Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Japan's semiconductor technology export restrictions took effect on Sunday and are unlikely to ease for China any time soon.</li>
<li>Apple is reportedly telling suppliers that its flagship iPhone volumes will be similar to last year.</li>
<li>Hon Hai acquires 50% stake in German auto chassis maker, marking a significant expansion in its EV manufacturing efforts.</li>
</ul>


Japan's semiconductor technology export restrictions took effect on Sunday and are unlikely to ease for China any time soon.
Apple is reportedly telling suppliers that its flagship iPhone volumes will be similar to last year.
Hon Hai acquires 50% stake in German auto chassis maker, marking a significant expansion in its EV manufacturing efforts.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Japan Semi Restrictions Take Effect; Apple IPhone Volumes; Hon Hai Acquisition

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China is considering banning gallium and germanium shipments to the US</li>
<li>Semiconductors consume well under 20% of world gallium production, and an almost immeasurably small amount of germanium</li>
<li>Very little of the consumption is in the US, indicating that the impact of a boycott should be very small</li>
</ul>


China is considering banning gallium and germanium shipments to the US
Semiconductors consume well under 20% of world gallium production, and an almost immeasurably small amount of germanium
Very little of the consumption is in the US, indicating that the impact of a boycott should be very small


Is China's Boycott of Germanium Gallium to the US Meaningful?

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

Robosense Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>RoboSense Technology, one of the leading providers of LiDAR sensor systems and AI perception software, filed for a Hong Kong IPO with J.P. Morgan and China Renaissance leading the offering.</li>
<li>RoboSense Technology is a high-growth mass producer of LiDAR products with mounting operating losses. The company is growing revenue in double digits and still has heavy losses.  </li>
<li>I believe RoboSense Technology IPO is risky due to the company’s high cash burn rate, fierce competition, pricing pressure and unhealthy fundamentals. Moreover, LiDAR stocks continue to underperform.</li>
</ul>


RoboSense Technology, one of the leading providers of LiDAR sensor systems and AI perception software, filed for a Hong Kong IPO with J.P. Morgan and China Renaissance leading the offering.
RoboSense Technology is a high-growth mass producer of LiDAR products with mounting operating losses. The company is growing revenue in double digits and still has heavy losses.  
I believe RoboSense Technology IPO is risky due to the company’s high cash burn rate, fierce competition, pricing pressure and unhealthy fundamentals. Moreover, LiDAR stocks continue to underperform.


RoboSense Technology: A Risky IPO As LiDAR Stocks Underperformed

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 16 June. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.</li>
<li>The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$9.26bn.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$358m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stock in terms of ADV to trade is small.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 16 June. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.
The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$9.26bn.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$358m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stock in terms of ADV to trade is small.


MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Chipping Away

<ul>
<li>The steep part of the chip collapse has run its course, and prices are now following cost</li>
<li>Revenues will rise once demand growth fully offsets price decreases, probably in the fourth quarter</li>
<li>The market will regain profitability only after a new shortage develops, which may be the middle of 2024</li>
</ul>


The steep part of the chip collapse has run its course, and prices are now following cost
Revenues will rise once demand growth fully offsets price decreases, probably in the fourth quarter
The market will regain profitability only after a new shortage develops, which may be the middle of 2024


United States

Texas Instruments Incorporated operates as a semiconductor design and manufacturing company. The Company develops analog ICs and embedded processors. Texas Instruments has manufacturing or sales operations worldwide.

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Texas Instruments (TXN US)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Japan Semi Restrictions Take Effect; Apple IPhone Volumes; Hon Hai Acquisition

Japan's semiconductor technology export restrictions took effect on Sunday and are unlikely to ease for China any time soon.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Is China's Boycott of Germanium Gallium to the US Meaningful?

Although China has threatened to boycott shipments of germanium and gallium to the US, the impact of such a move is likely to be very small. This...

Jim Handy

RoboSense Technology: A Risky IPO As LiDAR Stocks Underperformed

RoboSense Technology IPO looks risky due to the company’s high cash burn rate, fierce competition, pricing pressure and unhealthy fundamentals, in...

Andrei Zakharov

MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Chipping Away

No constituent changes, but there are float/capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$358m. Stocks are...

Brian Freitas

Where Are We in the Semiconductor Cycle?

Will the semiconductor market turn around? Revenues are likely to regain modest growth in the fourth quarter, but profits shouldn't return until...

Jim Handy

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