Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

The S&amp;P DJI Global Indices team <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20201211-1277389/1277389_tes15aircaivspindnkn4.pdf?force_download=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">confirmed</a> Friday night that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> would join the S&amp;P500 and the S&amp;P100 at the close of trading on 18 December, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apartment-invt-mgmt-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2193:1" rel="noopener">Apartment Invt &amp; Mgmt Co A (AIV US)</a> coming out of S&amp;P500 and its 14 December spin-out Apartment Income REIT replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dunkin-brands-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15866:1" rel="noopener">Dunkin' Brands Group (DNKN US)</a> in the S&amp;P Midcap 400, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/occidental-petroleum-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17075:1" rel="noopener">Occidental Petroleum (OXY US)</a> coming out of the S&amp;P100 but staying in the S&amp;P500. When the S&amp;P announced on the 16th of November that Tesla would be joining the S&amp;P500 in December, it said the pro-forma inclusion weight would be ~1.01% (without measuring what would come out). S&amp;P also said that it would update the pro-forma inclusion weight and trading value impact when the Deletion was announced, but they did not. My calc suggests it is 1.47% as of Friday's close. And the two-way trading value based on the S&amp;P's original US$51bn number is, as of today, ~US$152bn.Which is a lot.The arithmetic, and an explanation of why it matters, follow.

The S&amp;P DJI Global Indices team confirmed Friday night that Tesla Motors (TSLA US) would join the S&amp;P500 and the S&amp;P100 at the close of trading on 18 December, with Apartment Invt &amp; Mgmt Co A (AIV US) coming out of S&amp;P500 and its 14 December spin-out Apartment Income REIT replacing Dunkin' Brands Group (DNKN US) in the S&amp;P Midcap 400, and Occidental Petroleum (OXY US) coming out of the S&amp;P100 but staying in the S&amp;P500. When the S&amp;P announced on the 16th of November that Tesla would be joining the S&amp;P500 in December, it said the pro-forma inclusion weight would be ~1.01% (without measuring what would come out). S&amp;P also said that it would update the pro-forma inclusion weight and trading value impact when the Deletion was announced, but they did not. My calc suggests it is 1.47% as of Friday's close. And the two-way trading value based on the S&amp;P's original US$51bn number is, as of today, ~US$152bn.Which is a lot.The arithmetic, and an explanation of why it matters, follow.

Tesla Into S&P - Rebal Details, and Implications for Vol and Active Portfolio Reconstruction

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> CEO Elon Musk should be having a great week. But then the stock dropped on news the company plans to raise another $5 billion from selling stock. Then he complained to the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-decries-m-b-a-ization-of-america-11607548589" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Wall Street Journal</a> that there were too many MBA-types paying too much attention to financial performance of companies and not enough on producing quality products.Which is very interesting because this seems to me to be exactly what Tesla does, not that it seemed to deter investors one bit from gobbling up its $5 billion secondary offering.<a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-jobs-report-was-ugly-but-it-may-be-good-news-for-stocks-51607130127" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Barron's</a> noticed it too, and how much Tesla,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doordash-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28881:1" rel="noopener">DoorDash Inc (DASH US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airbnb-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:431:1" rel="noopener">Airbnb Inc (ABNBUS)</a> and other similarly inflated deals out this week felt like 1999—and not in a good way.

Tesla Motors (TSLA US) CEO Elon Musk should be having a great week. But then the stock dropped on news the company plans to raise another $5 billion from selling stock. Then he complained to the Wall Street Journal that there were too many MBA-types paying too much attention to financial performance of companies and not enough on producing quality products.Which is very interesting because this seems to me to be exactly what Tesla does, not that it seemed to deter investors one bit from gobbling up its $5 billion secondary offering.Barron's noticed it too, and how much Tesla,DoorDash Inc (DASH US), and Airbnb Inc (ABNBUS) and other similarly inflated deals out this week felt like 1999—and not in a good way.

Barron's Weighs in On "Frenzied Pops" Like Tesla Vs Wary Skeptics Like...

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (NIO US)</a> is looking to raise about US$2.5bn in its follow-on offering. Proceeds raised will be mainly used for R&amp;D, sales and service network expansion and market penetration.In this note, we will discuss deal dynamics, valuation, and how we think one should position their trade.We have earlier covered the company's IPO, lock-up expiry event, and its June and August 2020 placement in:<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nio-s-guidance-makes-selling-upon-lock-expiry-more-compelling" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:28425" rel="noopener">NIO's (蔚来) Guidance Makes Selling upon Lock-Expiry More Compelling</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nio-lock-up-expiry-scattered-pre-ipo-investors-to-be-the-sellers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:28392" rel="noopener">NIO (蔚来) Lock-Up Expiry - Scattered Pre-IPO Investors to Be the Sellers</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nio-ipo-review-blue-sky-assumptions-value-it-at-just-a-small-discount-to-peers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:23179" rel="noopener">NIO (蔚来) IPO Review - Blue Sky Assumptions Value It at Just a Small Discount to Peers</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nio-pre-ipo-review-as-one-player-looks-to-delist-another-one-looks-to-list" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:23070" rel="noopener">NIO (蔚来) Pre-IPO Review - As One Player Looks to Delist, Another One Looks to List</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nio-placement-out-of-the-woods-for-now" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40206" rel="noopener">NIO (蔚来) Placement - Out of the Woods, for Now</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nio-placement-buying-itself-out-of-nio-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42667" rel="noopener">NIO (蔚来) Placement - Buying Itself Out of NIO China</a> </li>
</ul>

NIO Inc (NIO US) is looking to raise about US$2.5bn in its follow-on offering. Proceeds raised will be mainly used for R&amp;D, sales and service network expansion and market penetration.In this note, we will discuss deal dynamics, valuation, and how we think one should position their trade.We have earlier covered the company's IPO, lock-up expiry event, and its June and August 2020 placement in:

NIO's (蔚来) Guidance Makes Selling upon Lock-Expiry More Compelling 

NIO (蔚来) Lock-Up Expiry - Scattered Pre-IPO Investors to Be the Sellers 

NIO (蔚来) IPO Review - Blue Sky Assumptions Value It at Just a Small Discount to Peers 

NIO (蔚来) Pre-IPO Review - As One Player Looks to Delist, Another One Looks to List 

NIO (蔚来) Placement - Out of the Woods, for Now 

NIO (蔚来) Placement - Buying Itself Out of NIO China 


NIO (蔚来) Placement - As Expected. Now, You Choose.

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker, Global Equity Research Ltd

Rickin Thakrar

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Sea announced a placement of its shares with the hopes of raising approximately 2bn USD. Sea shares have had a phenomenal run with the shares rising almost six-fold over the past year driven by strong top-line growth and the potential for a unique one-way adoption ecosystem in e-commerce and payments. Our updated view is below the foldOur previous bullish research on Sea  is below<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sea-limited-3q-results-driving-a-new-pillar-of-growth" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45445" rel="noopener">Sea Limited 3Q Results: Driving a New Pillar of Growth</a> <div><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sea-limited-can-the-good-times-continue-to-roll" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42356" rel="noopener">Sea Limited: Can the Good Times Continue to Roll?</a> </div><div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sea-limited-opportunistic-offering-or-building-a-war-chest" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:34457" rel="noopener">Sea Limited: Opportunistic Offering or Building a War-Chest?</a> 

</div>

Sea announced a placement of its shares with the hopes of raising approximately 2bn USD. Sea shares have had a phenomenal run with the shares rising almost six-fold over the past year driven by strong top-line growth and the potential for a unique one-way adoption ecosystem in e-commerce and payments. Our updated view is below the foldOur previous bullish research on Sea  is belowSea Limited 3Q Results: Driving a New Pillar of Growth Sea Limited: Can the Good Times Continue to Roll? 
Sea Limited: Opportunistic Offering or Building a War-Chest? 



Sea Limited Placement: Hoping for a Cheap Entry Point for This Unique Growth Story

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> announced Tuesday morning that it plans to raise up to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-plans-stock-sale-closing-year-of-soaring-gains-11607444177?mod=article_inline" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$5 billion in new sales of stock</a> over time at prevailing market prices. As the third offering this year, including just three months ago, Tesla stands to raise more than $12 billion.And why not, say Tesla fans. With the stock up 674% so far this year, it has become only the <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-becomes-only-the-sixth-company-to-top-600-billion-in-value-51607377650" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sixth company ever to hit $600 </a><a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-becomes-only-the-sixth-company-to-top-600-billion-in-value-51607377650" target="_blank" rel="noopener">billion</a> in market value. <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-to-be-added-to-s-p-500-index-11605566006?mod=article_inline" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In two weeks it will added</a> to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a>.Such blind enthusiasm dismisses Tesla's problematic sales trends, its chronic lack of core unprofitability and free cash flow, it's increasingly threatened prospects, and more.Or that Tesla needs to borrow every quarter and stretch its payables and sell record amounts of stock after reporting last January that it had “<a href="https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/O7WXQA_TSLA_Update_Letter_2019-4Q_BPWOH4.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">grown to the point of being self-funding</a>.” Not even close.Yet investors remain unconcerned, and Tesla knows it.<div class="content-highlight">The full Bond Angle report continues below.</div>

Tesla Motors (TSLA US) announced Tuesday morning that it plans to raise up to $5 billion in new sales of stock over time at prevailing market prices. As the third offering this year, including just three months ago, Tesla stands to raise more than $12 billion.And why not, say Tesla fans. With the stock up 674% so far this year, it has become only the sixth company ever to hit $600 billion in market value. In two weeks it will added to the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX).Such blind enthusiasm dismisses Tesla's problematic sales trends, its chronic lack of core unprofitability and free cash flow, it's increasingly threatened prospects, and more.Or that Tesla needs to borrow every quarter and stretch its payables and sell record amounts of stock after reporting last January that it had “grown to the point of being self-funding.” Not even close.Yet investors remain unconcerned, and Tesla knows it.The full Bond Angle report continues below.

Tesla to Sell Another $5 Billion in Stock—Might As Well

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

Tesla Into S&P - Rebal Details, and Implications for Vol and Active Portfolio Reconstruction

The TSLA S&P500 inclusion involves $150bn of direct flows and perhaps another $200-300bn indirect flows. It really is a MAMMOTH trade. And index...

Travis Lundy

Barron's Weighs in On "Frenzied Pops" Like Tesla Vs Wary Skeptics Like...

Barron's notes "frenzied" deals this week like Tesla, DoorDash, and AirBnB seem like 1999 exuberance all over again, but there also are "skilled"...

Vicki Bryan

NIO (蔚来) Placement - As Expected. Now, You Choose.

NIO Inc (NIO US) is looking to raise about US$2.5bn in its follow-on offering. Proceeds raised will be mainly used for R&D, sales and service...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Sea Limited Placement: Hoping for a Cheap Entry Point for This Unique Growth Story

Sea announced a placement of its shares with the hopes of raising approximately 2bn USD. Sea shares have had a phenomenal run with the shares...

Rickin Thakrar

Tesla to Sell Another $5 Billion in Stock—Might As Well

Tesla is selling another $5 billion in stock—because it can and, surprisingly, it probably needs the cash. That doesn't mean investors should buy.

Vicki Bryan

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