TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><p>We have been longtime fans of Netflix the product and Netflix’s management team can rightfully be described as visionary. They had the vision to have the public markets fund an experiment in business models that appears now set to breakeven on FCF in 2021. Over the course of the past year we have gone from being short Netflix to long Netflix beginning this past summer, which has played out...and now we return to the sidelines (but not interested in reshorting Netflix), as we think to get more bullish on Netflix from here requires greater clarity on future revenue optionality around gaming and consumer products. The increasingly saturated streaming space means Netflix will only be growing subs ~10% for the forseeable future, with most of that growth from lower priced regions, while it will be investing with a vengeance to drive more content, likely capping expectations for continued margin expansion and FCF.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  </p></div></div></div>

We have been longtime fans of Netflix the product and Netflix’s management team can rightfully be described as visionary. They had the vision to have the public markets fund an experiment in business models that appears now set to breakeven on FCF in 2021. Over the course of the past year we have gone from being short Netflix to long Netflix beginning this past summer, which has played out...and now we return to the sidelines (but not interested in reshorting Netflix), as we think to get more bullish on Netflix from here requires greater clarity on future revenue optionality around gaming and consumer products. The increasingly saturated streaming space means Netflix will only be growing subs ~10% for the forseeable future, with most of that growth from lower priced regions, while it will be investing with a vengeance to drive more content, likely capping expectations for continued margin expansion and FCF.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  

Research on International Stock Ideas, Value Punks

Value Punks

Research on International Stock Ideas

Value Punks’ mission is to deliver institutional-grade research on international stock ideas in a digestible, reader-friendly format.

At Value Punks, we blend our background in traditional value-investing with an openness to embrace a constantly and rapidly evolving investment and business landscape.

Institutional-Grade Research

<ul><li>Not so long ago, Disney's share price was nearing the $200 mark, despite the pandemic's severe impact on its Parks and Resorts business.</li><li>Fast forward to the present, and even with the parks posting record results, Disney's share price has fallen to levels not seen in a decade, raising the question: what happened?</li><li>Several factors are at play, including challenges within the studio arm, ongoing decline of its legacy media operations, and Big Tech’s incursion into sports media.</li></ul>

Not so long ago, Disney's share price was nearing the $200 mark, despite the pandemic's severe impact on its Parks and Resorts business.Fast forward to the present, and even with the parks posting record results, Disney's share price has fallen to levels not seen in a decade, raising the question: what happened?Several factors are at play, including challenges within the studio arm, ongoing decline of its legacy media operations, and Big Tech’s incursion into sports media.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>The Walt Disney Company delivered mixed results in the quarter, with revenues well below analyst expectations, but managed an earnings beat.</li><li>The company made significant management adjustments and productivity enhancements to develop a more economical, coordinated, and streamlined approach to operations.</li><li>Disney+ core subscribers increased during the quarter, with foreign growth more than balancing small domestic net losses.</li></ul>

The Walt Disney Company delivered mixed results in the quarter, with revenues well below analyst expectations, but managed an earnings beat.The company made significant management adjustments and productivity enhancements to develop a more economical, coordinated, and streamlined approach to operations.Disney+ core subscribers increased during the quarter, with foreign growth more than balancing small domestic net losses.

The Walt Disney Company: Radical Changes That Turned Disney Into an Entertainment Powerhouse! - Major Drivers

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, raised around US$420m in its Hong Kong IPO in Dec 21. The IPO was almost entirely taken up by cornerstones.</li>
<li>The company had also earlier obtained investments from Baidu and Alibaba, along with other mainly PE investors. These investors will be released from their lock-up on 1st Jun 2022.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates over the past few months.</li>
</ul>


Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, raised around US$420m in its Hong Kong IPO in Dec 21. The IPO was almost entirely taken up by cornerstones.
The company had also earlier obtained investments from Baidu and Alibaba, along with other mainly PE investors. These investors will be released from their lock-up on 1st Jun 2022.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates over the past few months.


Cloud Village IPO Lock-Up - Selling the PE Stock (US$350m) Might Solve the Liquidity Issues

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The founder and former chairman and CEO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16032:1" rel="noopener">Nexon (3659 JP)</a> passed away according to both Nexon and his holding company NXC. Both announced it late afternoon 1 March.</li>
<li>NXC - the near-parent  (47+% stake) of Nexon tried to sell Nexon/NXC in H1 2019 to no avail. Since then, profits have rebounded somewhat, and investments have multiplied. </li>
<li>The estate may wish to sell Nexon shares, or its entire stake, at some point near-term.</li>
</ul>


The founder and former chairman and CEO of Nexon (3659 JP) passed away according to both Nexon and his holding company NXC. Both announced it late afternoon 1 March.
NXC - the near-parent  (47+% stake) of Nexon tried to sell Nexon/NXC in H1 2019 to no avail. Since then, profits have rebounded somewhat, and investments have multiplied. 
The estate may wish to sell Nexon shares, or its entire stake, at some point near-term.


Nexon - Founder Kim Jung-Ju Passes, Raises Question if Nexon Deal Is Back In Play

United States

The Walt Disney Company is an entertainment company that conducts operations in media networks, studio entertainment, theme parks and resorts, consumer products, and interactive media. The Company produces motion pictures, television programs, and musical recordings, as well as books and magazines.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

The Walt Disney Co (DIS US)

Netflix 3Q21: Saved By Squid Game

Over the course of the past year we have gone from being short Netflix to long Netflix...and now we return to the sidelines. We need greater...

Aaron Gabin

The Walt Disney Company (DIS): Part 1

Not so long ago, Disney's share price was nearing the $200 mark, despite the pandemic's severe impact on its Parks and Resorts business.

Value Punks

The Walt Disney Company: Radical Changes That Turned Disney Into an Entertainment Powerhouse! - Major Drivers

The Walt Disney Company delivered mixed results in the quarter, with revenues well below analyst expectations, but managed an earnings beat. The...

Baptista Research

Cloud Village IPO Lock-Up - Selling the PE Stock (US$350m) Might Solve the Liquidity Issues

Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, raised around US$420m in its Hong Kong IPO in Dec 21. Investors will be released from their...

Sumeet Singh

Nexon - Founder Kim Jung-Ju Passes, Raises Question if Nexon Deal Is Back In Play

Nexon's founder Kim Jung-ju has passed away. This raises the question of the disposition of the 47+% stake belonging to his holding company NXC. If...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)