Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

The Shanghai Commerical & Sa / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Wildly improving credit metrics, with NPL coverage now at 1,144% in 1Q23</li>
<li>Core net interest income is strong for past 3 quarters, now at +31% YoY</li>
<li>Key line item deltas can continue, suggesting ROA to surpass 1.0% soon</li>
</ul>


Wildly improving credit metrics, with NPL coverage now at 1,144% in 1Q23
Core net interest income is strong for past 3 quarters, now at +31% YoY
Key line item deltas can continue, suggesting ROA to surpass 1.0% soon


The Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank - Far Stronger Credit Metrics, 31% Net Interest Income Growth

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take look at Quiddity's expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>I currently see 5 ADDs and 4 DELs but some of these names are different from what we had last time (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-tdiv-dec-24-5-adds-4-dels-likely-us-1-38bn-one-way" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a>).</li>
<li>The current estimate for one-way flow in December 2024 is US$1.54bn.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take look at Quiddity's expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2024 index rebal event.
I currently see 5 ADDs and 4 DELs but some of these names are different from what we had last time (link).
The current estimate for one-way flow in December 2024 is US$1.54bn.


Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: Trade Successful; +9.5% in Three Weeks; More Upside Possible.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Using data from the close on 15 November, there could be 6 adds and 5 deletes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.</li>
<li>There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 16.9% and a one-way trade of TWD 57.5bn (US$1.77bn).</li>
<li>Short interest is at the highs in most forecast deletes, while the trend is mixed among the potential inclusions.</li>
</ul>


Using data from the close on 15 November, there could be 6 adds and 5 deletes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 16.9% and a one-way trade of TWD 57.5bn (US$1.77bn).
Short interest is at the highs in most forecast deletes, while the trend is mixed among the potential inclusions.


Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 6 Adds, 5 Deletes, Capping, US$3.5bn Trade

<ul>
<li>Using data from the close on 11 October, there could be 6 adds and 5 deletes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.</li>
<li>There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 15% and a one-way trade of TWD 49bn (US$1.52bn)</li>
<li>Shorts have been building up in some of the forecast deletes and in a couple of the forecast adds as well.</li>
</ul>


Using data from the close on 11 October, there could be 6 adds and 5 deletes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 15% and a one-way trade of TWD 49bn (US$1.52bn)
Shorts have been building up in some of the forecast deletes and in a couple of the forecast adds as well.


Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Big Impact and US$3bn Round-Trip Trade

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take look at Quiddity's expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>I currently see 5 ADDs and 4 DELs but there are several names close to the border and expectations could change before the base date as prices move around.</li>
<li>The current estimate for one-way flow in December 2024 is US$1.38bn.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take look at Quiddity's expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2024 index rebal event.
I currently see 5 ADDs and 4 DELs but there are several names close to the border and expectations could change before the base date as prices move around.
The current estimate for one-way flow in December 2024 is US$1.38bn.


Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: 5 ADDs/4 DELs Likely; US$1.38bn One-Way

Taiwan

The Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank, Ltd. provides commercial banking services with a global presence. The Bank attracts deposits from the general public and uses those funds to originate a variety of loans. SCSB supports businesses by providing trade financing and foreign exchange services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

The Shanghai Commerical & Sa (5876 TT)

The Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank - Far Stronger Credit Metrics, 31% Net Interest Income Growth

Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank shows 31% net interest income growth YoY in 1Q23 and dramatically lower credit costs. It is likely to see ROA...

Daniel Tabbush

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: Trade Successful; +9.5% in Three Weeks; More Upside Possible.

The base date for the TDIV Dec24 rebal is 25th December 2024 (next Monday). The trade suggested in this insight has been performing very well and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 6 Adds, 5 Deletes, Capping, US$3.5bn Trade

There could be 6 adds, 5 deletes, capping and funding changes, leading to a one-way turnover of 16.9% and a round-trip trade of US$3.55bn. There...

Brian Freitas

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Big Impact and US$3bn Round-Trip Trade

The ETF could have 6 adds and 5 deletes in Dec. There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 15% and a...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: 5 ADDs/4 DELs Likely; US$1.38bn One-Way

The top 5 expected Inflow and Outflow names have more than 5x ADV to buy. However, the inflow names have been underperforming the outflow names for...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank - Far Stronger Credit Metrics, 31% Net Interest Income Growth

Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank shows 31% net interest income growth YoY in 1Q23 and dramatically lower credit costs. It is likely to see ROA...

Daniel Tabbush

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: Trade Successful; +9.5% in Three Weeks; More Upside Possible.

The base date for the TDIV Dec24 rebal is 25th December 2024 (next Monday). The trade suggested in this insight has been performing very well and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 6 Adds, 5 Deletes, Capping, US$3.5bn Trade

There could be 6 adds, 5 deletes, capping and funding changes, leading to a one-way turnover of 16.9% and a round-trip trade of US$3.55bn. There...

Brian Freitas

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Big Impact and US$3bn Round-Trip Trade

The ETF could have 6 adds and 5 deletes in Dec. There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 15% and a...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: 5 ADDs/4 DELs Likely; US$1.38bn One-Way

The top 5 expected Inflow and Outflow names have more than 5x ADV to buy. However, the inflow names have been underperforming the outflow names for...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 6 Adds, 5 Deletes, Capping, US$3.5bn Trade

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Big Impact and US$3bn Round-Trip Trade