Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Given the tighter rubber supply outlook, we remain bullish on the rubber price uptrend in 2024E, which should be an earnings catalyst for rubber stocks this year.</li><li>As for the stock under our coverage, i.e., NER (Outperform; FV at Bt6.52), its earnings are expected to grow by 36% YoY in 2024E.</li><li>It's worth noting that rubber prices exhibit a correlation with rubber stock prices of approximately 60-80%, factoring in the nature of the business and the varying revenue structures across products. </li></ul>

Given the tighter rubber supply outlook, we remain bullish on the rubber price uptrend in 2024E, which should be an earnings catalyst for rubber stocks this year.As for the stock under our coverage, i.e., NER (Outperform; FV at Bt6.52), its earnings are expected to grow by 36% YoY in 2024E.It's worth noting that rubber prices exhibit a correlation with rubber stock prices of approximately 60-80%, factoring in the nature of the business and the varying revenue structures across products. 

Rubber - Maintain Bullish View on Rubber Prices in 2024E

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hainan-rubber-industry-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10551:1" rel="noopener">China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH)</a> has despatched the offer document relating to its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/halcyon-agri-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18191:1" rel="noopener">Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)</a> MGO at US$0.315 or S$0.413 per share. The offer closes on 24 March.</li>
<li>The MGO has a 50%+ minimum acceptance condition which requires around 40% of minorities' acceptance rate (47% excluding the Gondobintoro Family).</li>
<li>We think that this is achievable as the offer is attractive. At the last close and for an early-April payment, the gross and annualised spread is 0.7% and 7.3%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH) has despatched the offer document relating to its Halcyon Agri (HACL SP) MGO at US$0.315 or S$0.413 per share. The offer closes on 24 March.
The MGO has a 50%+ minimum acceptance condition which requires around 40% of minorities' acceptance rate (47% excluding the Gondobintoro Family).
We think that this is achievable as the offer is attractive. At the last close and for an early-April payment, the gross and annualised spread is 0.7% and 7.3%, respectively.


Halcyon Agri (HACL SP): Offer Document Out, Offer Closes 24 March

<ul>
<li>The conditions precedent for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hainan-rubber-industry-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10551:1" rel="noopener">China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH)</a> to acquire 36.00% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/halcyon-agri-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18191:1" rel="noopener">Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)</a>’s outstanding shares from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinochem-international-corporation-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13110:1" rel="noopener">Sinochem International Corporation A (600500 CH)</a> at US$0.315 is fulfilled. </li>
<li>This will trigger an MGO at US$0.315 or S$0.413. On the assumption that the offer document is despatched by 17 February, the earliest close of the offer is 17 March.</li>
<li>The MGO has a 50%+ minimum acceptance condition which requires around 40% of minorities' acceptance rate. We think that this is achievable as the offer is attractive. </li>
</ul>


The conditions precedent for China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH) to acquire 36.00% of Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)’s outstanding shares from Sinochem International Corporation A (600500 CH) at US$0.315 is fulfilled. 
This will trigger an MGO at US$0.315 or S$0.413. On the assumption that the offer document is despatched by 17 February, the earliest close of the offer is 17 March.
The MGO has a 50%+ minimum acceptance condition which requires around 40% of minorities' acceptance rate. We think that this is achievable as the offer is attractive. 


Halcyon Agri (HACL SP): Conditions Precedent Fulfilled, MGO at S$0.413

<ul>
<li>The SPA for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hainan-rubber-industry-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10551:1" rel="noopener">China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH)</a> to acquire 36.00% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/halcyon-agri-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18191:1" rel="noopener">Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)</a>’s outstanding shares from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinochem-international-corporation-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13110:1" rel="noopener">Sinochem International Corporation A (600500 CH)</a> at US$0.315 is effective. </li>
<li>Conditions precedent which relate to Chinese regulatory approvals should be satisfied shortly. Completion will trigger an MGO at US$0.315 or S$0.423 (US$/S$ rate fixed on the closing date). </li>
<li>The MGO has a 50%+ minimum acceptance condition which requires around 40% of minorities acceptance rate. We think that this is achievable as the offer is attractive. </li>
</ul>


The SPA for China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH) to acquire 36.00% of Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)’s outstanding shares from Sinochem International Corporation A (600500 CH) at US$0.315 is effective. 
Conditions precedent which relate to Chinese regulatory approvals should be satisfied shortly. Completion will trigger an MGO at US$0.315 or S$0.423 (US$/S$ rate fixed on the closing date). 
The MGO has a 50%+ minimum acceptance condition which requires around 40% of minorities acceptance rate. We think that this is achievable as the offer is attractive. 


Halcyon Agri (HACL SP) MGO: SPA Effective, Next Is Satisfaction of Conditions Precedent

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hainan-rubber-industry-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10551:1" rel="noopener">China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH)</a> has entered a conditional SPA with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinochem-international-corporation-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13110:1" rel="noopener">Sinochem International Corporation A (600500 CH)</a> to acquire a 36.00% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/halcyon-agri-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18191:1" rel="noopener">Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)</a> at US$0.315/share.</li>
<li>The SPA completion will trigger an MGO at US$0.315 (S$0.436) per share. The pre-conditions mainly relate to Chinese regulatory approvals which should be a formality due to SOE links.</li>
<li>The MGO has a 50%+ minimum acceptance condition which requires around a 40% minorities acceptance rate. We think that this is achievable as the offer is attractive.</li>
</ul>



China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH) has entered a conditional SPA with Sinochem International Corporation A (600500 CH) to acquire a 36.00% stake in Halcyon Agri (HACL SP) at US$0.315/share.
The SPA completion will trigger an MGO at US$0.315 (S$0.436) per share. The pre-conditions mainly relate to Chinese regulatory approvals which should be a formality due to SOE links.
The MGO has a 50%+ minimum acceptance condition which requires around a 40% minorities acceptance rate. We think that this is achievable as the offer is attractive.


Thailand

Thai Rubber Latex Group Public Company Limited produces and distributes rubber products. The Company offers latex concentrates and related products used as a raw materials for producing rubber products such as latex gloves, rubber threads, balloons, bands, tubes, and belt conveyor. Thai Rubber Latex Group markets its products in Thailand.

Thai Rubber Latex Group Public Company Limited (TRUBB TB)

Thai Rubber Latex Group Public Company Limited

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52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Thai Rubber Latex Group Public Company Limited (TRUBB TB)

Rubber - Maintain Bullish View on Rubber Prices in 2024E

Given the tighter rubber supply outlook, we remain bullish on the rubber price uptrend in 2024E, which should be an earnings catalyst for rubber...

Krungthai XSpring

Halcyon Agri (HACL SP): Offer Document Out, Offer Closes 24 March

The MGO has a 50%+ minimum acceptance condition which requires around 40% of minorities' acceptance rate. We think that this is achievable as the...

Arun George

Halcyon Agri (HACL SP): Conditions Precedent Fulfilled, MGO at S$0.413

The 50%+ minimum acceptance condition can be hit as the offer is attractive. At the last close and for a mid-March payment, the annualised spread...

Arun George

Halcyon Agri (HACL SP) MGO: SPA Effective, Next Is Satisfaction of Conditions Precedent

Conditions precedent should be satisfied soon due to the SOE heritage of the buyer/seller and SASAC approval of the deal. At last close prices, the...

Arun George

Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)’s Potential MGO

The SPA completion will trigger an MGO at US$0.315 (S$0.436). The MGO has a 50%+ minimum acceptance condition, which is achievable as it is...

Arun George

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52-week Range

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