IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/phc-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34198:1" rel="noopener">PHC Holdings (6523 JP)</a> is a leading diversified diagnostic, life sciences and medical device company serving global markets. PHC shareholders include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; Co Inc (KKR US)</a> (owns 48.0% of PHC), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP)</a> (21.1%), Life Science Institute (13.2%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/panasonic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:222:1" rel="noopener">Panasonic Corp (6752 JP)</a> (11.3%).</p></div><div><p>At the indicative price of JPY3,700 per share, PHC will have a market cap of JPY452 billion (US$4.1 billion). PHC plans to raise JPY172 billion ($1.57 billion) by offering 5.8 million primary shares (JPY22 billion raise) and 40.7 million secondary shares (JPY150 billion raise). </p></div><div><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/phc-holdings-ipo-initiation-sugar-high" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57915" rel="noopener">PHC Holdings IPO Initiation: Sugar High</a>, we opined that at first glance, PHC offers solid growth, stable and healthy margins along with solid cash generation. However, on an organic basis, the revenue has declined in each of the last two financial years. The strong growth in the recent first quarter was largely due to low comps and an unsustainable revenue boost from COVID-19 related products. We concluded that PHC’s fundamentals are mixed and we are inclined to watch this IPO from the sidelines.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>Our valuation analysis suggests that PHC is fully valued at the indicative price. In combination with the mixed fundamentals, we would pass on the IPO. </p></div>
</div></div>

PHC Holdings (6523 JP) is a leading diversified diagnostic, life sciences and medical device company serving global markets. PHC shareholders include KKR &amp; Co Inc (KKR US) (owns 48.0% of PHC), Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP) (21.1%), Life Science Institute (13.2%) and Panasonic Corp (6752 JP) (11.3%).At the indicative price of JPY3,700 per share, PHC will have a market cap of JPY452 billion (US$4.1 billion). PHC plans to raise JPY172 billion ($1.57 billion) by offering 5.8 million primary shares (JPY22 billion raise) and 40.7 million secondary shares (JPY150 billion raise). 
In PHC Holdings IPO Initiation: Sugar High, we opined that at first glance, PHC offers solid growth, stable and healthy margins along with solid cash generation. However, on an organic basis, the revenue has declined in each of the last two financial years. The strong growth in the recent first quarter was largely due to low comps and an unsustainable revenue boost from COVID-19 related products. We concluded that PHC’s fundamentals are mixed and we are inclined to watch this IPO from the sidelines.
Our valuation analysis suggests that PHC is fully valued at the indicative price. In combination with the mixed fundamentals, we would pass on the IPO. 


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<div><p>PHC Holdings and its shareholders aim to raise around US$1.8bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO. The company is backed by KKR (48.7% stake pre-listing), Mitsui (21.5%), Life Science Institute (13.4%) and Panasonic (11.5%).</p></div><div><p>PHC is engaged in the development, manufacturing and sale of healthcare devices and services. The company has three main segments: Diabetes Management (35% of FY21 revenue); Healthcare Services (37.9% of FY21 revenue); and Diagnosis/Life Science (26.1% of FY21 revenue).</p></div><div>
<p>We have covered the main aspects of the deal in our earlier note<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/phc-holdings-pre-ipo-many-companies-rolled-into-one" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> PHC Holdings Pre-IPO - Many companies rolled into one</a>.</p>
<p>In this note we will undertake a peer comparison.</p>
</div>

PHC Holdings and its shareholders aim to raise around US$1.8bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO. The company is backed by KKR (48.7% stake pre-listing), Mitsui (21.5%), Life Science Institute (13.4%) and Panasonic (11.5%).PHC is engaged in the development, manufacturing and sale of healthcare devices and services. The company has three main segments: Diabetes Management (35% of FY21 revenue); Healthcare Services (37.9% of FY21 revenue); and Diagnosis/Life Science (26.1% of FY21 revenue).
We have covered the main aspects of the deal in our earlier note PHC Holdings Pre-IPO - Many companies rolled into one.
In this note we will undertake a peer comparison.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Quantitative Analysis

<div>
<p>The BOJ's buying of ETFs continues but the pace has slowed in recent months. This does not mean we don't get ETF news, comments, etc. </p>
<p>BOJ Governor Kuroda was in front of parliament a week ago and talked about the BOJ's ETF-buying programmes. There are questions from former BOJ executives out in the wild about what the BOJ will do to a) stop buying, b) reduce its holdings in ETFs, etc. </p>
<p>Mr Kuroda was quite clear with his answer. From a Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/japan-economy-kuroda-etf-idUST9N2GT02I" target="_blank" rel="noopener">note</a> last week...</p>
</div><div><blockquote>
<p>The BOJ already buys ETFs “quite flexibly” and can reduce purchases when the market risk premium is not rising, Kuroda told parliament.</p>
<p>“If inflation hits our 2% target and an exit from our massive stimulus programme comes into sight, there will certainly be debate on how to end our ETF buying. But it’s premature to do so at this stage.”</p>
</blockquote></div><div>The proof is in the pudding.</div><div></div><div>Historically, the pattern based on analysis of the data was that if the AM session close of the market was lower than the previous full-day close, the BOJ would be in buying in the PM session. First it was when the market was down more than 100bp. Then it was 50bp. Then 25bp, then even when it was down at all. </div><div></div><div>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/173/908/original/Screenshot%202020-11-25%20at%2012.09.11%20PM.png?1606277380" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="173908"></figure></section><p>As the chart shows, the rolling 3mo and 6mo purchase total annualises out to ¥4.5 trillion and ¥5.0 trillion, respectively.  The BOJ has substantially lowered how much it is buying, mostly because the market is well-behaved. The buying they did the few times they were involved in January and February was ¥70bn a day. When risk went bad in March, they upped it to ¥100bn, then ¥120bn, and by mid-March had lifted the annual total limit to ¥11.7trln, buying ¥200bn on many days, and effectively in April, there were only two days where the market fell in the morning session and the BOJ was not in buying. Things looked up in markets as they were looking down fundamentally and the BOJ lowered its involvement as the risk premium wasn't rising when earnings projections were falling sharply. </p>
<div>
<p>However, I expect this lull is temporary. They are effectively building up a very large buffer so they can go in at a higher rate when necessary. With the market up 12% month-to-date, and US stocks seemingly on a tear of vaccine-related hope, and month-end globally looking very much like a sell of stocks to buy bonds from an allocator or risk-parity perspective, they may be back in before you think. </p>
<p>More discussion below the fold. </p>
</div>
</div>


The BOJ's buying of ETFs continues but the pace has slowed in recent months. This does not mean we don't get ETF news, comments, etc. 
BOJ Governor Kuroda was in front of parliament a week ago and talked about the BOJ's ETF-buying programmes. There are questions from former BOJ executives out in the wild about what the BOJ will do to a) stop buying, b) reduce its holdings in ETFs, etc. 
Mr Kuroda was quite clear with his answer. From a Reuters note last week...

The BOJ already buys ETFs “quite flexibly” and can reduce purchases when the market risk premium is not rising, Kuroda told parliament.
“If inflation hits our 2% target and an exit from our massive stimulus programme comes into sight, there will certainly be debate on how to end our ETF buying. But it’s premature to do so at this stage.”
The proof is in the pudding.Historically, the pattern based on analysis of the data was that if the AM session close of the market was lower than the previous full-day close, the BOJ would be in buying in the PM session. First it was when the market was down more than 100bp. Then it was 50bp. Then 25bp, then even when it was down at all. 
As the chart shows, the rolling 3mo and 6mo purchase total annualises out to ¥4.5 trillion and ¥5.0 trillion, respectively.  The BOJ has substantially lowered how much it is buying, mostly because the market is well-behaved. The buying they did the few times they were involved in January and February was ¥70bn a day. When risk went bad in March, they upped it to ¥100bn, then ¥120bn, and by mid-March had lifted the annual total limit to ¥11.7trln, buying ¥200bn on many days, and effectively in April, there were only two days where the market fell in the morning session and the BOJ was not in buying. Things looked up in markets as they were looking down fundamentally and the BOJ lowered its involvement as the risk premium wasn't rising when earnings projections were falling sharply. 

However, I expect this lull is temporary. They are effectively building up a very large buffer so they can go in at a higher rate when necessary. With the market up 12% month-to-date, and US stocks seemingly on a tear of vaccine-related hope, and month-end globally looking very much like a sell of stocks to buy bonds from an allocator or risk-parity perspective, they may be back in before you think. 
More discussion below the fold. 



JAPAN FLOW:  BOJ ETF Exit Fretting Is A Thing But Shouldn't Be. BOJ Buys Slower But Still Bigly

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><p>Thursday's best and worst pairing is herbal medicine specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsumura-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8042:1" rel="noopener">Tsumura (4540 JP)</a> and our'Suga Short' recommendation <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-fudosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:565:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)</a>. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/169/602/original/2020-11-04_06-51-11.png?1604607954" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="169602"></figure><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/169/603/original/2020-11-06_05-26-57.png?1604608032" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="169603"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>198 Quarterly Results</strong></p><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 43% Positive / 10% Neutral / 47% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -0.7 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -9.0% Quarter YoY / -7.0% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p>A<strong>verage Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.9ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 22%</p></li>
</ul><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>109 Annual • 29 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 46% Positive / 5% Neutral / 49% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 38% Positive / 7% Neutral / 55% Negative</p></li>
<li><p>Aver<strong>age Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -1.8 points</p></li>
</ul>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Thursday's best and worst pairing is herbal medicine specialist Tsumura (4540 JP) and our'Suga Short' recommendation Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP). Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS198 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 43% Positive / 10% Neutral / 47% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -0.7 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -9.0% Quarter YoY / -7.0% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.9ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 22%
109 Annual • 29 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 46% Positive / 5% Neutral / 49% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 38% Positive / 7% Neutral / 55% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -1.8 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​05 Tsumura, Sysmex, Terumo, Nintendo, MRE

<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE •</strong></p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/735/original/2020-09-23_11-03-49.png?1600826665" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160735"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/6h3m1giwbtzcupg/2020-09-23_11-03-49.png?dl=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PEAK OUTLIER</a></strong> - Since the onset of  COVID-19 in March, the degree of polarisation in the Japanese equity market as measured by our Relative Price Score [definition below] has increased significantly. Although only 3.1% and 5.1% of listed companies are Overbought and Oversold, respectively, their market weight represented is 10.8% and 6.2%. Such extreme outlier weightings have not occurred since the technology 'bubble' of 2000, and, since then, only during the 2008/9 financial crisis. Investors have increasingly held and bid up perceived long-term domestic non-manufacturing 'winners' without much regard for valuation while discarding Japan's manufacturers, and transportation, utility and energy companies as well as insurers and banks.  </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/736/original/2020-09-23_11-11-07.png?1600827080" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160736"></figure>
</div><p><strong>SECTOR TIMELINE</strong> - The twenty-eight-year history of Sector Relative Price Scores illustrates the ebbs and flows of investment themes in the market, from the 2000 Technology 'bubble' to the REIT and Real Estate peak of 2013/14, the <strong>Healthcare</strong> and <strong>FB&amp;T</strong> market of 2016/17. On the downside, there is greater Oversold 'persistence' in the <strong>Energy</strong>, <strong>Banks</strong>, <strong>Multi-Industry</strong> ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP))</a>  and <strong>Utilities</strong> Sectors. Currently, nine Sectors are Overbought, and four are Oversold - thirty-year and twenty-year highs, respectively.  </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/741/original/2020-09-23_11-39-24.png?1600828791" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160741"></figure><p>In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below, we provide an update on  Sector, Peer Group and individual company Relative Price Score trends and outliers and make some stock-specific comments.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p style="text-align: left;"><strong>RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS</strong> - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies on a comparable scale, <strong>'Overbought'</strong> and <strong>'Oversold' </strong>outliers and short-term changes in scoring can offer some trading opportunities. The data for all 3,883 currently-listed Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our 328 Peer Groups and 30 Sectors. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at <strong>+4</strong> &amp; <strong>-2</strong> for Companies, <strong>+3</strong> &amp; <strong>-1.5</strong> for Peer Groups and<strong> +2</strong> and<strong> -1</strong> for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of over <strong>3.2</strong> million observations.</p></div>


• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE •
Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics
PEAK OUTLIER - Since the onset of  COVID-19 in March, the degree of polarisation in the Japanese equity market as measured by our Relative Price Score [definition below] has increased significantly. Although only 3.1% and 5.1% of listed companies are Overbought and Oversold, respectively, their market weight represented is 10.8% and 6.2%. Such extreme outlier weightings have not occurred since the technology 'bubble' of 2000, and, since then, only during the 2008/9 financial crisis. Investors have increasingly held and bid up perceived long-term domestic non-manufacturing 'winners' without much regard for valuation while discarding Japan's manufacturers, and transportation, utility and energy companies as well as insurers and banks.  

SECTOR TIMELINE - The twenty-eight-year history of Sector Relative Price Scores illustrates the ebbs and flows of investment themes in the market, from the 2000 Technology 'bubble' to the REIT and Real Estate peak of 2013/14, the Healthcare and FB&amp;T market of 2016/17. On the downside, there is greater Oversold 'persistence' in the Energy, Banks, Multi-Industry ( Japan Post (6178 JP))  and Utilities Sectors. Currently, nine Sectors are Overbought, and four are Oversold - thirty-year and twenty-year highs, respectively.  In the DETAIL section below, we provide an update on  Sector, Peer Group and individual company Relative Price Score trends and outliers and make some stock-specific comments.RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can offer some trading opportunities. The data for all 3,883 currently-listed Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our 328 Peer Groups and 30 Sectors. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at +4 &amp; -2 for Companies, +3 &amp; -1.5 for Peer Groups and +2 and -1 for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of over 3.2 million observations.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • September Relative Price Scores - Profiting from Outlier Mean Reversion

Japan

TERUMO CORPORATION is a manufacturer and supplier of pharmaceuticals and medical tools and equipment.  The Company's products include health foods, transfusion and infusion equipment, disposable medical supply, clinical testing systems, artificial organs, and electronic thermometers.  Terumo markets the products through its subsidiaries and sales offices in the US, Europe, and Asia.

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Terumo Corp (4543 JP)

PHC Holdings IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that PHC is fully valued at the indicative price. In combination with the mixed fundamentals, we would pass on the...

Arun George

PHC Holdings Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison

PHC Holdings and its shareholders aim to raise around US$1.8bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO. The company is...

Sumeet Singh

JAPAN FLOW: BOJ ETF Exit Fretting Is A Thing But Shouldn't Be. BOJ Buys Slower But Still Bigly

The BOJ is still buying, and Kuroda-san says it will continue, despite a new wave of questions about the policy, and eventual exiting. Exit is...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/05 Tsumura, Sysmex, Terumo, Nintendo, MRE

• BEST & WORST • Thursday's best and worst pairing is herbal medicine specialist Tsumura (4540 JP) and our'Suga Short' recommendation Mitsui...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • September Relative Price Scores - Profiting from Outlier Mean Reversion

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE • RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX...

Campbell Gunn

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52-week Range

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PHC Holdings IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that PHC is fully valued at the indicative price. In combination with the mixed fundamentals, we would pass on the...

Arun George

PHC Holdings Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison

PHC Holdings and its shareholders aim to raise around US$1.8bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO. The company is...

Sumeet Singh

JAPAN FLOW: BOJ ETF Exit Fretting Is A Thing But Shouldn't Be. BOJ Buys Slower But Still Bigly

The BOJ is still buying, and Kuroda-san says it will continue, despite a new wave of questions about the policy, and eventual exiting. Exit is...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​05 Tsumura, Sysmex, Terumo, Nintendo, MRE

• BEST & WORST • Thursday's best and worst pairing is herbal medicine specialist Tsumura (4540 JP) and our'Suga Short' recommendation Mitsui...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • September Relative Price Scores - Profiting from Outlier Mean Reversion

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE • RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/05 Tsumura, Sysmex, Terumo, Nintendo, MRE