Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) announced the selection of winners for the RE 2.1 program, totaling 2,145MW (EGCO at 448MW, GUNKUL at 319MW, GPSC at 192.9MW, TSE at 136.1MW, BGRIM at 51.1MW, and BANPU Next at 6.6MW), with the COD scheduled between 2026-30 (the COD of approximately 80% is in 2028-30).</li><li>This represents a marginal increase in capacity for mid-sized to large power operators, namely EGCO (6%), GPSC (1%), and BGRIM (1%), but it is significant for GUNKUL (around 22%) and TSE (around 56%), aligning with the upside risk to long-term earnings.</li><li>We view that the power sector continues to face headwinds (with SPP power stocks underperforming IPP stocks) due to the slower pace of the interest rate downcycle, delays in the PDP 2024 plan (the draft, which underwent a public hearing in mid-June 2024, may require additional revisions and approval from the Energy Policy and Planning Office (EPPO) and the Cabinet, expected no earlier than 1H25E), and market concerns over government intervention in electricity tariffs.</li></ul>

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) announced the selection of winners for the RE 2.1 program, totaling 2,145MW (EGCO at 448MW, GUNKUL at 319MW, GPSC at 192.9MW, TSE at 136.1MW, BGRIM at 51.1MW, and BANPU Next at 6.6MW), with the COD scheduled between 2026-30 (the COD of approximately 80% is in 2028-30).This represents a marginal increase in capacity for mid-sized to large power operators, namely EGCO (6%), GPSC (1%), and BGRIM (1%), but it is significant for GUNKUL (around 22%) and TSE (around 56%), aligning with the upside risk to long-term earnings.We view that the power sector continues to face headwinds (with SPP power stocks underperforming IPP stocks) due to the slower pace of the interest rate downcycle, delays in the PDP 2024 plan (the draft, which underwent a public hearing in mid-June 2024, may require additional revisions and approval from the Energy Policy and Planning Office (EPPO) and the Cabinet, expected no earlier than 1H25E), and market concerns over government intervention in electricity tariffs.

Industry Update Energy (Power) - DECEMBER 19, 2024

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>We continue to recommend a Buy for TSE, with the 2023E SOTP-based fair price of Bt3.28 reflecting both existing power projects and projects under construction.</li><li>While we have revised down the 2023E net profit forecast to reflect the delay in the commencement of the Onikoube power project in Japan, TSE’s share price still implies some upside thanks to the clearer investment plan regarding future power projects after the firm qualified for the Provincial Electricity Authority’s (PEA) technical round.</li><li>TSE targets gaining a total capacity of not less than 200MW from projects up for auction in 2023.</li></ul></div></div></div></div>

We continue to recommend a Buy for TSE, with the 2023E SOTP-based fair price of Bt3.28 reflecting both existing power projects and projects under construction.While we have revised down the 2023E net profit forecast to reflect the delay in the commencement of the Onikoube power project in Japan, TSE’s share price still implies some upside thanks to the clearer investment plan regarding future power projects after the firm qualified for the Provincial Electricity Authority’s (PEA) technical round.TSE targets gaining a total capacity of not less than 200MW from projects up for auction in 2023.

Thai Solar Energy Plc. (TSE) - Expects to Win Not Less than 200MW from Auctions in 2023

Thailand

Thai Solar Energy PCL is a power company that provides renewable energy solutions through the use of solar power.

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Thai Solar Energy (TSE TB)

Industry Update Energy (Power) - DECEMBER 19, 2024

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) announced the selection of winners for the RE 2.1 program, totaling 2,145MW (EGCO at 448MW, GUNKUL at 319MW,...

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Solar Energy Plc. (TSE) - Expects to Win Not Less than 200MW from Auctions in 2023

We continue to recommend a Buy for TSE, with the 2023E SOTP-based fair price of Bt3.28 reflecting both existing power projects and projects under...

Krungthai XSpring

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