Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 40 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhaojin-mining-industry-company-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4626:1" rel="noopener">Zhaojin Mining Industry H (1818 HK)</a>'s tilt for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teraoka-seisakusho-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18180:1" rel="noopener">Teraoka Seisakusho (4987 JP)</a>'s MBO.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/symbio-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20292:1" rel="noopener">Symbio Holdings (SYM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lansen-pharmaceutical-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10835:1" rel="noopener">Lansen Pharmaceutical Holdings Co, Ltd. (503 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-healthcare-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23641:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">EOFlow (294090 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 40 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Zhaojin Mining Industry H (1818 HK)'s tilt for Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU); and Teraoka Seisakusho (4987 JP)'s MBO.
Key updates took place for: Symbio Holdings (SYM AU), Lansen Pharmaceutical Holdings Co, Ltd. (503 HK), Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS), and EOFlow (294090 KS).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Tietto Teraoka Seisakusho, Symbio, Celltrion Health, EOFlow

Haitong International Securities Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of October 2023, 7 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in October was 65%. The average YTD is 37% (85 deals).</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of October 2023, 7 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in October was 65%. The average YTD is 37% (85 deals).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2023: Haitong, Azure, Hollysys, Aeon, Teraoka, Tietto, Lithium Power

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There is one change for the ASX20, two for the ASX100, four for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX</a> and 12 adds/ 9 deletes for the ASX300 Index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>There will be between 7-20 days of ADV to trade on the ASX100 and ASX200 adds while the impact on the deletions is between 1-11 days of ADV.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes on all indices over the last few months. Short interest has jumped on a lot of the large deletes.</li>
</ul>


There is one change for the ASX20, two for the ASX100, four for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX and 12 adds/ 9 deletes for the ASX300 Index at the March rebalance.
There will be between 7-20 days of ADV to trade on the ASX100 and ASX200 adds while the impact on the deletions is between 1-11 days of ADV.
The adds have outperformed the deletes on all indices over the last few months. Short interest has jumped on a lot of the large deletes.


S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

<ul>
<li>We currently see 1 change for the ASX20 Index, 2 changes for the ASX100 Index, 4 changes for the ASX200 Index, 10 adds/7 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.</li>
<li>On average, the potential adds to each of the indices have outperformed the potential deletes with the largest outperformance for the ASX300 Index.</li>
<li>Shorts have continued to increase positions on the potential deletes while covering their positions on the potential adds. We expect there are large pre-positions on some of the stocks now.</li>
</ul>


We currently see 1 change for the ASX20 Index, 2 changes for the ASX100 Index, 4 changes for the ASX200 Index, 10 adds/7 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.
On average, the potential adds to each of the indices have outperformed the potential deletes with the largest outperformance for the ASX300 Index.
Shorts have continued to increase positions on the potential deletes while covering their positions on the potential adds. We expect there are large pre-positions on some of the stocks now.


S&P/​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period (Nearly) Complete

<ul>
<li>We currently see 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX100, 4 changes for the ASX 200 and 9 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade over 3 days of ADV on 13 stocks, over 5 days of ADV on 9 stocks and over 10x ADV on 4 stocks. </li>
<li>Shorts have been covering positions on stocks where there are expected to be passive inflows and increasing positions on stocks that are expected to have passive outflows.</li>
</ul>


We currently see 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX100, 4 changes for the ASX 200 and 9 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.
Passive trackers will need to trade over 3 days of ADV on 13 stocks, over 5 days of ADV on 9 stocks and over 10x ADV on 4 stocks. 
Shorts have been covering positions on stocks where there are expected to be passive inflows and increasing positions on stocks that are expected to have passive outflows.


S&P/​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: High Impact Changes in March

Australia

Tietto Minerals Limited provides metal exploration and mining services. The Company focuses on development and exploration of gold projects. Tietto Minerals serves customers in West Africa.

Price Gauge
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Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Tietto Teraoka Seisakusho, Symbio, Celltrion Health, EOFlow

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2023: Haitong, Azure, Hollysys, Aeon, Teraoka, Tietto, Lithium Power

For the month of October, 7 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$4bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

There are 19 adds and 16 deletes across the S&P/ASX family of indices. On the larger names, passives need to buy 7-20x ADV while selling between 1...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period (Nearly) Complete

We forecast 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX100, 4 for the ASX 200 & 10 adds/7 deletes for the ASX300 in March. Adds have outperformed deletes...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: High Impact Changes in March

We currently see 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX100, 4 changes for the ASX 200 and 9 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March. Lots of...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Tietto Teraoka Seisakusho, Symbio, Celltrion Health, EOFlow

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2023: Haitong, Azure, Hollysys, Aeon, Teraoka, Tietto, Lithium Power

For the month of October, 7 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$4bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

There are 19 adds and 16 deletes across the S&P/ASX family of indices. On the larger names, passives need to buy 7-20x ADV while selling between 1...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period (Nearly) Complete

We forecast 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX100, 4 for the ASX 200 & 10 adds/7 deletes for the ASX300 in March. Adds have outperformed deletes...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: High Impact Changes in March

We currently see 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX100, 4 changes for the ASX 200 and 9 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March. Lots of...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period (Nearly) Complete

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: High Impact Changes in March