Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p>DXY bear call from 101 is nearing our macro target at 88.50 where we see at least an intermediate rally cycle unfolding. DXY roadmap is outlined. Any USD rise is unlikely to provide major headwinds for EM equities until we clear the 92 handle.</p><p>Macro Euro cycle peak target outlined in the weekly chart.</p><p>Top bets to front run a DXY low are seen in TRY, BRL, AUD and GBP. We are taking off our USD/SGD short within our Asian transition scenario.</p><p>USD downside looks limited as down trends in Asia lose bear momentum/conviction as bull divergence takes shape. Can weaker Asian FX turn ahead or a DXY low? The Peso is leading the USD bull turn making the SGD more vulnerable. Korea's Won chart decline is maturing. MYR and CNH long vs the dollar still have more gas.</p><p>A domino USD bottoming cycle is due in February with a backfill and re test touted into March which should complete an intermediate equity peak, commodity peak and USD low.</p>

DXY bear call from 101 is nearing our macro target at 88.50 where we see at least an intermediate rally cycle unfolding. DXY roadmap is outlined. Any USD rise is unlikely to provide major headwinds for EM equities until we clear the 92 handle.Macro Euro cycle peak target outlined in the weekly chart.Top bets to front run a DXY low are seen in TRY, BRL, AUD and GBP. We are taking off our USD/SGD short within our Asian transition scenario.USD downside looks limited as down trends in Asia lose bear momentum/conviction as bull divergence takes shape. Can weaker Asian FX turn ahead or a DXY low? The Peso is leading the USD bull turn making the SGD more vulnerable. Korea's Won chart decline is maturing. MYR and CNH long vs the dollar still have more gas.A domino USD bottoming cycle is due in February with a backfill and re test touted into March which should complete an intermediate equity peak, commodity peak and USD low.

Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight"><p>Our next batch of non-consensus calls for 2018 shifts gears to emerging markets.</p><p>Specifically: </p><ul><li>India will regain its crown as the fastest growing major EM;</li><li>Our favourite EM however is Egypt who is now on course to decisively recover from its 2015/2016 crisis;</li><li>Our least favourite EM is Turkey whose economic chickens will come home to roost this year;</li><li>The MYR still looks cheap relative to fundamentals and remains our favourite EM currency pick;</li><li>Likely to appear on the US Treasury's monitoring list in April, the THB also looks set for healthy gains.</li></ul><p>Part three will follow next week. </p></div>

Our next batch of non-consensus calls for 2018 shifts gears to emerging markets.Specifically: India will regain its crown as the fastest growing major EM;Our favourite EM however is Egypt who is now on course to decisively recover from its 2015/2016 crisis;Our least favourite EM is Turkey whose economic chickens will come home to roost this year;The MYR still looks cheap relative to fundamentals and remains our favourite EM currency pick;Likely to appear on the US Treasury's monitoring list in April, the THB also looks set for healthy gains.Part three will follow next week. 

<div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>The US Treasury's latest semi-annual report on currency manipulation ignored Thailand. The authorities in Bangkok must be breathing a sigh of relief as Thailand is close meeting at least two, possibly even all three, of the criteria - bilateral deficit with the US,  size of current account surplus and increase in FX reserves - used to judge manipulation. With Thailand running the largest current account surplus of any major EM and further FX intervention increasingly likely to attract the US's</strong>…</p></div>

The US Treasury's latest semi-annual report on currency manipulation ignored Thailand. The authorities in Bangkok must be breathing a sigh of relief as Thailand is close meeting at least two, possibly even all three, of the criteria - bilateral deficit with the US,  size of current account surplus and increase in FX reserves - used to judge manipulation. With Thailand running the largest current account surplus of any major EM and further FX intervention increasingly likely to attract the US's…

<div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>The BIS's estimates of real effective exchange rates (REERs) have long been the gold standard for longer-run FX valuation. Our analysis of the REERs for 12 major emerging markets throws up some key findings for Asian investors. After Mexico, India's REER has seen the strongest appreciation momentum over the last 6 months. These gains leave India's REER looking easily the most expensive among our universe. At the other end of the spectrum, Turkey and Malaysia stand out as having the cheapest</strong>…</p></div>

The BIS's estimates of real effective exchange rates (REERs) have long been the gold standard for longer-run FX valuation. Our analysis of the REERs for 12 major emerging markets throws up some key findings for Asian investors. After Mexico, India's REER has seen the strongest appreciation momentum over the last 6 months. These gains leave India's REER looking easily the most expensive among our universe. At the other end of the spectrum, Turkey and Malaysia stand out as having the cheapest…

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>USA politics appears to be descending steadily into a quagmire of dysfunction, contributing to a weaker and more uncertain US economic outlook.  The USD has clearly broken its base since 2015, leaving investors wondering where the bottom is. The sliding USD has developed a life of its own that may be hard to stop.  The ECB tried to talk down the EUR today and failed.  While the market appears to be grabbing for safe havens (gold, Treasuries, JPY), the market is not necessarily feeling bad about the global economy.  In fact, it is feeling pretty good about emerging markets.  Global economic indicators are robust, and commodity prices are rising.  A number of Asian currencies have broken steady ranges to make new highs.  The MYR and THB are both stronger along with their equity markets.</em></p>

USA politics appears to be descending steadily into a quagmire of dysfunction, contributing to a weaker and more uncertain US economic outlook.  The USD has clearly broken its base since 2015, leaving investors wondering where the bottom is. The sliding USD has developed a life of its own that may be hard to stop.  The ECB tried to talk down the EUR today and failed.  While the market appears to be grabbing for safe havens (gold, Treasuries, JPY), the market is not necessarily feeling bad about the global economy.  In fact, it is feeling pretty good about emerging markets.  Global economic indicators are robust, and commodity prices are rising.  A number of Asian currencies have broken steady ranges to make new highs.  The MYR and THB are both stronger along with their equity markets.

Populist Pandering Hurts the Dollar; Emerging Markets Powering On

Thailand

The Thai baht is the official currency of Thailand. 

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THB (USDTHB CURNCY)

USD Short to Long Transition Cycle

DXY bear call from 101 is nearing our macro target at 88.50 where we see at least an intermediate rally cycle unfolding. DXY roadmap is outlined....

Thomas Schroeder

Global: 18 for '18 - Part 2

Our next batch of non-consensus calls for 2018 shifts gears to emerging markets. Specifically: India will regain its crown as the fastest...

Richard Iley

Thailand: Dodging A Bullet

The US Treasury's latest semi-annual report on currency manipulation ignored Thailand. The authorities in Bangkok must be breathing a sigh of...

Richard Iley

Emerging Markets: REER View Mirror

The BIS's estimates of real effective exchange rates (REERs) have long been the gold standard for longer-run FX valuation. Our analysis of the...

Richard Iley

Populist Pandering Hurts the Dollar; Emerging Markets Powering On

USA politics appears to be descending steadily into a quagmire of dysfunction, contributing to a weaker and more uncertain US economic outlook. ...

Greg Gibbs

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