Softbank Group - Concerns on the Value of Private Vision Fund Assets Re-Surface

WeWork - Still Asking for Way More than They Are Worth

Softbank – Is Archegos the Bear Stearns CDO Funds in the Coalmine?

Coupang IPO and Softbank Group - A Vision Fund Jewel Emerges but It Is Pricey

Softbank Group - Vision Fund Ups and Downs: Coupang and Greensill

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Coupang’s monster IPO is very likely to be the highlight of Vision Fund 1 and provides a solid counterpoint to the WeWork debacle early in the IPO cycle but there remains a significant number of portfolio companies still to come. At Q3 results, Softbank talked about an ongoing parade of companies coming to market with 10-15 annual events but there is a push to get companies to list whilst markets are still receptive and FY21 could see up to 20 companies hit public markets.That is positive for Softbank shares which tend to rise in anticipation of surfaced value, again assuming the IPO market remains open. It also serves to highlight the main risk for Softbank shares as a sustained tech sell-off would lower the value of the Vision Fund portfolio, increase concerns about Northstar and lower expectations for the current crop of IPO hopefuls.<h2>Highlights</h2>Softbank Vision Fund could see up to 20 companies hitting public markets 2021 should favorable conditions continue. Vision Fund says it is encouraging companies to go public whilst conditions are still receptive and Q4 (Mar) can already boast of two listings, a SPAC merger and two more listings in process. Leading candidates to go public include Didi Chuxing and GrabCoupang upside alone doubles total returns and will boost Vision Fund to its best quarter ever.  As of mid-March, Vision Fund’s public portfolio is up $27bn versus $13bn in Q2, $8bn in Q2 and $2bn in Q1. On the aggregate, it more than doubles the Vision Fund total return There may upside in the private portfolio too as Cruise raised funds in January at a 58% premium. It is usually a mug’s game trying to figure out where private valuations will end up but the Cruise stake is large enough to outweigh a lot of smaller changes for other portfolio companies. Cruise raised $2bn in January at a $30bn valuation, a 58% premium to where Softbank invested and a possible $1.3bn unrealized gain ($2.25bn &gt; $3.55bn)Portfolio company View went public through a SPAC merger but at an apparent loss for Vision Fund.  Smart glass maker View’s SPAC merger closed 9 March, the day before the Coupang IPO but it appears Softbank’s original $1.1bn investment is worth barely half that. That is a fraction of the Coupang upside but is a reminder that valuations can go both ways. Other problem investments include Greensill, Katerra, Oyo and OakNorth

Coupang’s monster IPO is very likely to be the highlight of Vision Fund 1 and provides a solid counterpoint to the WeWork debacle early in the IPO cycle but there remains a significant number of portfolio companies still to come. At Q3 results, Softbank talked about an ongoing parade of companies coming to market with 10-15 annual events but there is a push to get companies to list whilst markets are still receptive and FY21 could see up to 20 companies hit public markets.That is positive for Softbank shares which tend to rise in anticipation of surfaced value, again assuming the IPO market remains open. It also serves to highlight the main risk for Softbank shares as a sustained tech sell-off would lower the value of the Vision Fund portfolio, increase concerns about Northstar and lower expectations for the current crop of IPO hopefuls.HighlightsSoftbank Vision Fund could see up to 20 companies hitting public markets 2021 should favorable conditions continue. Vision Fund says it is encouraging companies to go public whilst conditions are still receptive and Q4 (Mar) can already boast of two listings, a SPAC merger and two more listings in process. Leading candidates to go public include Didi Chuxing and GrabCoupang upside alone doubles total returns and will boost Vision Fund to its best quarter ever.  As of mid-March, Vision Fund’s public portfolio is up $27bn versus $13bn in Q2, $8bn in Q2 and $2bn in Q1. On the aggregate, it more than doubles the Vision Fund total return There may upside in the private portfolio too as Cruise raised funds in January at a 58% premium. It is usually a mug’s game trying to figure out where private valuations will end up but the Cruise stake is large enough to outweigh a lot of smaller changes for other portfolio companies. Cruise raised $2bn in January at a $30bn valuation, a 58% premium to where Softbank invested and a possible $1.3bn unrealized gain ($2.25bn &gt; $3.55bn)Portfolio company View went public through a SPAC merger but at an apparent loss for Vision Fund.  Smart glass maker View’s SPAC merger closed 9 March, the day before the Coupang IPO but it appears Softbank’s original $1.1bn investment is worth barely half that. That is a fraction of the Coupang upside but is a reminder that valuations can go both ways. Other problem investments include Greensill, Katerra, Oyo and OakNorth

Softbank Group - Vision Fund’s Race to Liquidity