Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 28 potential inclusions to the HSCI in September, plus another 9 stocks that are close to the inclusion cutoff. Some stocks are already a part of Stock Connect.</li>
<li>There could be 22 deletions from the index on market cap, liquidity and prolonged suspension. Most of the deletions would be moved to the 'sell-only' Southbound Stock Connect list.</li>
<li>Some of the stocks that remain in the HSCI could move to the 'sell-only' Southbound Stock Connect list since their average market cap drops below HKD 5bn.</li>
</ul>


We see 28 potential inclusions to the HSCI in September, plus another 9 stocks that are close to the inclusion cutoff. Some stocks are already a part of Stock Connect.
There could be 22 deletions from the index on market cap, liquidity and prolonged suspension. Most of the deletions would be moved to the 'sell-only' Southbound Stock Connect list.
Some of the stocks that remain in the HSCI could move to the 'sell-only' Southbound Stock Connect list since their average market cap drops below HKD 5bn.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite the 21% spike in share price, we believe good student enrollment outlook and earnings prospects of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-education-group-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18218:1" rel="noopener">China Education Group (839 HK)</a> are still yet to be fully reflected.</li>
<li>The 70.1% YoY surge in approved top-up degree program quotas in China and the guidance for substantial quota increase for bachelor’s degree and junior college programs are both exciting.</li>
<li>Its comprehensive cooperation agreement with Bank of China Jiangxi Branch adds another peace of mind as this suggests support from the state and lowers regulatory risks, in our view.</li>
</ul>


Despite the 21% spike in share price, we believe good student enrollment outlook and earnings prospects of China Education Group (839 HK) are still yet to be fully reflected.
The 70.1% YoY surge in approved top-up degree program quotas in China and the guidance for substantial quota increase for bachelor’s degree and junior college programs are both exciting.
Its comprehensive cooperation agreement with Bank of China Jiangxi Branch adds another peace of mind as this suggests support from the state and lowers regulatory risks, in our view.


China Education Group (839 HK): Further Evidences for Underlying Health

China Huarong Asset Management / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see seven new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in June. One is already a part of Connect while five will be added to Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>We see 19 potential changes to the HSCI in September. Seven of the deletions are on market cap, four on liquidity, and eight due to prolonged trading suspension.</li>
<li>Some of the potential deletions have large Southbound holdings and some of these could be trimmed over the next couple of months.</li>
</ul>


We see seven new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in June. One is already a part of Connect while five will be added to Southbound Stock Connect.
We see 19 potential changes to the HSCI in September. Seven of the deletions are on market cap, four on liquidity, and eight due to prolonged trading suspension.
Some of the potential deletions have large Southbound holdings and some of these could be trimmed over the next couple of months.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in June and September

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Mar 11 based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were China Gas (384 HK), Dynam Japan (6889 HK), Tianli Education (1773 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were China Mobile (941 HK), China Gas (384 HK), Man Wah (1999 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Mar 11 based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were China Gas (384 HK), Dynam Japan (6889 HK), Tianli Education (1773 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were China Mobile (941 HK), China Gas (384 HK), Man Wah (1999 HK).


<ul>
<li>The review period for the March review of the HSCI ended on 31 December. There are a lot of new listings that should be included in the index.</li>
<li>SenseTime is a high probability inclusion to the index, though it will only be added to Stock Connect in July once it completes 6 months and 20 trading days.</li>
<li>Xpeng and Li Auto will be added to Stock Connect in Feb/March if they pass the velocity test. We see Li Auto as failing the test, while Xpeng is close.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March review of the HSCI ended on 31 December. There are a lot of new listings that should be included in the index.
SenseTime is a high probability inclusion to the index, though it will only be added to Stock Connect in July once it completes 6 months and 20 trading days.
Xpeng and Li Auto will be added to Stock Connect in Feb/March if they pass the velocity test. We see Li Auto as failing the test, while Xpeng is close.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Plenty of New Listings Should Be Included

China

Tianli Education International Holdings Limited operates as a private education service provider. The Company provides tutoring services for primary school students and pre-kindergarten children. Tianli Education International Holdings serves students in China.

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Tianli Education (1773 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

We see 28 potential adds and 9 close adds for the HSCI in September. There are 22 potential deletes on market cap, liquidity and prolonged...

Brian Freitas

China Education Group (839 HK): Further Evidences for Underlying Health

Solid growth in approved top-up degree quota brightens CEG's outlook. Even with share price spike, it still trades on cheap 7.1x PER for FY22, with...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in June and September

We forecast 7 adds to the HSCI in June. For the September rebalance, we forecast 19 adds & 19 deletes (7 on mkt cap, 4 on liquidity, 8 on long...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Buybacks: China Gas

We highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares in HK were China Gas (384 HK), Dynam Japan (6889 HK), Tianli Education (1773 HK)...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Plenty of New Listings Should Be Included

There could be up to 34 adds and 22 deletes for the HSCI in March based on market cap, liquidity and prolonged suspensions. A lot of new listings,...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

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