Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Geely’s revenue grew by 20% YoY and deliveries increased by 19% YoY in 3Q24.</li>
<li>The operating margin improved to 5.3% in 3Q24 versus 2.9% in 3Q23.</li>
<li>We conclude an upside of 58% and a price target of HK$22 for the end of 2025.</li>
</ul>


Geely’s revenue grew by 20% YoY and deliveries increased by 19% YoY in 3Q24.
The operating margin improved to 5.3% in 3Q24 versus 2.9% in 3Q23.
We conclude an upside of 58% and a price target of HK$22 for the end of 2025.


Geely (175 HK): 3Q24, Revenue up by 20% and Operating Profit up by 129% (2nd Largest in China)

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BEKE US: Government cut property transaction related taxes, saving 2.5%-4.5% of transaction costs per unit(+)</li>
<li>1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US: EV deliveries in the 45th week of 2024, Xiaomi rebounds, Tesla is strong, NIO and Xpeng are weak （///////////）</li>
<li>ATAT US: Atour Pillow's Double 11 Sales Exceed Expectations, Reaching RMB520mn（+）</li>
</ul>


BEKE US: Government cut property transaction related taxes, saving 2.5%-4.5% of transaction costs per unit(+)
1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US: EV deliveries in the 45th week of 2024, Xiaomi rebounds, Tesla is strong, NIO and Xpeng are weak （///////////）
ATAT US: Atour Pillow's Double 11 Sales Exceed Expectations, Reaching RMB520mn（+）


[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/ATAT US/BIDU US

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have significantly improved over the past week.</li>
<li>Last week's 11/5/24 report titled "Buy the Pullback" discussed how we were buyers, expecting a strong end-of-year rally to start that day or the following day (day after the election)</li>
<li>The strong rally officially started on election day, and all that is left to do is ride the trend higher into year-end and the early part of 2025</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have significantly improved over the past week.
Last week's 11/5/24 report titled "Buy the Pullback" discussed how we were buyers, expecting a strong end-of-year rally to start that day or the following day (day after the election)
The strong rally officially started on election day, and all that is left to do is ride the trend higher into year-end and the early part of 2025


Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-Of-Year Rally Underway; Four Sector Upgrades, One Downgrade

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Stan Zhao

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector

<ul>
<li>Tesla's Cybercab is expected to be under $30,000 in price, with production costs of  ~$25,000 and operating costs of 30-40 cents per mile.</li>
<li>We found Baidu's robotaxi to be faces 50% higher daily total costs and runs a fleet of 600 autonomous vehicles.</li>
<li>To compete with Tesla’s Cybercab by 2026, Baidu must significantly reduce its operating costs. Tesla's lower price and efficiency could capture a larger market share.</li>
</ul>


Tesla's Cybercab is expected to be under $30,000 in price, with production costs of  ~$25,000 and operating costs of 30-40 cents per mile.
We found Baidu's robotaxi to be faces 50% higher daily total costs and runs a fleet of 600 autonomous vehicles.
To compete with Tesla’s Cybercab by 2026, Baidu must significantly reduce its operating costs. Tesla's lower price and efficiency could capture a larger market share.


A Comparison of Tesla’s Cybercab and Baidu’s Apollo Shows the Latter Must Improve

<ul>
<li>We believe key to Trump's MAGA agenda is to revamp the US growth model of using trade deficit to fund the economy. Trump needs to cut imports without elicit inflation;</li>
<li>A way to cut inflation is to structurally lower the US cost of living. To do so will affect the lives of millions which means income tax cut is necessary;</li>
<li>To lower income tax without adding trade deficit, Trump needs to scale back government spending. Elon Musk, if making good of its US$2tn cuts plan, will help.</li>
</ul>


We believe key to Trump's MAGA agenda is to revamp the US growth model of using trade deficit to fund the economy. Trump needs to cut imports without elicit inflation;
A way to cut inflation is to structurally lower the US cost of living. To do so will affect the lives of millions which means income tax cut is necessary;
To lower income tax without adding trade deficit, Trump needs to scale back government spending. Elon Musk, if making good of its US$2tn cuts plan, will help.


If Trump Doesn't Launch Trade War in His First Year, Is There Still a Need to Stimulate?

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

Price Gauge
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Tesla (TSLA US)

Geely (175 HK): 3Q24, Revenue up by 20% and Operating Profit up by 129% (2nd Largest in China)

Revenue grew by 20% YoY and deliveries increased by 19% YoY in 3Q24. The operating margin improved to 5.3% in 3Q24 versus 2.9% in 3Q23. We conclude...

Ming Lu

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/ATAT US/BIDU US

Government in BEKE US cuts property transaction taxes, saving 2.5%-4.5% per unit; EV deliveries mixed in 45th week, Atour Pillow's Double 11 sales...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-Of-Year Rally Underway; Four Sector Upgrades, One Downgrade

Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-of-Year Rally Underway $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Four Sector Upgrades ($XLF to overweight, $XLY $XLI and $IYT to...

Vermilion Research

A Comparison of Tesla’s Cybercab and Baidu’s Apollo Shows the Latter Must Improve

Baidu's robotaxi Apollo faces higher costs to build and operate than Tesla's Cybercab and Baidu must reduce operating costs to compete effectively...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

If Trump Doesn't Launch Trade War in His First Year, Is There Still a Need to Stimulate?

Trump's MAGA agenda hinges on cutting imports and lowering cost of living, which can then fund his campaign on immigration and foreign trade....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Geely (175 HK): 3Q24, Revenue up by 20% and Operating Profit up by 129% (2nd Largest in China)

Revenue grew by 20% YoY and deliveries increased by 19% YoY in 3Q24. The operating margin improved to 5.3% in 3Q24 versus 2.9% in 3Q23. We conclude...

Ming Lu

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/ATAT US/BIDU US

​Government in BEKE US cuts property transaction taxes, saving 2.5%-4.5% per unit; EV deliveries mixed in 45th week, Atour Pillow's Double 11 sales...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-Of-Year Rally Underway; Four Sector Upgrades, One Downgrade

Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-of-Year Rally Underway $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Four Sector Upgrades ($XLF to overweight, $XLY $XLI and $IYT to...

Vermilion Research

A Comparison of Tesla’s Cybercab and Baidu’s Apollo Shows the Latter Must Improve

​Baidu's robotaxi Apollo faces higher costs to build and operate than Tesla's Cybercab and Baidu must reduce operating costs to compete effectively...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

If Trump Doesn't Launch Trade War in His First Year, Is There Still a Need to Stimulate?

​Trump's MAGA agenda hinges on cutting imports and lowering cost of living, which can then fund his campaign on immigration and foreign trade....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Government in BEKE US cuts property transaction taxes, saving 2.5%-4.5% per unit; EV deliveries mixed in 45th week, Atour Pillow's Double 11 sales...

Baidu's robotaxi Apollo faces higher costs to build and operate than Tesla's Cybercab and Baidu must reduce operating costs to compete effectively...

Trump's MAGA agenda hinges on cutting imports and lowering cost of living, which can then fund his campaign on immigration and foreign trade....