European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On November 29 (PUSU deadline), TI Fluid Systems agreed to a £1.04 billion ($1.32 billion) takeover by ABC Technologies, 4.4x EV/NTM EBITDA vs. comparables at 4.6x, 6.7x Fwd P/E.</li>
<li>Investors have flocked to this deal, as regulatory clearances do not seem particularly demanding.</li>
<li>Spread is 3.7%/11.98% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 30 March 2025). Taking 135.8p break, the implied probability of deal completion is 88.5%. Long.</li>
</ul>


On November 29 (PUSU deadline), TI Fluid Systems agreed to a £1.04 billion ($1.32 billion) takeover by ABC Technologies, 4.4x EV/NTM EBITDA vs. comparables at 4.6x, 6.7x Fwd P/E.
Investors have flocked to this deal, as regulatory clearances do not seem particularly demanding.
Spread is 3.7%/11.98% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 30 March 2025). Taking 135.8p break, the implied probability of deal completion is 88.5%. Long.


ABC/TI Fluid Systems: Offer Announcement, Interesting Annual Return

<ul>
<li>ABC Technologies has largely completed its due diligence and reiterated a potential offer price of 200p per share, which the TIFS Board is minded to recommend if confirmed. </li>
<li>After several extensions, tomorrow November 29 marks the final extension of the PUSU deadline. Spread has tightened over the last trading sessions in anticipation of a firm offer.</li>
<li>The 200p proposal values TIFS at 4.64x NTM EBITDA, above the 4.55x sector median, reflecting a fair valuation despite industry challenges like Chinese market weakness and fluctuating OEM shares.</li>
</ul>


ABC Technologies has largely completed its due diligence and reiterated a potential offer price of 200p per share, which the TIFS Board is minded to recommend if confirmed. 
After several extensions, tomorrow November 29 marks the final extension of the PUSU deadline. Spread has tightened over the last trading sessions in anticipation of a firm offer.
The 200p proposal values TIFS at 4.64x NTM EBITDA, above the 4.55x sector median, reflecting a fair valuation despite industry challenges like Chinese market weakness and fluctuating OEM shares.


ABC Technologies/TI Fluid Systems: Highly Likely Firm Offer by Tomorrow

Event-Driven Investment Opportunities, Special Situation Investments

Dalius Tauraitis

Event-Driven Investment Opportunities

Special Situation Investments

Focus on event-driven trades and low risk arbitrage opportunities with short term catalysts

<ul><li>ABC Technologies, backed by Apollo, offers £2/share for TI Fluid Systems, with a 13.5% gross spread and PUSU deadline on November 8.</li><li>Bain Capital, holding 28% of TIFS, supports the offer; Apollo's bid is 50% above pre-announcement prices.</li><li>Regulatory risk is minimal; TIFS acquisition aligns with Apollo's strategy, enhancing ABC's international expansion and product diversification.</li></ul>

ABC Technologies, backed by Apollo, offers £2/share for TI Fluid Systems, with a 13.5% gross spread and PUSU deadline on November 8.Bain Capital, holding 28% of TIFS, supports the offer; Apollo's bid is 50% above pre-announcement prices.Regulatory risk is minimal; TIFS acquisition aligns with Apollo's strategy, enhancing ABC's international expansion and product diversification.

TI Fluid Systems Targeted by ABC Technologies: 13.5% Merger Arbitrage Opportunity with Minimal Regulatory Risk

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ti-fluid-systems-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41309:1" rel="noopener">TI Fluid Systems (TIFS LN)</a> is trading at 10% gross spread to ABC (Apollo)'s Proposal, which the Board of TIFS would be minded to recommend if made firm.</li>
<li>Although TIFS has made notable strategic progress recently, and maintained margins despite tough conditions over the last years, the short-term car picture has gotten progressively worse.</li>
<li>200p implies 4.6x EV/NTM EBITDA versus global auto suppliers trading on a median of 4.4x and represents a good-value exit. I believe the deal will complete. Long.</li>
</ul>



TI Fluid Systems (TIFS LN) is trading at 10% gross spread to ABC (Apollo)'s Proposal, which the Board of TIFS would be minded to recommend if made firm.
Although TIFS has made notable strategic progress recently, and maintained margins despite tough conditions over the last years, the short-term car picture has gotten progressively worse.
200p implies 4.6x EV/NTM EBITDA versus global auto suppliers trading on a median of 4.4x and represents a good-value exit. I believe the deal will complete. Long.


ABC/TI Fluid Systems: 10% Gross Spread on a Highly Likely Deal

<ul><li>OCI N.V.'s expected mid-cycle EBITDA for the European Nitrogen business is clarified at $150m, affecting valuation calculations.</li><li>Currency Exchange International announced a new 5% share buyback authorization, with previous buyback pace remaining slow.</li><li>Grifols' potential reverse arbitrage trade involves long Class A shares, short Class B shares, amid merger considerations.</li></ul>

OCI N.V.'s expected mid-cycle EBITDA for the European Nitrogen business is clarified at $150m, affecting valuation calculations.Currency Exchange International announced a new 5% share buyback authorization, with previous buyback pace remaining slow.Grifols' potential reverse arbitrage trade involves long Class A shares, short Class B shares, amid merger considerations.

SSI Weekly: OCI's EBITDA Clarification, CURN Buyback, TIFS Deal, LTG Deadline, Grifols Trade

China

TI Fluid Systems PLC manufactures automotive parts. The Company offers fluid carrying systems, fuel tanks, filter tubes, modules, pumps, and sealed level sensors. TI Fluid Systems markets its products worldwide.

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TI Fluid Systems (TIFS LN)

ABC/TI Fluid Systems: Offer Announcement, Interesting Annual Return

On November 29 (PUSU deadline), TI Fluid Systems agreed to a £1.04 billion ($1.32 billion) takeover by ABC Technologies. Investors have flocked to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

ABC Technologies/TI Fluid Systems: Highly Likely Firm Offer by Tomorrow

ABC Technologies is considering offering 200p per share for TIFS, a valuation above sector median despite industry challenges. Tomorrow marks the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

TI Fluid Systems Targeted by ABC Technologies: 13.5% Merger Arbitrage Opportunity with Minimal Regulatory Risk

ABC Technologies, backed by Apollo, offers £2/share for TI Fluid Systems, with a 13.5% gross spread and PUSU deadline on November 8.

Special Situation Investments

ABC/TI Fluid Systems: 10% Gross Spread on a Highly Likely Deal

TI Fluid Systems (TIFS LN) trading at 10% gross spread to ABC (Apollo)'s Proposal, with Board likely to recommend if firm. Despite recent...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

SSI Weekly: OCI's EBITDA Clarification, CURN Buyback, TIFS Deal, LTG Deadline, Grifols Trade

OCI N.V.'s expected mid-cycle EBITDA for the European Nitrogen business is clarified at $150m, affecting valuation calculations.

Special Situation Investments

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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ABC/TI Fluid Systems: Offer Announcement, Interesting Annual Return

On November 29 (PUSU deadline), TI Fluid Systems agreed to a £1.04 billion ($1.32 billion) takeover by ABC Technologies. Investors have flocked to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

ABC Technologies/TI Fluid Systems: Highly Likely Firm Offer by Tomorrow

​ABC Technologies is considering offering 200p per share for TIFS, a valuation above sector median despite industry challenges. Tomorrow marks the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

TI Fluid Systems Targeted by ABC Technologies: 13.5% Merger Arbitrage Opportunity with Minimal Regulatory Risk

ABC Technologies, backed by Apollo, offers £2/share for TI Fluid Systems, with a 13.5% gross spread and PUSU deadline on November 8.

Special Situation Investments

ABC/TI Fluid Systems: 10% Gross Spread on a Highly Likely Deal

​TI Fluid Systems (TIFS LN) trading at 10% gross spread to ABC (Apollo)'s Proposal, with Board likely to recommend if firm. Despite recent...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

SSI Weekly: OCI's EBITDA Clarification, CURN Buyback, TIFS Deal, LTG Deadline, Grifols Trade

OCI N.V.'s expected mid-cycle EBITDA for the European Nitrogen business is clarified at $150m, affecting valuation calculations.

Special Situation Investments

ABC Technologies is considering offering 200p per share for TIFS, a valuation above sector median despite industry challenges. Tomorrow marks the...

TI Fluid Systems (TIFS LN) trading at 10% gross spread to ABC (Apollo)'s Proposal, with Board likely to recommend if firm. Despite recent...