Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Analyst meeting came out with a neutral tone. We expect 4Q21 net profit to recover QoQ, supported by higher demand volume and asphalt price,driven by budget disbursement and soared crude</li>
<li>Expect earnings to blossom QoQ, but soften YoY due to absence of cheap alternative crude sources, combined with lower sales volume.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, management affirmed current inventory of heavy crude oil from other sources is suffice for producing asphalt until 1Q22.</li>
</ul>


Analyst meeting came out with a neutral tone. We expect 4Q21 net profit to recover QoQ, supported by higher demand volume and asphalt price,driven by budget disbursement and soared crude
Expect earnings to blossom QoQ, but soften YoY due to absence of cheap alternative crude sources, combined with lower sales volume.
Meanwhile, management affirmed current inventory of heavy crude oil from other sources is suffice for producing asphalt until 1Q22.


TASCO: 4Q21 Earnings on Solid Recovery Path

<p><strong>We expect 3Q21 earnings at Bt435mn (-77% YoY, -50QoQ),  caused by the YoY and QoQ drop in both sales volume and asphalt margin.</strong></p><div>• Expect its 3Q21 revenue to decline QoQ at Bt7.4bn, (-14%YoY, -5%QoQ), dragged by falling retail volume, over lessen 2H21E fiscal budget</div><div></div><div>• Meanwhile, YoY fall in revenue reflects mute international volume due to supply constraint after an absence of cheap crude source outside Venezuela.</div><div></div><div>• Believe 4Q21 earnings will remain flat, backed by a slight uptick in domestic volume supported by 22E government budget (-6.8%YoY)</div><div></div><div><strong>Maintain our HOLD rating with TP of Bt19.50 based on 13.5xPE’21E, which is equal to Asia (ex-Japan) material peer. However, we leave this TP to our forecast review after 3Q21 result by mid November, accounting for better volume from potential road budget hike and Venezuela sanction relief.</strong></div>

We expect 3Q21 earnings at Bt435mn (-77% YoY, -50QoQ),  caused by the YoY and QoQ drop in both sales volume and asphalt margin.• Expect its 3Q21 revenue to decline QoQ at Bt7.4bn, (-14%YoY, -5%QoQ), dragged by falling retail volume, over lessen 2H21E fiscal budget• Meanwhile, YoY fall in revenue reflects mute international volume due to supply constraint after an absence of cheap crude source outside Venezuela.• Believe 4Q21 earnings will remain flat, backed by a slight uptick in domestic volume supported by 22E government budget (-6.8%YoY)Maintain our HOLD rating with TP of Bt19.50 based on 13.5xPE’21E, which is equal to Asia (ex-Japan) material peer. However, we leave this TP to our forecast review after 3Q21 result by mid November, accounting for better volume from potential road budget hike and Venezuela sanction relief.

TASCO: 3Q21 Earnings Poised to Hit near Bottom

<p><strong>Analyst meeting came out with a neutral tone. The company started to procure alternative crudes up to 2 sources and is shifting to retail market.</strong></p><div>• Alternative crude procurement has started in Jan. Consequently, we expect lower sales volume and higher cost by 20% in 2021 (included in forecast).</div><div></div><div>• Management is shifting company’s strategy to retail market, premium products, and construction services in 2021, enhancing its profitability</div><div></div><div>• Asphalt demand remains solid in 2021 as international markets recover. Meanwhile, domestic consumption to be driven by an increase in road maintenance and construction budget (+5.7%).</div><div></div><div>• We expect TASCO’s core earnings in 1Q21 to grow YoY, but slightly drop QoQ due to seasonality.</div><p>We reiterate our HOLD rating with a target price of Bt19.50, derived from 13.5xPE’21E which is equal to Asia ex Japan material peer.</p>

Analyst meeting came out with a neutral tone. The company started to procure alternative crudes up to 2 sources and is shifting to retail market.• Alternative crude procurement has started in Jan. Consequently, we expect lower sales volume and higher cost by 20% in 2021 (included in forecast).• Management is shifting company’s strategy to retail market, premium products, and construction services in 2021, enhancing its profitability• Asphalt demand remains solid in 2021 as international markets recover. Meanwhile, domestic consumption to be driven by an increase in road maintenance and construction budget (+5.7%).• We expect TASCO’s core earnings in 1Q21 to grow YoY, but slightly drop QoQ due to seasonality.We reiterate our HOLD rating with a target price of Bt19.50, derived from 13.5xPE’21E which is equal to Asia ex Japan material peer.

TASCO: Focusing on Retail Market After Crude Switching

<p><strong>Analyst meeting held yesterday came out with a positive tone. The company is now able to procure alternative crudes, starting in 1Q21. Meanwhile, asphalt demand remains solid in 4Q20.</strong></p><ul>
<li>The company has already found the alternative feedstocks which economically suit the company profile, leading to 2021-22E earnings upgrade.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, we expect the company to post an earnings growth YoY (but soften QoQ) in 4Q20, on the back of i) strong domestic demand ii) healthy asphalt margin and iii) recovery in international market.</li>
<li>We revises 2020-22E earnings up by 20-60% to factor in a strong margin in 2020 and improved sales volume from new crude in 2021-22E.<br>
</li>
</ul><p><strong>We upgrade our rating to HOLD from SELL with a new target price of Bt19.50 (from Bt15.0), derived from 13.5xPE’21E which is equal to Asia ex Japan material peer.</strong></p>

Analyst meeting held yesterday came out with a positive tone. The company is now able to procure alternative crudes, starting in 1Q21. Meanwhile, asphalt demand remains solid in 4Q20.
The company has already found the alternative feedstocks which economically suit the company profile, leading to 2021-22E earnings upgrade.
Meanwhile, we expect the company to post an earnings growth YoY (but soften QoQ) in 4Q20, on the back of i) strong domestic demand ii) healthy asphalt margin and iii) recovery in international market.
We revises 2020-22E earnings up by 20-60% to factor in a strong margin in 2020 and improved sales volume from new crude in 2021-22E. 

We upgrade our rating to HOLD from SELL with a new target price of Bt19.50 (from Bt15.0), derived from 13.5xPE’21E which is equal to Asia ex Japan material peer.

TASCO: Revise Earnings up Thanks to New Crude Sourcing

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The week that was in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  </p>
</div>
<h3>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h3>
<p>In Indonesia<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-mandiri-persero-bmri-ij-a-plethora-of-good-news" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - A Plethora of Good News</a>,  Cross-ASEAN insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> reports back a call with<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> revealed a relatively positive message on a number of fronts, which came as a rare positive surprise. </p>
<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-mandiri-persero-bmri-ij-the-unsung-hero-of-syariah" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - The Unsung Hero of Syariah?</a> , Cross-ASEAN Insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> sees potential positive catalysts in the merger of three State-owned Syariah banks. He believes that Mandiri Syariah,  given it has the largest Syariah business and generating an ROE in excess of 15%, will take the lead in the merged entity. </p>
<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/metrodata-electronic-mtdl-ij-a-rare-value-play-on-indonesia-s-digitalization" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Metrodata Electronic (MTDL IJ) - A Rare Value Play on Indonesia's Digitalization</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> highlights why<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metrodata-electronic-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Metrodata Electronic (MTDL IJ)</a> looks undervalued, as it benefits not only from offline companies continuing to digitalize processes and infrastructure but also from the rise in e-commerce, digital payments, fintech, and gaming. </p>
<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/xl-axiata-excl-ij-enabling-and-converging-in-indonesia" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) - Enabling and Converging in Indonesia</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> XL Axiata (EXCL IJ),</a> one of the key enablers of the Indonesian digital economy, with around 90% of revenues coming from data and 75% of its subscriber base on 4G. Smartkarma hosted a Webinar with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata (EXCL IJ)</a> last week, which revealed a positive long-term picture, despite some near term competitive headwinds. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sunpower-read-across-from-buyout-of-zheneng-jinjiang-fair-value-remains-at-1-sgd-63-upside" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44133" rel="noopener">Sunpower: Read Across from Buyout of Zheneng JinJiang; Fair Value Remains at 1 SGD (63% Upside),</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nicolas-van-broekhoven-24a66c2d-bca4-4f5b-adda-c4e2bcc509f4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208" rel="noopener">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunpower-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18395:1" rel="noopener">Sunpower Group (SPWG SP)</a> post a Smartakarma webinar with the company. </p>
<p>In Thailand<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ipo-radar-nforce-secure-new-player-in-thai-cyber-security" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> IPO Radar: NForce Secure, New Player in Thai Cyber Security</a>, Thai Specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> takes a look at NForce Secure, New Player in Thai Cyber Security.  </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wilmar-is-a-buy-after-yka-s-listing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44228" rel="noopener">Wilmar Is A Buy After YKA’s Listing,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wilmar-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:172:1" rel="noopener">Wilmar International (WIL SP)</a> following the successful listing of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yihai-kerry-arawana-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29184:1" rel="noopener">Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (YKA CH).</a></p>
<p>In Singapore<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sgx-sgx-sp-market-under-rates-its-growth-potential" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> SGX (SGX SP): Market Under-Rates Its Growth Potential</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/victor-galliano" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Victor Galliano</a> discusses why he feels<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> SGX (SGX SP)</a> is undervalued. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/business-dna-suksan-yasasin-of-chayo-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44242" rel="noopener">Business DNA: Suksan Yasasin of Chayo Group,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> conducts an interview with Suksan Yasasin, the CEO of Chayo Group. Business DNA is a chance to dig into the essential makeup of business leaders and their organizations. The focus is not on the short term but rather on understanding the driving forces of a business. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ori-expect-flat-3q20-earnings-but-strong-recovery-in-4q20" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44163" rel="noopener">ORI: Expect Flat 3Q20 Earnings but Strong Recovery in 4Q20,</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> revisit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-property-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26762:1" rel="noopener">Origin Property (ORI TB)</a> ahead of the company's earnings. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/com7-upgrade-super-cycle-for-iphone-users" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44208" rel="noopener">COM7: Upgrade Super Cycle for iPhone Users,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> revisits this electronics distributor in light of the announcement of the launch of the new iPhone 12. </p>
<h3>Sector and Thematic Insights</h3>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/snippets-45-lobster-alliance-cp-all-goes-to-laos" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42866" rel="noopener">Snippets #45: Lobster Alliance, CP All Goes to Laos,</a> our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> highlights five developments over the past week that may impact Thai equities.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sti-index-rebalance-kdcreit-included-flt-misses-out" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44178" rel="noopener">STI Index Rebalance: KDCREIT Included, FLT Misses Out,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> comments on the recent FTSE STI Index rebalance.  </p>
<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/msci-nov20-index-rebalance-preview-asean-em-edition" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> MSCI Nov20 Index Rebalance Preview - ASEAN EM Edition</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Brian Freitas</a> looks at the upcoming MSCI ASEAN EM scheduled rebalancing. </p>
<h3>Credit Insights</h3>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kasikornbank-s-inaugural-at1-underweight-on-franchise-challenges-and-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44176" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank’s Inaugural AT1 – Underweight on Franchise Challenges and Valuation,</a> credit specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/hank-calenti-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:5194" rel="noopener">Hank Calenti, CFA</a> comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)</a>'s inaugural AT1 bond. He suggests to Underweight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank's (KBANK)</a> inaugural Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bond on franchise challenges and valuation. </p>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  

Equity Bottom-Up Insights
In Indonesia Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - A Plethora of Good News,  Cross-ASEAN insight provider Angus Mackintosh reports back a call with Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) revealed a relatively positive message on a number of fronts, which came as a rare positive surprise. 
In Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - The Unsung Hero of Syariah? , Cross-ASEAN Insight provider Angus Mackintosh sees potential positive catalysts in the merger of three State-owned Syariah banks. He believes that Mandiri Syariah,  given it has the largest Syariah business and generating an ROE in excess of 15%, will take the lead in the merged entity. 
In Metrodata Electronic (MTDL IJ) - A Rare Value Play on Indonesia's Digitalization, Angus Mackintosh highlights why Metrodata Electronic (MTDL IJ) looks undervalued, as it benefits not only from offline companies continuing to digitalize processes and infrastructure but also from the rise in e-commerce, digital payments, fintech, and gaming. 
In XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) - Enabling and Converging in Indonesia, Angus Mackintosh revisits XL Axiata (EXCL IJ), one of the key enablers of the Indonesian digital economy, with around 90% of revenues coming from data and 75% of its subscriber base on 4G. Smartkarma hosted a Webinar with XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) last week, which revealed a positive long-term picture, despite some near term competitive headwinds. 
In Sunpower: Read Across from Buyout of Zheneng JinJiang; Fair Value Remains at 1 SGD (63% Upside), CrossASEAN Insight Provider provider Nicolas Van Broekhoven revisits Sunpower Group (SPWG SP) post a Smartakarma webinar with the company. 
In Thailand IPO Radar: NForce Secure, New Player in Thai Cyber Security, Thai Specialist Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA takes a look at NForce Secure, New Player in Thai Cyber Security.  
In Wilmar Is A Buy After YKA’s Listing,David Blennerhassett revisits Wilmar International (WIL SP) following the successful listing of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (YKA CH).
In Singapore SGX (SGX SP): Market Under-Rates Its Growth Potential, Victor Galliano discusses why he feels SGX (SGX SP) is undervalued. 
In Business DNA: Suksan Yasasin of Chayo Group,Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA conducts an interview with Suksan Yasasin, the CEO of Chayo Group. Business DNA is a chance to dig into the essential makeup of business leaders and their organizations. The focus is not on the short term but rather on understanding the driving forces of a business. 
In ORI: Expect Flat 3Q20 Earnings but Strong Recovery in 4Q20, our friends at Country Group revisit Origin Property (ORI TB) ahead of the company's earnings. 
In COM7: Upgrade Super Cycle for iPhone Users, Country Group revisits this electronics distributor in light of the announcement of the launch of the new iPhone 12. 
Sector and Thematic Insights
In Snippets #45: Lobster Alliance, CP All Goes to Laos, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA highlights five developments over the past week that may impact Thai equities.
In STI Index Rebalance: KDCREIT Included, FLT Misses Out, Brian Freitas comments on the recent FTSE STI Index rebalance.  
In MSCI Nov20 Index Rebalance Preview - ASEAN EM Edition, Brian Freitas looks at the upcoming MSCI ASEAN EM scheduled rebalancing. 
Credit Insights
In Kasikornbank’s Inaugural AT1 – Underweight on Franchise Challenges and Valuation, credit specialist Hank Calenti, CFA comments on Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)'s inaugural AT1 bond. He suggests to Underweight Kasikornbank's (KBANK) inaugural Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bond on franchise challenges and valuation. 

The NEW Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Syariah Banking, XL Axiata, and Telkom's Tower Spinoff

Thailand

Tipco Asphalt Public Company Limited manufactures and distributes asphalt emulsion for use in construction and maintenance of roads. The Company sells its products in both domestic and export markets.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Tipco Asphalt (TASCO TB)

TASCO: 4Q21 Earnings on Solid Recovery Path

Analyst meeting came out with a neutral tone. We expect 4Q21 net profit to recover QoQ, supported by higher demand volume and asphalt price, driven...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

TASCO: 3Q21 Earnings Poised to Hit near Bottom

We expect 3Q21 earnings at Bt435mn (-77% YoY, -50QoQ), caused by the YoY and QoQ drop in both sales volume and asphalt margin.

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

TASCO: Focusing on Retail Market After Crude Switching

Analyst meeting came out with a neutral tone. The company started to procure alternative crudes up to 2 sources and is shifting to retail market.

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

TASCO: Revise Earnings up Thanks to New Crude Sourcing

The company is now able to procure alternative crudes, starting in 1Q21. Meanwhile, asphalt demand remains solid in 4Q20. we expect the company to...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

The NEW Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Syariah Banking, XL Axiata, and Telkom's Tower Spinoff

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East...

Angus Mackintosh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)