Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global MSCI indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) are pulling back following recent breakouts to multi-year highs. Europe, Japan also pulling back to uptrend supports.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch-discussed in our May 23, 2024 Int'l Compass-include $110.50 on ACWI-US, $53.50 on ACWX-US, $80 on EFA-US, and $41-42 on EEM-US; buy this pullback. </li>
<li>As long as these supports hold, we anticipate significantly higher prices ahead. Combination of supports holding and healthy market dynamics continues to validate our bullish outlook on global equities.</li>
</ul>


Global MSCI indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) are pulling back following recent breakouts to multi-year highs. Europe, Japan also pulling back to uptrend supports.
Short-Term supports to watch-discussed in our May 23, 2024 Int'l Compass-include $110.50 on ACWI-US, $53.50 on ACWX-US, $80 on EFA-US, and $41-42 on EEM-US; buy this pullback. 
As long as these supports hold, we anticipate significantly higher prices ahead. Combination of supports holding and healthy market dynamics continues to validate our bullish outlook on global equities.


Buy the Pullback; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy; Buys in Tech, Discretionary, Healthcare, Utilities

Health Care Select Sector SPDR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As the saying goes, "sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market." That appears to be exactly what is going on as we kick off 2024.</li>
<li>Leadership areas that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back rather hard -- and on above average volume (XLK, SMH, IGV, ARKK, IPO, BITQ)</li>
<li>Other Sectors are picking up the slack, namely Health Care (XLV), Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), and Real Estate (XLRE). Shift exposure toward value and defensives</li>
</ul>


As the saying goes, "sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market." That appears to be exactly what is going on as we kick off 2024.
Leadership areas that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back rather hard -- and on above average volume (XLK, SMH, IGV, ARKK, IPO, BITQ)
Other Sectors are picking up the slack, namely Health Care (XLV), Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), and Real Estate (XLRE). Shift exposure toward value and defensives


Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK, IPO

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Celltrion Healthcare   / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-healthcare" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23641:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS)</a> is expected to launch Humira biosimilar, Yuflyma, in the U.S. market in July 2023. Despite heavy competition, as high-concentration citrate-free formulation, Yuflyma has competitive edge.</li>
<li>In April 2023, Celltrion has launched bevacizumab biosimilar, Vegzelma in the U.S. Vegzelma will be the first product that the company will be directly selling in the U.S.</li>
<li>Through portfolio expansion, Celltrion increased target market size to $53.7B in 2023 from $20.6B in 2020, representing 161% growth. For 2024, the target market is expected to increase to $91.3B.</li>
</ul>



Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS) is expected to launch Humira biosimilar, Yuflyma, in the U.S. market in July 2023. Despite heavy competition, as high-concentration citrate-free formulation, Yuflyma has competitive edge.
In April 2023, Celltrion has launched bevacizumab biosimilar, Vegzelma in the U.S. Vegzelma will be the first product that the company will be directly selling in the U.S.
Through portfolio expansion, Celltrion increased target market size to $53.7B in 2023 from $20.6B in 2020, representing 161% growth. For 2024, the target market is expected to increase to $91.3B.


Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS): Portfolio Enhancement to Drive Business Growth

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-biologics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22932:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Biologics (207940 KS)</a> is expected to report strong Q4 results, with double-digit revenue growth. Partial operation of Plant 4 will impact profitability, which will be continued through H12023.</li>
<li>The Chairman of the company has been selling shares, causing recent pullback in the stock, which should be considered as an attractive entry point.</li>
<li>The long-term growth story remains intact, with all eyes being on upcoming conference where the company may unfold its capex plan amid stellar order book and industry demand.</li>
</ul>



Samsung Biologics (207940 KS) is expected to report strong Q4 results, with double-digit revenue growth. Partial operation of Plant 4 will impact profitability, which will be continued through H12023.
The Chairman of the company has been selling shares, causing recent pullback in the stock, which should be considered as an attractive entry point.
The long-term growth story remains intact, with all eyes being on upcoming conference where the company may unfold its capex plan amid stellar order book and industry demand.


Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Near-Term Key Positive Catalysts

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cipla-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3918:1" rel="noopener">Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN)</a> is a strong play in Indian generic pharmaceutical industry, due to its niche and differentiated respiratory and peptide injectable portfolio, which has less competition.</li>
<li>The company has launched couple of complex respiratory products in the US market, which has accelerated its revenue growth. Multiple high-value launches are also lined up for this year.</li>
<li>Cipla’s India business is on a strong footing, led by core portfolio tailwind in prescription and trade generics businesses. Q2FY23 marked the sixth consecutive quarter of market beating growth.</li>
</ul>



Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN) is a strong play in Indian generic pharmaceutical industry, due to its niche and differentiated respiratory and peptide injectable portfolio, which has less competition.
The company has launched couple of complex respiratory products in the US market, which has accelerated its revenue growth. Multiple high-value launches are also lined up for this year.
Cipla’s India business is on a strong footing, led by core portfolio tailwind in prescription and trade generics businesses. Q2FY23 marked the sixth consecutive quarter of market beating growth.


2023 High Conviction Idea: Cipla (CIPLA IN)- Complex Generics and India Business to Drive Growth

Israel

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., is a global pharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and markets generic and branded human pharmaceuticals as well as active pharmaceutical ingredients.

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Teva Pharmaceutical Sp Adr (TEVA US)

Buy the Pullback; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy; Buys in Tech, Discretionary, Healthcare, Utilities

Buy the Pullbacks in $EFA $ACWX as they hold above $80 and $53.50 supports; Europe and Japan also buyable pullbacks to uptrend supports; Market...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK, IPO

Shifting exposure toward value and defensives. Upgrading Consumer Staples $XLP and Health Care $XLV to market weight. $ARKK and $IPO with bearish...

Vermilion Research

Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS): Portfolio Enhancement to Drive Business Growth

Celltrion Healthcare is expected to launch Humira biosimilar in US in July 2023. Through portfolio expansion, Celltrion aims to increase target...

Tina Banerjee

Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Near-Term Key Positive Catalysts

Upcoming participation in healthcare conference, Q4 result, and biosimilar launch in US are key catalysts to watch. Ongoing capex amid strong order...

Tina Banerjee

2023 High Conviction Idea: Cipla (CIPLA IN)- Complex Generics and India Business to Drive Growth

Cipla is a strong play on Indian pharma. Riding on a differentiated product portfolio and new launches gaining market share, Cipla is well...

Tina Banerjee

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