Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

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Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Energy Sector: Overweight E&amp;P, Neutral on Refinery and Petrochemical</h2>
<h3>Crude: Solid OPEC+ supply curbs to push crude price up</h3>
<div>• Brent crude oil price spiked to US$75.0/bbl in early July, a two-year high. We see the crude price to maintain at high levels supported by OPEC+ controlled production measures and rising demand from strong global economic recovery after vaccine rollout. We maintain our bullish outlook for 3Q21 and expect the Brent crude rise and maintain at US$80/bbl level. PTTEP is our top pick,</div>
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<h3>Refinery: Low pace GRM recovery due to dragged economic growth</h3>
<p>• We expect the gasoline and diesel demand to rise gradually supported by US and EU economic recovery. While jet fuel demand will continue to be under pressure from pandemic-led air travel restrictions. Thus, we expect the GRM to remain flat during 3Q21 and gradually recover by 4Q21. Maintain short-term neutral view on TOP, SPRC, BCP.</p>
<h3>Petrochemicals: Back to pre-Covid oversupply</h3>
<div>• We expect olefin spread to weaken in 2H21 as PE capacity at 7 MTA (6% global capacity) and PP capacity at 6.4 MTA (6% global capacity) will be commercialized in 2H21. we expect polyester and PET demand to fall in 2H21 due to seasonality. Meanwhile, we expect the aromatic spread to remain healthy. PX spread will be supported by new capacity in downstream PTA products from China while BZ demand remains strong from electronics appliance production and downstream (SM) new capacity. Thus, due to the weak 2H21 earnings outlook, we have a neutral view on PTTGC.</div>
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<div class="content-caption">Sources: CGS Research, company data. Notes: Valuation summary of stocks under CGS coverage, as of 9 July 2021 ,</div>
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Energy Sector: Overweight E&amp;P, Neutral on Refinery and Petrochemical
Crude: Solid OPEC+ supply curbs to push crude price up
• Brent crude oil price spiked to US$75.0/bbl in early July, a two-year high. We see the crude price to maintain at high levels supported by OPEC+ controlled production measures and rising demand from strong global economic recovery after vaccine rollout. We maintain our bullish outlook for 3Q21 and expect the Brent crude rise and maintain at US$80/bbl level. PTTEP is our top pick,

Refinery: Low pace GRM recovery due to dragged economic growth
• We expect the gasoline and diesel demand to rise gradually supported by US and EU economic recovery. While jet fuel demand will continue to be under pressure from pandemic-led air travel restrictions. Thus, we expect the GRM to remain flat during 3Q21 and gradually recover by 4Q21. Maintain short-term neutral view on TOP, SPRC, BCP.
Petrochemicals: Back to pre-Covid oversupply
• We expect olefin spread to weaken in 2H21 as PE capacity at 7 MTA (6% global capacity) and PP capacity at 6.4 MTA (6% global capacity) will be commercialized in 2H21. we expect polyester and PET demand to fall in 2H21 due to seasonality. Meanwhile, we expect the aromatic spread to remain healthy. PX spread will be supported by new capacity in downstream PTA products from China while BZ demand remains strong from electronics appliance production and downstream (SM) new capacity. Thus, due to the weak 2H21 earnings outlook, we have a neutral view on PTTGC.










Sources: CGS Research, company data. Notes: Valuation summary of stocks under CGS coverage, as of 9 July 2021 ,




Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong>Last week analyst meeting came out with a positive outlook for refinery business. GRM tends to gradually recover each quarter in 2Q-2H21 on the back of resumption of gasoline, jet oil, and  diesel demand.</strong></p><div>• Expect 2Q21 recurring net profit to remain healthy (flat QoQ, improving YoY). The GIM should remain stable in 2Q21 and improve in 2H21 as product demand improve after lockdown measures eases in EU &amp; Asia..</div><div></div><div>• Stable oil price outlook and healthy contribution from Aromatics, LAB and Lube base oil would support the earnings momentum in 2H21.</div><div></div><div><strong>We maintain the BUY rating based on a target price of Bt65.0, pegged to 1.1xPBV,21E, which is in line with its world peers and a 10% discount to its Thailand peers.</strong></div>

Last week analyst meeting came out with a positive outlook for refinery business. GRM tends to gradually recover each quarter in 2Q-2H21 on the back of resumption of gasoline, jet oil, and  diesel demand.• Expect 2Q21 recurring net profit to remain healthy (flat QoQ, improving YoY). The GIM should remain stable in 2Q21 and improve in 2H21 as product demand improve after lockdown measures eases in EU &amp; Asia..• Stable oil price outlook and healthy contribution from Aromatics, LAB and Lube base oil would support the earnings momentum in 2H21.We maintain the BUY rating based on a target price of Bt65.0, pegged to 1.1xPBV,21E, which is in line with its world peers and a 10% discount to its Thailand peers.

TOP: Refinery Operations to Gain Momentum in 2H21

<p><strong>Yesterday analyst meeting came out with a positive outlook for refinery business. GRM tends to gradually recover each quarter in 2021 on the back of resumption of gasoline and diesel demand. Moreover, huge stock gain in expected in 1Q21 from crude price surge.</strong></p><div>• Expect 1Q21 earnings to improve  both YoY and QoQ on the back of recovering GRM and higher stock gain.</div><div></div><div>• Expect TOP to book huge stock gain of Bt9.0bn (+US$12.0/BBL) in 1Q21, as the reference Dubai crude price inched up to US62.0/BBL, compared to US$50/BBL in beginning of 1Q21.</div><div></div><div>• We expect a significant upswing on TOP’s accounting GIM to reach  US$16.6/BBL in 1Q21 (from US$5.8/BBL in 4Q20, backed by recovering GRM, healthy contribution from Aromatics &amp; LAB, and higher stock gain.</div><p></p><p><strong>We maintain the BUY rating based on a target price of Bt65.0, pegged to 1.1xPBV,21E, which is in line with its world peers and a 10% discount to its Thailand peers.</strong></p>

Yesterday analyst meeting came out with a positive outlook for refinery business. GRM tends to gradually recover each quarter in 2021 on the back of resumption of gasoline and diesel demand. Moreover, huge stock gain in expected in 1Q21 from crude price surge.• Expect 1Q21 earnings to improve  both YoY and QoQ on the back of recovering GRM and higher stock gain.• Expect TOP to book huge stock gain of Bt9.0bn (+US$12.0/BBL) in 1Q21, as the reference Dubai crude price inched up to US62.0/BBL, compared to US$50/BBL in beginning of 1Q21.• We expect a significant upswing on TOP’s accounting GIM to reach  US$16.6/BBL in 1Q21 (from US$5.8/BBL in 4Q20, backed by recovering GRM, healthy contribution from Aromatics &amp; LAB, and higher stock gain.We maintain the BUY rating based on a target price of Bt65.0, pegged to 1.1xPBV,21E, which is in line with its world peers and a 10% discount to its Thailand peers.

TOP: Recovering GRM and Stock Gain to Drive 1Q21 Earnings

<p><strong>Crude: Bright E&amp;P business performance from recovering crude price</strong></p><ul><li>We expect the widespread deployment of COVID-19 vaccines, continued support from OPEC+ on regulating the crude supply, and post COVID-19 demand spike in crude products (Jet fuel, gasoline, diesel etc.) will support the Brent crude to continue the upward rally in 2021. <strong> PTTEP is our top pick</strong>, the E&amp;P business will most benefit from recovering crude price.</li></ul><p><strong>Refinery: Improving product demand to drive GRM</strong></p><ul><li>Thai refiners’ share prices are trading at 10-to-20% discount to their historical PBV multiples mainly due to the COVID-19 impact, which dragged the GRM to negative territory along with huge inventory loss. We have a positive view on 2021 refinery performance and expect the GRM to gradually pick up each quarter on the back of recovering products spreads (especially Jet fuel). <strong>TOP is our top pick </strong>among refineries considering the cheap valuation (0.9x PBV’21, 20% below its 5 year trading average), and upside from current share price (+18%).</li></ul><p><strong>Petrochemicals: Benefit from global recovery</strong></p><ul><li>We foresee a strong recovery in petrochemicals to continue in 1H21. Olefins (HDPE, PP) has already recovered back to its 5-year average ahead of Chinese New Year. Meanwhile, aromatics (PX, BZ) to be supported by growth in textile and automotive industry and new capacity in downstream products (PTA). <strong>PTTGC is our top pick</strong> as overall businesses benefit from petrochemical upswing. The company will also realize 10% more capacity in PO/Polyols unit by 1Q21.</li></ul><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/184/642/original/SMK1.png?1611645077" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="184642"></figure><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Valuation Summary*</strong></p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/184/643/original/Picture1.jpg?1611645252" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="184643"></figure></section><p style="text-align: center;"><em>Source: CGS Research, Company data, SET</em></p></section>

Crude: Bright E&amp;P business performance from recovering crude priceWe expect the widespread deployment of COVID-19 vaccines, continued support from OPEC+ on regulating the crude supply, and post COVID-19 demand spike in crude products (Jet fuel, gasoline, diesel etc.) will support the Brent crude to continue the upward rally in 2021.  PTTEP is our top pick, the E&amp;P business will most benefit from recovering crude price.Refinery: Improving product demand to drive GRMThai refiners’ share prices are trading at 10-to-20% discount to their historical PBV multiples mainly due to the COVID-19 impact, which dragged the GRM to negative territory along with huge inventory loss. We have a positive view on 2021 refinery performance and expect the GRM to gradually pick up each quarter on the back of recovering products spreads (especially Jet fuel). TOP is our top pick among refineries considering the cheap valuation (0.9x PBV’21, 20% below its 5 year trading average), and upside from current share price (+18%).Petrochemicals: Benefit from global recoveryWe foresee a strong recovery in petrochemicals to continue in 1H21. Olefins (HDPE, PP) has already recovered back to its 5-year average ahead of Chinese New Year. Meanwhile, aromatics (PX, BZ) to be supported by growth in textile and automotive industry and new capacity in downstream products (PTA). PTTGC is our top pick as overall businesses benefit from petrochemical upswing. The company will also realize 10% more capacity in PO/Polyols unit by 1Q21.Valuation Summary*
Source: CGS Research, Company data, SET

Energy Sector : Overweight- Oil Demand Recovery to Drive 2021 Earnings

<p>We initiate coverage of TOP with a BUY rating, based on a 2021E target price of Bt65.0, pegged to 1.1xPBV,21E, which is in line with its world peers and a 10% discount to its Thailand peers.</p><p>The story:</p><div>• Earnings upcycle in 2021E after turnaround from COVID-19 impact</div><div>• Refinery segment recovery on track</div><div>• Operational excellence from CFP upgradation</div><div>• Slightly positive view on petrochemicals, neutral on power business</div><p></p><p>Risks:</p><div>• Raw material price fluctuation</div><div>• Foreign currency exchange rate fluctuation</div>

We initiate coverage of TOP with a BUY rating, based on a 2021E target price of Bt65.0, pegged to 1.1xPBV,21E, which is in line with its world peers and a 10% discount to its Thailand peers.The story:• Earnings upcycle in 2021E after turnaround from COVID-19 impact• Refinery segment recovery on track• Operational excellence from CFP upgradation• Slightly positive view on petrochemicals, neutral on power businessRisks:• Raw material price fluctuation• Foreign currency exchange rate fluctuation

TOP: Premier Thai Refinery to Post Huge Earnings Turnaround in 2021E

Thailand

Banpu Public Company Limited mines for coal and other minerals. The Company produces thermal coal and coking coal, and have expertise in open-pit and underground coal mining operations, as well as coal-fired power generation.  Banpu PCL has business bases in Thailand, Laos, Indonesia, China, Australia and Mongolia.

Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited operates as an energy company. The Company offers petroleum exploration and production, biomass, crude oil, and solar energy. Bangchak markets its products in Thailand.

Esso Thailand PCL is a fully integrated oil business, including oil refinery and production. The Company provides liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), gasoline, aviation fuel, diesel, marine fuel, lubricants, aromatic products and other related products such as purified terephthalic acid (PTA), solvents, plasticizers, and benzene concentrate stream.

IRPC PCL produces a variety of petrochemical products including polypropylene, high density polyethylene and expandable polystyrene primarily used in packaging materials. Through its subsidiaries, the Company produces and distributes gasoline, liquefied petroleumgas (LPG), asphalt, as well as electricity and construction materials.

Energy Absolute Public Company Limited engages in the research, development, and production of biodiesel products in Thailand.

Prima Marine Public Company Limited operates as a marine vessel management firm. The Company offers oil-tanker, crude oil, liquefied petrochemicals, and petroleum products transportation services. Prima Marine also provides shipbuilding, shipping, and storage services. Prima Marine serves customers in the Asia Pacific region.

Siamgas & Petrochemicals PCL distributes liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). The Company provides LPG, ammonia and other related petrochemical products such as propane, butane and propellant. Siamgas is also involved in the logistics services for LPG and petrochemical products.

The Lanna Resources Public Company Limited mines and distributes lignite and granite products in Thailand.  The Company produces two types of granite products, polished granite slab and granite block.  Its lignite is supplied to power generation, cement, paper, and food industries.  Additionally, Lanna imports coal for domestic distribution.

SUSCO Pcl distributes petroleum products including unleaded and regular gasoline and diesel oil through its gasoline filling stations and directly to large end-users.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company acts as an oil agent and offers marine freight transportation services.

Asian Insulators Public Company Limited manufactures electrical porcelain insulators for use in low, medium and high voltage applications such as underground power lines, overhead power lines, and power distribution systems and sub-stations.

Shanxi Meijin Energy Co., Ltd. produces coal and related products.

Shanxi Meijin Energy Co, Ltd. (000723 CH)

New Hope Corporation Limited is a thermal coal production company based in Australia. The Company also has interests in logistics and infrastructure operations in Australia as well.

Kosmos Energy Ltd. provides oil and gas exploration and production services. The Company focuses on discovering new petroleum systems and to grow and mature discovered hydrocarbon basins, as well as development and production projects. Kosmos Energy serves customers worldwide.

Peabody Energy Corporation mines and markets low sulfur coal, primarily for use by electric utilities. The Company also trades coal and emission allowances. Peabody owns and operates mines in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming, Illinois, Indiana, and Australia.

Paladin Energy Ltd operates as a mining company. The Company explores and mines uranium. Paladin Energy serves customers worldwide.

Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co., Ltd. operates underground coal mining, coal washing and processing. The company also provides ground transportation services.

Jizhong Energy Resources Co., Ltd. produces and markets coal products, generates electric power, and manufactures cement.

CVR Energy, Inc. is an independent refiner and marketer of transportation fuels. The Company, also through a limited partnership produces ammonia and urea ammonia nitrate, or UAN, fertilizers.

Gulfport Energy Corporation operates as an energy exploration and production company. The Company focuses on oil and natural gas exploration and production services. Gulfport Energy serves clients in the United States.

PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk, (GEMS) operates as a holding company. Through its  s ubsidiaries, the Company mines for coal. GEMS' supplies paper mills and export energy markets including China, India, Thailand, Vietnam, and Bangladesh.

Thai Oil Public Company Limited is an oil refinery company. The Company imports crude oil and refines it into gasoline.  It also produces oil related products including liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), kerosene, fuel oil and chemicals. Thai oil supplies its products to domestic market where its major customers include Shell, Caltex Oil and the Petroleum Authority of Thailand.

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Thai Oil Pcl (TOP TB)

Energy Sector Outlook 3Q21

We maintain the BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt146, derived using DCF methodology (WACC 9.4%, TG 2%). Our valuation implies 11x...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

TOP: Refinery Operations to Gain Momentum in 2H21

Last week analyst meeting came out with a positive outlook for refinery business. GRM tends to gradually recover each quarter in 2Q-2H21 on the...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

TOP: Recovering GRM and Stock Gain to Drive 1Q21 Earnings

Yesterday analyst meeting came out with a positive outlook for refinery business. GRM tends to gradually recover each quarter in 2021 on the back...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Energy Sector : Overweight- Oil Demand Recovery to Drive 2021 Earnings

Energy Sector : Overweight- Oil demand recovery to drive 2021 earnings. We expect bright E&P business performance from recovering crude price, and...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

TOP: Premier Thai Refinery to Post Huge Earnings Turnaround in 2021E

We initiate coverage of TOP with a BUY rating, based on a 2021E target price of Bt65.0, pegged to 1.1xPBV,21E, which is in line with its world...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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