Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Like other automotive/industrial semi vendors, Diodes guides 4Q23 sales of 20% q/q and 35% y/y decline (miss by 21%) and weaker gross margin/operating margin of 35%/7% (miss by 5ppts).</li>
<li>The company sees 4Q23 sales decline of 20% mainly from 19% of automotive and 26% of industrial customers due to customer inventory cut coupled with year-end distributor inventory management. </li>
<li>We expect this adjustment for automotive/industrial IDMs to last for at least 6 months and suggest our clients to avoid these names unless valuation becoming attractive.  </li>
</ul>


Like other automotive/industrial semi vendors, Diodes guides 4Q23 sales of 20% q/q and 35% y/y decline (miss by 21%) and weaker gross margin/operating margin of 35%/7% (miss by 5ppts).
The company sees 4Q23 sales decline of 20% mainly from 19% of automotive and 26% of industrial customers due to customer inventory cut coupled with year-end distributor inventory management. 
We expect this adjustment for automotive/industrial IDMs to last for at least 6 months and suggest our clients to avoid these names unless valuation becoming attractive.  


With No Surprise, Diodes Guides Automotive/Industrial Semi Demand to Fall over 20% Q/Q

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The fact that Tesla Korea is losing its market share significantly in Korea portends increased challenges for Tesla Motors on a global basis. </li>
<li>The number of new Tesla vehicles registered in Korea was 1,303 units in 1Q 2023, down 52% YoY. </li>
<li>In this insight, we provide three major reasons for Tesla's market share losses in Korea. We also provide Tesla Korea's 2022 results analysis.</li>
</ul>


The fact that Tesla Korea is losing its market share significantly in Korea portends increased challenges for Tesla Motors on a global basis. 
The number of new Tesla vehicles registered in Korea was 1,303 units in 1Q 2023, down 52% YoY. 
In this insight, we provide three major reasons for Tesla's market share losses in Korea. We also provide Tesla Korea's 2022 results analysis.


Market Share Loss for Tesla Korea Accelerating in 1Q 2023

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven, SC Capital

SC Capital

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven

Over 22 years covering Japanese equities on both the sell side and the buy side. 

Bottom-up Japan Equities Research

<ul>
<li>Tesla reported a 6% Q4 EPS beat, but stripping out a one-off deferred revenue booking &amp; higher than expected regulatory credits, Q4 results missed by 9%.  </li>
<li>Tesla rose +5.5% post market close after Musk said YTD orders are "2x" output. None of the data we have seen implies such demand, especially weekly China sales. </li>
<li>What went unnoticed on the earnings call is that Tesla created a $7bn credit facility this month, which should dash all hopes of them doing a share buyback in 2023. </li>
</ul>


Tesla reported a 6% Q4 EPS beat, but stripping out a one-off deferred revenue booking &amp; higher than expected regulatory credits, Q4 results missed by 9%.  
Tesla rose +5.5% post market close after Musk said YTD orders are "2x" output. None of the data we have seen implies such demand, especially weekly China sales. 
What went unnoticed on the earnings call is that Tesla created a $7bn credit facility this month, which should dash all hopes of them doing a share buyback in 2023. 


Tesla Q4 Miss Is Big & Sets the Stage for a Drop in 2023 Profits

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<ul>
<li>Elon Musk closed his Twitter deal Thursday as confirmed today via a filing with the SEC to delist its stock. </li>
<li>We don't know if Elon sold more Tesla to cover his cash shortfall. If not, where did he get it? </li>
<li>He also sent Tesla's engineers to assess how to fix Twitter. Like, sharing resources. Establishing synergies. Maybe creating an excuse to direct Tesla to "invest" into Twitter, as I suspected.</li>
</ul>


Elon Musk closed his Twitter deal Thursday as confirmed today via a filing with the SEC to delist its stock. 
We don't know if Elon sold more Tesla to cover his cash shortfall. If not, where did he get it? 
He also sent Tesla's engineers to assess how to fix Twitter. Like, sharing resources. Establishing synergies. Maybe creating an excuse to direct Tesla to "invest" into Twitter, as I suspected.


Elon Has "Freed" Twitter: Send The Ravens

<ul>
<li>Tesla's Q3 revenues missed by 2%, while GAAP EPS was in-line with consensus and adjusted EPS only beat by 5.4%. Tesla hasn't seen numbers this weak since Q4 2020.</li>
<li>The closely watched Autmotive gross margin (ex-ZEV credits) were much worse than expected at 26.8% versus consensus estimates of 27.5%. </li>
<li>On the earnings call, Musk said he would be buying Twitter. This will only add to the selling pressure from Tesla's weak Q3 results throughout next week. </li>
</ul>


Tesla's Q3 revenues missed by 2%, while GAAP EPS was in-line with consensus and adjusted EPS only beat by 5.4%. Tesla hasn't seen numbers this weak since Q4 2020.
The closely watched Autmotive gross margin (ex-ZEV credits) were much worse than expected at 26.8% versus consensus estimates of 27.5%. 
On the earnings call, Musk said he would be buying Twitter. This will only add to the selling pressure from Tesla's weak Q3 results throughout next week. 


Tesla's Q3 Results Disappoint for the First Time Since Q4 2020

United States

Stellantis NV manufactures and markets automobiles and commercial vehicles. The Company also produces metallurgical products and production systems for the automobile industry, as well as owns publishing and insurance companies. Stellantis serves customers worldwide.

General Motors Co. manufactures and markets new cars and trucks. The Company offers features for special needs drivers, OnStar vehicle protection, service, parts, accessories, maintenance, XM satellite radio, features for commercial owners, and more. General Motors offers its vehicles and services worldwide.

Ford Motor Company designs, manufactures, and services cars and trucks.  The Company also provides vehicle-related financing, leasing, and insurance through its subsidiary.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells motorcycles.  The Company's products include heavyweight touring, custom, and performance motorcycles, as well as a line of motorcycle parts, accessories, and general merchandise.  Harley-Davidson also provides motorcycle floor planning and parts and accessories financing to its North American and European dealers.

Thor Industries, Inc. produces and sells a wide range of recreation vehicles.  The Company markets its products through independent dealers located throughout the United States and Canada.  Thor's products are sold under the Airstream Classic, Dutchmen, Skamper, Infinity, Four Winds, Citation, Signature, and other names.

Winnebago Industries, Inc. manufactures motor homes that are self-contained recreation vehicles used primarily in leisure travel and outdoor recreation activities.  The Company's motor homes are sold through dealer organizations under the Winnebago, Itasca, Rialta, and Ultimate brand names. Winnebago also manufactures extruded aluminum, commercial vehicles, and components.

Johnson Controls, Inc. markets automotive systems and building controls.  The Company supplies seating systems, interior systems, and batteries.  Johnson Controls also provides building control systems and services, energy management, and integrated facility management, as well as provides batteries for automobiles and hybrid electric vehicles.

Aptiv PLC manufactures vehicle components. The Company produces electronic safety for automobile and commercial vehicle manufacturers. Aptiv supplies original equipment manufacturers throughout the world.

Modine Manufacturing Company manufactures heat-transfer and heat-storage technology products.  The Company develops, manufactures, and markets heat exchangers and systems for use in various original equipment manufacturer applications and for sale to the automotive aftermarket and to a wide array of building markets.

Gentex Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets products that use electro-optic technology.  The Company's product lines include automatic-dimming rearview mirrors and fire protection products.  Gentex's Night Vision Safety Mirror automatically darkens to the degree required to eliminate rearview headlight glare.  The Company sells its products around the world.

NISSAN MOTOR CO., LTD. manufactures and distributes automobiles and related parts. It also provides financing services. Nissan delivers a comprehensive range of products under various brands. The Company manufactures in Japan, the United States, Mexico, the United Kingdom and many other countries.

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and develops, and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs.

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and distributes motorcycles, automobiles, and power products such as generators and farm machinery. The Company also operates a financial credit business. Honda Motor has manufacturing facilities in the US, Canada, the UK, France, Italy, Spain, Brazil, Mexico, India, and Thailand.

Hyundai Motor Company manufactures, sells, and exports passenger cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. The Company also sells various auto parts and operates auto repair service centers throughout South Korea. Hyundai Motor provides financial services through its subsidiaries.

Kia Corporation manufactures, sells, and exports passenger cars, mini-buses, trucks and commercial vehicles. The Company also manufactures auto-parts and tools using hybrid electric and fuel cell technology. Kia markets its products worldwide.

Tata Motors Limited manufactures cars and commercial automotive vehicles in India. The Company designs, manufactures and sells heavy commercial, medium commercial and small commercial vehicles including trucks, tankers, vans, buses, ambulances and minibuses. Tata also manufactures small cars and sports utility vehicles.

Suzuki Motor Corporation manufactures automobiles, motorcycles, and their related parts. The Company has production facilities in USA, Japan, Taiwan, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Thailand, and Hungary.

Maruti Suzuki India Limited manufactures and exports automobiles. Maruti collaborated with Suzuki of Japan to produce affordable cars for the average Indian.

Hero MotoCorp Ltd. designs, manufactures and distributes motorcycles. The Company's products also include motorcycle parts and accessories.

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

With No Surprise, Diodes Guides Automotive/Industrial Semi Demand to Fall over 20% Q/Q

With No Surprise, Diodes Guides Automotive/Industrial Semi Demand to Fall over 20% Q/Q, margin contraction, and rising months of inventory. We see...

Andrew Lu

Tesla Q4 Miss Is Big & Sets the Stage for a Drop in 2023 Profits

Tesla sees a 9% earnings miss and warns that raw material headwinds remain in 2023. Recent consensus estimates for 2023 now imply at least a 2%...

SC Capital

Elon Has "Freed" Twitter: Send The Ravens

Elon Musk closed his Twitter deal yesterday as confirmed today via SEC filing to delist its stock. Still no filing that Elon sold Tesla to cover...

Vicki Bryan

Tesla's Q3 Results Disappoint for the First Time Since Q4 2020

What was expected to be a Q3 beat at Tesla turned into a Q3 disappointment. Many accounting tricks appear to have padded cash flows and Tesla...

SC Capital

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