Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The magic of Disney is lost. It is time to find it again.</li>
<li>In this insight, we discuss the major reasons of why we believe Disney could be the next major M&amp;A target after Twitter Inc (TWTR US).</li>
<li>Disney needs to focus on its core competency which is providing great contents rather than publicly confronting politicians on highly sensitive issues.</li>
</ul>


The magic of Disney is lost. It is time to find it again.
In this insight, we discuss the major reasons of why we believe Disney could be the next major M&amp;A target after Twitter Inc (TWTR US).
Disney needs to focus on its core competency which is providing great contents rather than publicly confronting politicians on highly sensitive issues.


TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Netflix management came off as unprepared for its current circumstances. Ramping competition and TAM saturation have been known for 2 years.</li>
<li>Competitive responses sounded half baked: increasing price to deter password sharing and launching advertising tiers...in 2 years?</li>
<li>The viability of the longterm growth algorithm and 10 year DCFs that Netflix investors have leaned on for years has been rightfully vaporized. </li>
</ul>


Netflix management came off as unprepared for its current circumstances. Ramping competition and TAM saturation have been known for 2 years.
Competitive responses sounded half baked: increasing price to deter password sharing and launching advertising tiers...in 2 years?
The viability of the longterm growth algorithm and 10 year DCFs that Netflix investors have leaned on for years has been rightfully vaporized. 


House of Market Insights, Market Radar

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

Quick Market Updates

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Nasdaq 100 is trading below the 200-day MA since mid-January. Now the index is trying to go back above the MA for the second time in a couple of months.</li>
<li>Russell 2000 index did nothing in the last 15 months. For one year it traded in a rectangle, than it broke to the downside, a clear bearish signal.</li>
<li>Semis is one of the hottest sector of the moment, as the chip demand increased heavily in the last two years.</li>
</ul>


Nasdaq 100 is trading below the 200-day MA since mid-January. Now the index is trying to go back above the MA for the second time in a couple of months.
Russell 2000 index did nothing in the last 15 months. For one year it traded in a rectangle, than it broke to the downside, a clear bearish signal.
Semis is one of the hottest sector of the moment, as the chip demand increased heavily in the last two years.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>New data from Deloitte shows US streaming subscription churn is 35% and over 50% for younger demographics. Whoa!</li>
<li>Competition for attention and competition for the wallet are causes, a combination of the volume of streaming services combined with social media, gaming, and UGC....many of which are free. </li>
<li>The LT takeaway is streaming services likely have to rely on free-ad supported tiers to retain customers. Higher customer acquisition costs and lower multiple ad revenues not good for streamers.</li>
</ul>


New data from Deloitte shows US streaming subscription churn is 35% and over 50% for younger demographics. Whoa!
Competition for attention and competition for the wallet are causes, a combination of the volume of streaming services combined with social media, gaming, and UGC....many of which are free. 
The LT takeaway is streaming services likely have to rely on free-ad supported tiers to retain customers. Higher customer acquisition costs and lower multiple ad revenues not good for streamers.


European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Apollo approached educational conglomerate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pearson-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:680:1" rel="noopener">Pearson Plc (PSON LN)</a> regarding a 854.2p prospective offer for 100%, rejected by the Board. Value creation should come from further divesting businesses. <strong>PUSU deadline</strong> is <strong>8 April</strong>. </li>
<li>Cevian, top shareholder, has a 10.24% stake, and bargaining power (it could prevent a delisting). Using DCF, base-case TP is 742p, best case is 834p. Comps-based valuation is 815p.</li>
<li>The market's gone beyond initial doubts, shares closed at 827.6p on 15 March (3.3% gross spread), betting Apollo will succeed (probably raising the offer). The CDS market already believed it.</li>
</ul>


Apollo approached educational conglomerate Pearson Plc (PSON LN) regarding a 854.2p prospective offer for 100%, rejected by the Board. Value creation should come from further divesting businesses. PUSU deadline is 8 April. 
Cevian, top shareholder, has a 10.24% stake, and bargaining power (it could prevent a delisting). Using DCF, base-case TP is 742p, best case is 834p. Comps-based valuation is 815p.
The market's gone beyond initial doubts, shares closed at 827.6p on 15 March (3.3% gross spread), betting Apollo will succeed (probably raising the offer). The CDS market already believed it.


United States

The Walt Disney Company is an entertainment company that conducts operations in media networks, studio entertainment, theme parks and resorts, consumer products, and interactive media. The Company produces motion pictures, television programs, and musical recordings, as well as books and magazines.

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The Walt Disney Co (DIS US)

Raiders of the Lost Disney

The magic of Disney is lost. It is time to find it again. In this insight, we discuss the major reasons of why we believe Disney could be the next...

Douglas Kim

Netflix 1Q22: Willfull Ignorance

Netflix management seemed unprepared for its current circumstances. Ramping competition and TAM saturation have been known for 2 years. Competitive...

Aaron Gabin

Charts to Watch.

Nasdaq 100 is trading below the 200-day MA since mid-January. Now the index is trying to go back above the MA for the second time in a couple of...

Market Radar

Streaming's New Hamster Wheel

New data shows US streaming subscription churn is 35% and over 50% for younger demographics. To compete, streamers will have to rely more on free...

Aaron Gabin

Apollo/Pearson: Prospective Offer

Apollo confirmed it is evaluating a cash offer for Pearson, which rejected a second 854p approach. PUSU deadline is 8 April. On a best-case...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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