External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>TINS’ 3Q24 performance beat our estimate due to stronger ASP and lower cash cost.</li><li>We revised up our production/sales and ASP estimates, which increased our FY24-25F net profit est. by +59.9%/104.9% to Rp1.4tr/Rp1.9tr. </li><li>We reiterate our BUY rating on stronger earnings prospects with higher TP of Rp2,300. Key risks are lower tin prices, sales, and higher cash costs.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

TINS’ 3Q24 performance beat our estimate due to stronger ASP and lower cash cost.We revised up our production/sales and ASP estimates, which increased our FY24-25F net profit est. by +59.9%/104.9% to Rp1.4tr/Rp1.9tr. We reiterate our BUY rating on stronger earnings prospects with higher TP of Rp2,300. Key risks are lower tin prices, sales, and higher cash costs.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Timah - Upgrading FY24-25F Est. Post 3Q24 Earnings Beat

<ul><li>The LME tin price is up +24% QTD to an average US$32.4k/t due to supply constraints from China, Myanmar, and Indonesia.</li><li>We expect TINS’ 2Q24 earnings to improve considerably, driven by higher ASP and continued robust cash cost management.</li><li>We resume our coverage with a Buy rating and an unchanged TP of Rp1,400. Key risks are lower tin prices, sales, and higher cash costs.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The LME tin price is up +24% QTD to an average US$32.4k/t due to supply constraints from China, Myanmar, and Indonesia.We expect TINS’ 2Q24 earnings to improve considerably, driven by higher ASP and continued robust cash cost management.We resume our coverage with a Buy rating and an unchanged TP of Rp1,400. Key risks are lower tin prices, sales, and higher cash costs.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Timah - Expect a Positive 2Q24 Outlook Fueled by Strong LME Tin Prices

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The MEMR on Saturday 8th Mar25 officially proposed an increase in royalty rate for Coal, Nickel, Copper, Gold, Silver, and Tin.</li><li>The impact on royalty hike varies, though INCO and TINS are most impacted due to their large exposure to affected products.</li><li>We reiterate our Neutral rating on the metal mining sector with a pecking order of ANTM&gt; NCKL&gt; TINS&gt; INCO&gt; MBMA&gt; MDKA.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The MEMR on Saturday 8th Mar25 officially proposed an increase in royalty rate for Coal, Nickel, Copper, Gold, Silver, and Tin.The impact on royalty hike varies, though INCO and TINS are most impacted due to their large exposure to affected products.We reiterate our Neutral rating on the metal mining sector with a pecking order of ANTM&gt; NCKL&gt; TINS&gt; INCO&gt; MBMA&gt; MDKA.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metal Mining: Proposed Royalty Hike Will Pressure FY25 Earnings (NEUTRAL)

<ul><li>We estimate a slightly weaker 4Q24 earnings trend from declining ASPs, though some companies excel through soaring sales volume.</li><li>We expect ANTM and NCKL to beat consensus’ FY24 estimate at 132%/ 111% from increased sales volume.</li><li>We maintain our Neutral rating with a revised pecking order of ANTM&gt; NCKL&gt; INCO&gt; TINS&gt; MBMA&gt; MDKA</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We estimate a slightly weaker 4Q24 earnings trend from declining ASPs, though some companies excel through soaring sales volume.We expect ANTM and NCKL to beat consensus’ FY24 estimate at 132%/ 111% from increased sales volume.We maintain our Neutral rating with a revised pecking order of ANTM&gt; NCKL&gt; INCO&gt; TINS&gt; MBMA&gt; MDKAContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metal Mining: 4Q24 preview: A Softer Quarter on Easing Commodity Prices (NEUTRAL)

Indonesia

PT Timah (Persero) Tbk operates tin mines on Indonesian islands such as Bangka and Karimun, and coastal areas of Sumatra. The Company, through its subsidiaries, also provides consultancy, shipping dockyard and workshop, transportation, exploration, and research and development services.

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Timah Persero (TINS IJ)

Timah - Upgrading FY24-25F Est. Post 3Q24 Earnings Beat

We reiterate our BUY rating on stronger earnings prospects with higher TP of Rp2,300. Key risks are lower tin prices, sales, and higher cash costs.

BRI Danareksa Research

Timah - Expect a Positive 2Q24 Outlook Fueled by Strong LME Tin Prices

We resume our coverage with a Buy rating and an unchanged TP of Rp1,400. Key risks are lower tin prices, sales, and higher cash costs.

BRI Danareksa Research

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in July. There will also be capping flows for BBCA and BBRI. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

Metal Mining: Proposed Royalty Hike Will Pressure FY25 Earnings (NEUTRAL)

The MEMR on Saturday 8th Mar25 officially proposed an increase in royalty rate for Coal, Nickel, Copper, Gold, Silver, and Tin.

BRI Danareksa Research

Metal Mining: 4Q24 preview: A Softer Quarter on Easing Commodity Prices (NEUTRAL)

We estimate a slightly weaker 4Q24 earnings trend from declining ASPs, though some companies excel through soaring sales volume.

BRI Danareksa Research

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