Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

The Shanghai Commerical & Sa / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Wildly improving credit metrics, with NPL coverage now at 1,144% in 1Q23</li>
<li>Core net interest income is strong for past 3 quarters, now at +31% YoY</li>
<li>Key line item deltas can continue, suggesting ROA to surpass 1.0% soon</li>
</ul>


Wildly improving credit metrics, with NPL coverage now at 1,144% in 1Q23
Core net interest income is strong for past 3 quarters, now at +31% YoY
Key line item deltas can continue, suggesting ROA to surpass 1.0% soon


The Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank - Far Stronger Credit Metrics, 31% Net Interest Income Growth

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take look at Quiddity's expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>I currently see 5 ADDs and 4 DELs but some of these names are different from what we had last time (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-tdiv-dec-24-5-adds-4-dels-likely-us-1-38bn-one-way" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a>).</li>
<li>The current estimate for one-way flow in December 2024 is US$1.54bn.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take look at Quiddity's expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2024 index rebal event.
I currently see 5 ADDs and 4 DELs but some of these names are different from what we had last time (link).
The current estimate for one-way flow in December 2024 is US$1.54bn.


Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: Trade Successful; +9.5% in Three Weeks; More Upside Possible.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Using data from the close on 11 October, there could be 6 adds and 5 deletes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.</li>
<li>There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 15% and a one-way trade of TWD 49bn (US$1.52bn)</li>
<li>Shorts have been building up in some of the forecast deletes and in a couple of the forecast adds as well.</li>
</ul>


Using data from the close on 11 October, there could be 6 adds and 5 deletes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 15% and a one-way trade of TWD 49bn (US$1.52bn)
Shorts have been building up in some of the forecast deletes and in a couple of the forecast adds as well.


Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Big Impact and US$3bn Round-Trip Trade

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take look at Quiddity's expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>I currently see 5 ADDs and 4 DELs but there are several names close to the border and expectations could change before the base date as prices move around.</li>
<li>The current estimate for one-way flow in December 2024 is US$1.38bn.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take look at Quiddity's expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2024 index rebal event.
I currently see 5 ADDs and 4 DELs but there are several names close to the border and expectations could change before the base date as prices move around.
The current estimate for one-way flow in December 2024 is US$1.38bn.


Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: 5 ADDs/4 DELs Likely; US$1.38bn One-Way

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jan 26th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD66.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Unimicron Tech, Global Unichip, Acer, Inventec, Wistron, Realtek Semi.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jan 26th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD66.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Unimicron Tech, Global Unichip, Acer, Inventec, Wistron, Realtek Semi.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jan 26th): Unimicron Tech, Global Unichip, Acer, Inventec, Wistron

Taiwan

The Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank, Ltd. provides commercial banking services with a global presence. The Bank attracts deposits from the general public and uses those funds to originate a variety of loans. SCSB supports businesses by providing trade financing and foreign exchange services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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The Shanghai Commerical & Sa (5876 TT)

The Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank - Far Stronger Credit Metrics, 31% Net Interest Income Growth

Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank shows 31% net interest income growth YoY in 1Q23 and dramatically lower credit costs. It is likely to see ROA...

Daniel Tabbush

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: Trade Successful; +9.5% in Three Weeks; More Upside Possible.

The LONG-SHORT trade focusing deep-in-the-money ADDs and DELs has delivered strong market-neutral returns over the last few weeks and we see more...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Big Impact and US$3bn Round-Trip Trade

The ETF could have 6 adds and 5 deletes in Dec. There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 15% and a...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: 5 ADDs/4 DELs Likely; US$1.38bn One-Way

The top 5 expected Inflow and Outflow names have more than 5x ADV to buy. However, the inflow names have been underperforming the outflow names for...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jan 26th): Unimicron Tech, Global Unichip, Acer, Inventec, Wistron

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Unimicron Tech, Global Unichip, Acer, Inventec,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank - Far Stronger Credit Metrics, 31% Net Interest Income Growth

Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank shows 31% net interest income growth YoY in 1Q23 and dramatically lower credit costs. It is likely to see ROA...

Daniel Tabbush

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: Trade Successful; +9.5% in Three Weeks; More Upside Possible.

The LONG-SHORT trade focusing deep-in-the-money ADDs and DELs has delivered strong market-neutral returns over the last few weeks and we see more...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Big Impact and US$3bn Round-Trip Trade

The ETF could have 6 adds and 5 deletes in Dec. There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 15% and a...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: 5 ADDs/4 DELs Likely; US$1.38bn One-Way

The top 5 expected Inflow and Outflow names have more than 5x ADV to buy. However, the inflow names have been underperforming the outflow names for...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jan 26th): Unimicron Tech, Global Unichip, Acer, Inventec, Wistron

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Unimicron Tech, Global Unichip, Acer, Inventec,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Big Impact and US$3bn Round-Trip Trade