Japanese news, equities, and trends, Teddy Letter

Teddy Okuyama

Japanese news, equities, and trends

Teddy Letter

We aim to fill the information gap on the Japan market, especially on small cap companies with little or no analyst coverage. While brokerages and sponsored research provide useful information, there is still an information divide between domestic and foreign investors. We aim to fill that gap by providing access to insights that are lost in translation.

Equity Bottom-Up

This is installment #7 of my 200-day challenge to do write-ups on 200 Japanese small caps, at the end of which I plan to publish a book (tentative title: Japan Small Caps Handbook). I’m writing these unedited versions in a stream of consciousness style, and they will be refined before being finalized later on.

This is installment #7 of my 200-day challenge to do write-ups on 200 Japanese small caps, at the end of which I plan to publish a book (tentative title: Japan Small Caps Handbook). I’m writing these unedited versions in a stream of consciousness style, and they will be refined before being finalized later on.

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

WeWork and Bow Capital SPAC (BOWX US) announced agreement on a SPAC merger that would allow WeWork to reach public markets in Q3 21 at a suggested post-money enterprise value of $9bn. Expectations for a deal of this magnitude have been well-telegraphed so the announcement is not a surprise whilst, since it is a SPAC deal, a lack of financial statements/history isn’t either. We do know how the $9bn value is being justified and it is a bit of a stretch: markets need to believe WeWork can double its in-office user base and triple overall users, even as ARPUs rise and the absolute level of operating costs declines. Meanwhile, the only public comparable <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iwg-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28219:1" rel="noopener">IWG PLC (IWG LN)</a>  is roughly the same size with the same resources but has yet to recover value lost to the pandemic.

WeWork and Bow Capital SPAC (BOWX US) announced agreement on a SPAC merger that would allow WeWork to reach public markets in Q3 21 at a suggested post-money enterprise value of $9bn. Expectations for a deal of this magnitude have been well-telegraphed so the announcement is not a surprise whilst, since it is a SPAC deal, a lack of financial statements/history isn’t either. We do know how the $9bn value is being justified and it is a bit of a stretch: markets need to believe WeWork can double its in-office user base and triple overall users, even as ARPUs rise and the absolute level of operating costs declines. Meanwhile, the only public comparable IWG PLC (IWG LN)  is roughly the same size with the same resources but has yet to recover value lost to the pandemic.

WeWork - Still Asking for Way More than They Are Worth

Softbank shares have returned to the pre-Coupang levels of early February, driven by increasing concerns about the value of the Vision Fund portfolio that remains private.  Number one on the list is the potential for second-order effects from the Greensill bankruptcy which not only cost Vision Fund $1.5bn in lost equity but also includes a further $1.2bn in debt exposure and a potential cash squeeze for other Vision Fund companies that were also clients.

Softbank shares have returned to the pre-Coupang levels of early February, driven by increasing concerns about the value of the Vision Fund portfolio that remains private.  Number one on the list is the potential for second-order effects from the Greensill bankruptcy which not only cost Vision Fund $1.5bn in lost equity but also includes a further $1.2bn in debt exposure and a potential cash squeeze for other Vision Fund companies that were also clients.

Softbank Group - Concerns on the Value of Private Vision Fund Assets Re-Surface

Coupang’s monster IPO is very likely to be the highlight of Vision Fund 1 and provides a solid counterpoint to the WeWork debacle early in the IPO cycle but there remains a significant number of portfolio companies still to come. At Q3 results, Softbank talked about an ongoing parade of companies coming to market with 10-15 annual events but there is a push to get companies to list whilst markets are still receptive and FY21 could see up to 20 companies hit public markets.That is positive for Softbank shares which tend to rise in anticipation of surfaced value, again assuming the IPO market remains open. It also serves to highlight the main risk for Softbank shares as a sustained tech sell-off would lower the value of the Vision Fund portfolio, increase concerns about Northstar and lower expectations for the current crop of IPO hopefuls.<h2>Highlights</h2>Softbank Vision Fund could see up to 20 companies hitting public markets 2021 should favorable conditions continue. Vision Fund says it is encouraging companies to go public whilst conditions are still receptive and Q4 (Mar) can already boast of two listings, a SPAC merger and two more listings in process. Leading candidates to go public include Didi Chuxing and GrabCoupang upside alone doubles total returns and will boost Vision Fund to its best quarter ever.  As of mid-March, Vision Fund’s public portfolio is up $27bn versus $13bn in Q2, $8bn in Q2 and $2bn in Q1. On the aggregate, it more than doubles the Vision Fund total return There may upside in the private portfolio too as Cruise raised funds in January at a 58% premium. It is usually a mug’s game trying to figure out where private valuations will end up but the Cruise stake is large enough to outweigh a lot of smaller changes for other portfolio companies. Cruise raised $2bn in January at a $30bn valuation, a 58% premium to where Softbank invested and a possible $1.3bn unrealized gain ($2.25bn &gt; $3.55bn)Portfolio company View went public through a SPAC merger but at an apparent loss for Vision Fund.  Smart glass maker View’s SPAC merger closed 9 March, the day before the Coupang IPO but it appears Softbank’s original $1.1bn investment is worth barely half that. That is a fraction of the Coupang upside but is a reminder that valuations can go both ways. Other problem investments include Greensill, Katerra, Oyo and OakNorth

Coupang’s monster IPO is very likely to be the highlight of Vision Fund 1 and provides a solid counterpoint to the WeWork debacle early in the IPO cycle but there remains a significant number of portfolio companies still to come. At Q3 results, Softbank talked about an ongoing parade of companies coming to market with 10-15 annual events but there is a push to get companies to list whilst markets are still receptive and FY21 could see up to 20 companies hit public markets.That is positive for Softbank shares which tend to rise in anticipation of surfaced value, again assuming the IPO market remains open. It also serves to highlight the main risk for Softbank shares as a sustained tech sell-off would lower the value of the Vision Fund portfolio, increase concerns about Northstar and lower expectations for the current crop of IPO hopefuls.HighlightsSoftbank Vision Fund could see up to 20 companies hitting public markets 2021 should favorable conditions continue. Vision Fund says it is encouraging companies to go public whilst conditions are still receptive and Q4 (Mar) can already boast of two listings, a SPAC merger and two more listings in process. Leading candidates to go public include Didi Chuxing and GrabCoupang upside alone doubles total returns and will boost Vision Fund to its best quarter ever.  As of mid-March, Vision Fund’s public portfolio is up $27bn versus $13bn in Q2, $8bn in Q2 and $2bn in Q1. On the aggregate, it more than doubles the Vision Fund total return There may upside in the private portfolio too as Cruise raised funds in January at a 58% premium. It is usually a mug’s game trying to figure out where private valuations will end up but the Cruise stake is large enough to outweigh a lot of smaller changes for other portfolio companies. Cruise raised $2bn in January at a $30bn valuation, a 58% premium to where Softbank invested and a possible $1.3bn unrealized gain ($2.25bn &gt; $3.55bn)Portfolio company View went public through a SPAC merger but at an apparent loss for Vision Fund.  Smart glass maker View’s SPAC merger closed 9 March, the day before the Coupang IPO but it appears Softbank’s original $1.1bn investment is worth barely half that. That is a fraction of the Coupang upside but is a reminder that valuations can go both ways. Other problem investments include Greensill, Katerra, Oyo and OakNorth

Softbank Group - Vision Fund’s Race to Liquidity

Softbank Group shares jumped 5% on news the company is mulling a “slow burn” buyout which apparently consists of ongoing buybacks until CEO Son’s current holdings are enough to squeeze out minorities. At the current share price, which would likely be impossible to maintain absent a market selloff, Softbank could just barely get that done with cash from recent asset sales but there would be no money left over for further investments. We think this is unlikely but a steady buyback policy would be great news in itself.

Softbank Group shares jumped 5% on news the company is mulling a “slow burn” buyout which apparently consists of ongoing buybacks until CEO Son’s current holdings are enough to squeeze out minorities. At the current share price, which would likely be impossible to maintain absent a market selloff, Softbank could just barely get that done with cash from recent asset sales but there would be no money left over for further investments. We think this is unlikely but a steady buyback policy would be great news in itself.

Softbank Group - Slow Burn Buyout Unlikely but Helps with the Discount so that Is Good

United States

WeWork Inc. provides co-working spaces for individuals and entrepreneurs. The Company offers private offices, office suites, headquarters, and custom build out options to fit a variety of office needs, as well as desk spaces and conference rooms. WeWork serves customers worldwide.

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WeWork (WEWKQ US)

Day 7: TKP Corporation (3479)

This is installment #7 of my 200-day challenge to do write-ups on 200 Japanese small caps, at the end of which I plan to publish a book (tentative...

Teddy Okuyama

WeWork - Still Asking for Way More than They Are Worth

WeWork's SPAC deal values it at $9bn but predictably that is too high. We look at fundamental reasons why although as a SPAC merger, values depend...

Kirk Boodry

Softbank Group - Concerns on the Value of Private Vision Fund Assets Re-Surface

Softbank shares have returned to the pre-Coupang levels of early February, driven by increasing concerns about the value of the Vision Fund...

Kirk Boodry

Softbank Group - Vision Fund’s Race to Liquidity

Vision Fund is pushing portfolio companies to go public (up to 20 this year!) which should help the discount but also depends a lot on how tech...

Kirk Boodry

Softbank Group - Slow Burn Buyout Unlikely but Helps with the Discount so that Is Good

Softbank shares jumped 5% on news it is mulling a “slow burn” buyout which consists of ongoing buybacks without a formal offer. This seems unlikely...

Kirk Boodry

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