India Equity Value investor, Trivikram Consultants

Prashant Vaishampayan

India Equity Value investor

Picking Long Term Multi-bagger stocks

Trivikram Consultants

Trivikram Consultants is an equity research service founded by Prashant Vaishampayan, a registered Research Analyst with SEBI in India. Prashant has done equity research since 1992.  He worked with Jardine Fleming, SG Securities, UBS and Kotak Securities. Since 2010, he is managing his portfolio and doing outsourced equity research for institutional clients. A team of six professionals helps him in equity research. We focus on pharma, agro-chemicals, auto and auto components, banks and financial services, specialty chemicals and niche manufacturing sectors.   

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul class="">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16979" target="_blank">TIME TECHNOPLAST LTD (TIME IN)</a> reported 15% YoY growth in revenues at Rs 7.8bn in 1QFY19. The EBITDA and PAT improved by 19% YoY to Rs 1.2 bn and Rs 440mn respectively. Volumes increased by 14% YoY in the quarter.  </li>
<li>Our estimates for FY19E and FY20E have changed marginally to give the effect of 1QFY19 numbers.</li>
<li>TIME has launched new generation multilayer pipes for power/communication cable ducts with silicon in-lining during 1QFY19. TIME signed and understanding for 'Lifesafe' composite cylinder range in South America and the Carribean market. The offtake is expected to begin from 3QFY19E.</li>
<li>TIME has a diversified product portfolio and is a market leader in the geographies covered by it. The 1QFY19 performance is in line with our investment thesis. We value TIME based on 18x its earnings (raised from 15x) of Rs 13 per share for the year ending June 20E. Our fair value estimate comes to Rs 235/- (Revised 24% upwards from earlier Rs 190/-).</li>
</ul>
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
FY17
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
FY18
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
FY19E
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
FY20E
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
PE (x)
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
24
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
20
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
17
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
13
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
ROE
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
11%
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
12%
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
13%
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
15%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
ROCE
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
17%
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
18%
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
19%
</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">
21%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="content-caption">Source: TIME Annual Report 2018, Trivikram Consultants research as of 8th August 2018</div>



TIME TECHNOPLAST LTD (TIME IN) reported 15% YoY growth in revenues at Rs 7.8bn in 1QFY19. The EBITDA and PAT improved by 19% YoY to Rs 1.2 bn and Rs 440mn respectively. Volumes increased by 14% YoY in the quarter.  
Our estimates for FY19E and FY20E have changed marginally to give the effect of 1QFY19 numbers.
TIME has launched new generation multilayer pipes for power/communication cable ducts with silicon in-lining during 1QFY19. TIME signed and understanding for 'Lifesafe' composite cylinder range in South America and the Carribean market. The offtake is expected to begin from 3QFY19E.
TIME has a diversified product portfolio and is a market leader in the geographies covered by it. The 1QFY19 performance is in line with our investment thesis. We value TIME based on 18x its earnings (raised from 15x) of Rs 13 per share for the year ending June 20E. Our fair value estimate comes to Rs 235/- (Revised 24% upwards from earlier Rs 190/-).






FY17


FY18


FY19E


FY20E




PE (x)


24


20


17


13




ROE


11%


12%


13%


15%




ROCE


17%


18%


19%


21%




Source: TIME Annual Report 2018, Trivikram Consultants research as of 8th August 2018

TIME TECHNOPLAST LTD - 1QFY19 – Increasing Confidence and Raising Fair Value Estimate

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16043" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16043:1">Time Technoplast Ltd (TIME IN)</a>  manufactures a wide array of products using polymer-based technologies. TIME operates in the rigid packaging sector. It offers industrial packaging products, including drums and containers, packaging solutions, intermediate bulk containers and lifestyle products. TIME's strategies include delivering higher growth driven by new product launched in the higher margin segment.During FY18-20E, we expect TIME revenues to grow by 11% CAGR to Rs 38bn. EBITDA margins are expected to improve by 140 bps to 16.6%. Reduction in interest expenses will drive PAT growth of 26% CAGR (FY18-20E). ROCE and ROE ratios are likely to increase to 21% and 15% by end FY20E.TIME can be a part of the long-term portfolio because:<ul><li>The revenue growth in high margin products such as composite cylinders, Multilayer Multi Axis-Oriented X Cross Laminated (MOX) films, Intermediate Bulk Containers (IBC) will drive the performance of TIME during FY18-20E.</li><li>Recent capacity additions and exposure of the products in all covered geographies will raise the utilisation levels. </li><li> Industrial packaging products such as polymer drums/jerrycans and conipack pails have steady demand and are likely to grow along with the underlying sectors such as chemical and petrochemical sectors.</li><li>Pipes segment is expected to revive from the adverse GST (Goods and Services Tax) impact in India.</li></ul>The fair value estimates for TIME comes to Rs 190/- per share over the next twelve months. This valuation is based on 15x multiple applied to FY20E earnings and suggests a potential return of 30%. <table class="table table-striped"><tbody><tr><td> </td><td style="text-align: right;">FY17</td><td style="text-align: right;">FY18</td><td style="text-align: right;">FY19E</td><td style="text-align: right;">FY20E</td></tr><tr><td>PE (x)</td><td style="text-align: right;">23</td><td style="text-align: right;">18</td><td style="text-align: right;">15</td><td style="text-align: right;">12</td></tr><tr><td>ROE</td><td style="text-align: right;">11%</td><td style="text-align: right;">12%</td><td style="text-align: right;">13%</td><td style="text-align: right;">15%</td></tr><tr><td>ROCE</td><td style="text-align: right;">17%</td><td style="text-align: right;">18%</td><td style="text-align: right;">19%</td><td style="text-align: right;">21%</td></tr></tbody></table><div class="content-caption">Source: Trivikram Consultants Research (PE based on the close price of TIME on 7th June 2018)</div>

Time Technoplast Ltd (TIME IN)  manufactures a wide array of products using polymer-based technologies. TIME operates in the rigid packaging sector. It offers industrial packaging products, including drums and containers, packaging solutions, intermediate bulk containers and lifestyle products. TIME's strategies include delivering higher growth driven by new product launched in the higher margin segment.During FY18-20E, we expect TIME revenues to grow by 11% CAGR to Rs 38bn. EBITDA margins are expected to improve by 140 bps to 16.6%. Reduction in interest expenses will drive PAT growth of 26% CAGR (FY18-20E). ROCE and ROE ratios are likely to increase to 21% and 15% by end FY20E.TIME can be a part of the long-term portfolio because:The revenue growth in high margin products such as composite cylinders, Multilayer Multi Axis-Oriented X Cross Laminated (MOX) films, Intermediate Bulk Containers (IBC) will drive the performance of TIME during FY18-20E.Recent capacity additions and exposure of the products in all covered geographies will raise the utilisation levels.  Industrial packaging products such as polymer drums/jerrycans and conipack pails have steady demand and are likely to grow along with the underlying sectors such as chemical and petrochemical sectors.Pipes segment is expected to revive from the adverse GST (Goods and Services Tax) impact in India.The fair value estimates for TIME comes to Rs 190/- per share over the next twelve months. This valuation is based on 15x multiple applied to FY20E earnings and suggests a potential return of 30%.  FY17FY18FY19EFY20EPE (x)23181512ROE11%12%13%15%ROCE17%18%19%21%Source: Trivikram Consultants Research (PE based on the close price of TIME on 7th June 2018)

India

Time Technoplast Limited manufactures and sells technology based polymer products for a wide variety of industries.

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Time Technoplast (TIME IN)

TIME TECHNOPLAST LTD - 1QFY19 – Increasing Confidence and Raising Fair Value Estimate

TIME TECHNOPLAST LTD (TIME IN) reported 15% YoY growth in revenues at Rs 7.8bn in 1QFY19. The EBITDA and PAT improved by 19% YoY to Rs 1.2 bn and...

Trivikram Consultants

Time Technoplast Ltd– Packaging Gains

Time Technoplast Ltd (TIME IN) manufactures a wide array of products using polymer-based technologies. TIME operates in the rigid packaging...

Trivikram Consultants

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