High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Elon has given up on his ambitious targets. Or he has never seriously pursued them.</li><li>Tesla’s investor event “We, Robot” was nothing more than a theme park for adults who were there to indulge into an illusion for a night.</li><li>Why would they conduct such a ridiculous event that suggests that they have nothing up their sleeves that can create tens of billions of dollars of AI revenue soon? </li></ul>

Elon has given up on his ambitious targets. Or he has never seriously pursued them.Tesla’s investor event “We, Robot” was nothing more than a theme park for adults who were there to indulge into an illusion for a night.Why would they conduct such a ridiculous event that suggests that they have nothing up their sleeves that can create tens of billions of dollars of AI revenue soon? 

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Tesla's third-quarter 2024 report has left investors with more questions than answers.</li><li>The company delivered 462,890 vehicles, narrowly missing analysts' estimates and triggering a 2% decline in premarket trading.</li><li>While Tesla remains a dominant force in the electric vehicle (EV) industry, it faces mounting challenges, including increased competition, leadership shakeups, and frequent product recalls.</li></ul>

Tesla's third-quarter 2024 report has left investors with more questions than answers.The company delivered 462,890 vehicles, narrowly missing analysts' estimates and triggering a 2% decline in premarket trading.While Tesla remains a dominant force in the electric vehicle (EV) industry, it faces mounting challenges, including increased competition, leadership shakeups, and frequent product recalls.

Tesla's Q3 Delivery Report, Leadership Shakeup & Cybertruck Recalls: Should Investors Be Worried?

AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Tesla aims for 462,000 deliveries in Q3 2024, with analysts predicting actual numbers could reach 470,000 units. This increase highlights strong demand, particularly in China.</li>
<li>Vehicle registrations in China rose nearly 20% QoQ, driven by the Model Y's popularity. Despite expiring subsidies, Tesla expects Q3 deliveries to exceed its previous best quarter by 5%.</li>
<li>Tesla's stock is up only 4.85% year-to-date, significantly lagging the S&amp;P 500’s 21% rise. Factors include declining EV demand, price cuts affecting margins, and increased competition.</li>
</ul>


Tesla aims for 462,000 deliveries in Q3 2024, with analysts predicting actual numbers could reach 470,000 units. This increase highlights strong demand, particularly in China.
Vehicle registrations in China rose nearly 20% QoQ, driven by the Model Y's popularity. Despite expiring subsidies, Tesla expects Q3 deliveries to exceed its previous best quarter by 5%.
Tesla's stock is up only 4.85% year-to-date, significantly lagging the S&amp;P 500’s 21% rise. Factors include declining EV demand, price cuts affecting margins, and increased competition.


Tesla's Q3 2024 Earnings: Production Surge, China Growth, and FSD Innovations Await

<ul>
<li>Tesla projects Q3 2024 EV sales of 460,000–470,000, reflecting 8% YoY growth, driven by high demand in China and robust Gigafactory operations. </li>
<li>The October 10 Robotaxi event will spotlight Tesla’s Full Self Driving tech, attracting intense investor interest in autonomous transportation’s future prospects. Investors eye a new cheaper Tesla model release.</li>
<li>Waymo leads the U.S. market, with 100,000+ weekly paid robotaxi trips, intensifying pressure on Tesla to match or surpass this scale in its robotaxi rollout. </li>
</ul>


Tesla projects Q3 2024 EV sales of 460,000–470,000, reflecting 8% YoY growth, driven by high demand in China and robust Gigafactory operations. 
The October 10 Robotaxi event will spotlight Tesla’s Full Self Driving tech, attracting intense investor interest in autonomous transportation’s future prospects. Investors eye a new cheaper Tesla model release.
Waymo leads the U.S. market, with 100,000+ weekly paid robotaxi trips, intensifying pressure on Tesla to match or surpass this scale in its robotaxi rollout. 


Tesla Gears Up for Game-Changing Robotaxi Event Amid EV Sales Surge

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Blended ASP of decline of 1% q/q in the past two quarters in 2H23, better than 3-10% q/q decline during 3Q22-2Q23, resulting in Tesla's blended ASP decline to decelerate. </li>
<li>Due to Tesla's cost cutting efforts with nice inventory control, we calculates profits/EV rebounded nicely by 21% q/q to US$3,490 per EV in 4Q23, much nicer than no profits.</li>
<li>Good improvement on its FSD Beta version 12.1.2 lately might become a pure profits/EV boost by incremental subscription of US$10,000-15,000 per EV or monthly fee by existing Tesla owners.</li>
</ul>


Blended ASP of decline of 1% q/q in the past two quarters in 2H23, better than 3-10% q/q decline during 3Q22-2Q23, resulting in Tesla's blended ASP decline to decelerate. 
Due to Tesla's cost cutting efforts with nice inventory control, we calculates profits/EV rebounded nicely by 21% q/q to US$3,490 per EV in 4Q23, much nicer than no profits.
Good improvement on its FSD Beta version 12.1.2 lately might become a pure profits/EV boost by incremental subscription of US$10,000-15,000 per EV or monthly fee by existing Tesla owners.


Good Entry Point as Tesla Stabilizes Its 4Q23 Asp and Profits Per EV

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

Tesla: The Disney World for grown-ups

Tesla’s investor event “We, Robot” was nothing more than a theme park for adults who were there to indulge into an illusion for a night.

Fallacy Alarm

Tesla's Q3 Delivery Report, Leadership Shakeup & Cybertruck Recalls: Should Investors Be Worried?

Tesla's third-quarter 2024 report has left investors with more questions than answers. The company delivered 462,890 vehicles, narrowly missing...

Baptista Research

Tesla's Q3 2024 Earnings: Production Surge, China Growth, and FSD Innovations Await

As Tesla prepares for its Q3 2024 earnings report, investors focus on production forecasts, expansion in China, advances in FSD technology, and the...

Mint Finance

Tesla Gears Up for Game-Changing Robotaxi Event Amid EV Sales Surge

Tesla hopes to reshape the autonomous vehicle landscape in the 10/10 Robotaxi event, building on its EV success. Strong Q3 24 sales projections...

Mint Finance

Good Entry Point as Tesla Stabilizes Its 4Q23 Asp and Profits Per EV

Good Entry Point as Tesla Stabilizes Its 4Q23 Asp and Profits Per EV. Due to pricing stability and Tesla's cost cutting efforts, profits/EV...

Andrew Lu

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