon.</li>
<li>Bikaji was the third largest ethnic snacks company in India and the second fastest growing company in the Indian organized snacks market in FY22, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S).</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Bikaji Foods (BIKAJI IN), an ethnic snacks company, raised approximately US$107m in its India IPO. The stock was listed on 16th Nov 2022, its six-month lockup will expire soon.
Bikaji was the third largest ethnic snacks company in India and the second fastest growing company in the Indian organized snacks market in FY22, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S).
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


Bikaji Foods IPO Lock-Up - Small Expiry with a Chance to Lift the Overhang

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Titan: While Titan continued to clock healthy revenue growth of INR 103.6bn (up 33%; 4-year CAGR: 21%; HSIE: INR 98.8bn), the margin fell short of expectations</li><li>Jewellery sales (ex-bullion; standalone) grew 23.5% (4-year CAGR: 18.4%) in Q4FY23 as both the number of buyers and ticket sizes aided growth</li><li>Non-jewellery growth of 31% YoY (4-year CAGR: 13%) remained healthy too (in-line)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Titan: While Titan continued to clock healthy revenue growth of INR 103.6bn (up 33%; 4-year CAGR: 21%; HSIE: INR 98.8bn), the margin fell short of expectationsJewellery sales (ex-bullion; standalone) grew 23.5% (4-year CAGR: 18.4%) in Q4FY23 as both the number of buyers and ticket sizes aided growthNon-jewellery growth of 31% YoY (4-year CAGR: 13%) remained healthy too (in-line)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Titan, Havells India, Godrej Properties, Petronet LNG, CDSL, Orient Cement

<ul><li>Demand peak in discretionary categories seems to be behind us: Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~19% YoY (revenue) in Q4FY23 (four-year revenue CAGR: 16%)</li><li>Elevated ticket sizes and store expansion coupled with normalizing footfalls aided growth</li><li>However, in retail, many of these variables are now mean-reverting</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Demand peak in discretionary categories seems to be behind us: Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~19% YoY (revenue) in Q4FY23 (four-year revenue CAGR: 16%)Elevated ticket sizes and store expansion coupled with normalizing footfalls aided growthHowever, in retail, many of these variables are now mean-revertingContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Discretionary - Discretionary Peak Most Certainly Behind Us

Nexus Select Trust / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexus-select-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36566:1" rel="noopener">Nexus Select Trust (NST IN)</a>  is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming India IPO. </li>
<li>NST is a REIT with a portfolio of 17 Grade A urban consumption centers. It is backed by Blackstone.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Nexus Select Trust (NST IN)  is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming India IPO. 
NST is a REIT with a portfolio of 17 Grade A urban consumption centers. It is backed by Blackstone.
In this note, we will talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Nexus Select Trust Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Some Assets Were Recently Acquired, Not All Doing Well

India

Titan Co. Ltd. manufactures and retails jewelry and watches. The Company also produces perfume for men and women.

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Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN)

MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

MSCI $ACWI Bullish Above $93, inverse head-and-shoulders breakout targets $110; EURO $STOXX 50 Holding At the Uptrend; Buys in Consumer...

Vermilion Research

Bikaji Foods IPO Lock-Up - Small Expiry with a Chance to Lift the Overhang

Bikaji Foods (BIKAJI IN), an ethnic snacks company, raised approximately US$107m in its India IPO. The stock was listed on 16th Nov 2022, its six...

Sumeet Singh

HSIE Results Daily: Titan, Havells India, Godrej Properties, Petronet LNG, CDSL, Orient Cement

Titan: While Titan continued to clock healthy revenue growth of INR 103.6bn (up 33%; 4-year CAGR: 21%; HSIE: INR 98.8bn), the margin fell short of...

HDFC Securities

Consumer Discretionary - Discretionary Peak Most Certainly Behind Us

Demand peak in discretionary categories seems to be behind us: Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~19% YoY (revenue) in Q4FY23 (four...

HDFC Securities

Nexus Select Trust Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Some Assets Were Recently Acquired, Not All Doing Well

Nexus Select Trust (NST IN) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects...

Sumeet Singh

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