Event-Driven Investment Opportunities, Special Situation Investments

Dalius Tauraitis

Event-Driven Investment Opportunities

Special Situation Investments

Focus on event-driven trades and low risk arbitrage opportunities with short term catalysts

Event-Driven

<ul><li>SSI Tracking Portfolio decreased by 0.7% in September but has increased by 8.4% year-to-date, with a detailed performance breakdown available.</li><li>Territorial Bancorp (TBNK) merger arbitrage opportunity presents a 17% upside; shareholder vote on Hope Bancorp merger set for October 10.</li><li>OCI N.V. closed its Clean Ammonia business sale, with 80% consideration received; further asset sales pending completion.</li></ul>

SSI Tracking Portfolio decreased by 0.7% in September but has increased by 8.4% year-to-date, with a detailed performance breakdown available.Territorial Bancorp (TBNK) merger arbitrage opportunity presents a 17% upside; shareholder vote on Hope Bancorp merger set for October 10.OCI N.V. closed its Clean Ammonia business sale, with 80% consideration received; further asset sales pending completion.

SSI Newsletter: September Performance, TBNK Merger Arbitrage, OCI Asset Sale, MMLP Privatization

<ul><li>Territorial Bancorp's merger with Hope Bancorp offers a 0.8048 stock ratio, equating to $9.8 per TBNK share.</li><li>Activist Allan Landon proposed a competing all-cash bid of $12.5/share, with a 23% upside potential.</li><li>ISS recommends voting against the Hope merger, citing Landon's offer as credible and urging management engagement.</li></ul>

Territorial Bancorp's merger with Hope Bancorp offers a 0.8048 stock ratio, equating to $9.8 per TBNK share.Activist Allan Landon proposed a competing all-cash bid of $12.5/share, with a 23% upside potential.ISS recommends voting against the Hope merger, citing Landon's offer as credible and urging management engagement.

Territorial Bancorp Faces Acquisition Dilemma: Hope Bancorp Merger vs. Activist's Superior Cash Offer

<ul><li>Embracer Group faces a 20%-50% conglomerate discount, with potential catalysts including spinoffs and increased LOTR franchise awareness.</li><li>DMC Global's strategic review concluded without a sale; business performance is weaker, impacting Arcadia Products and DynaEnergetics.</li><li>Martin Midstream Partners' acquisition by its GP at $4.02/share faces activist opposition, risking a deal collapse.</li></ul>

Embracer Group faces a 20%-50% conglomerate discount, with potential catalysts including spinoffs and increased LOTR franchise awareness.DMC Global's strategic review concluded without a sale; business performance is weaker, impacting Arcadia Products and DynaEnergetics.Martin Midstream Partners' acquisition by its GP at $4.02/share faces activist opposition, risking a deal collapse.

SSI Newsletter Highlights: Merger Arbitrage, Strategic Reviews, and Activist Investor Developments

<ul><li>OCI N.V. (OCI:AS) will close its third asset sale next week, potentially announcing a €14.5/share dividend.</li><li>Liquidia (LQDA) saw a 10% share price increase after the Supreme Court rejected UTHR’s patent appeal.</li><li>Finch Therapeutics Group (FNCH) could see enhanced damages from Ferring Pharmaceuticals due to willful patent infringement.</li></ul>

OCI N.V. (OCI:AS) will close its third asset sale next week, potentially announcing a €14.5/share dividend.Liquidia (LQDA) saw a 10% share price increase after the Supreme Court rejected UTHR’s patent appeal.Finch Therapeutics Group (FNCH) could see enhanced damages from Ferring Pharmaceuticals due to willful patent infringement.

SSI Newsletter Highlights: OCI Asset Sale, BOOM Review, LQDA Patent Win, MSTR Premium

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>High frequency data in the US for mortgage loan applications and mortgage loan volume is improving, not suggestive of recession</li>
<li>Total domestic credit growth in the US is accelerating in recent months, and this can continue given the HFD on mortgages</li>
<li>Credit metrics can remain a concern, especially in CRE and card lending, despite the improved delta in mortgage lending and total lending</li>
</ul>


High frequency data in the US for mortgage loan applications and mortgage loan volume is improving, not suggestive of recession
Total domestic credit growth in the US is accelerating in recent months, and this can continue given the HFD on mortgages
Credit metrics can remain a concern, especially in CRE and card lending, despite the improved delta in mortgage lending and total lending


US Banks & Economy - HFD Mortgage Data Shows Weekly Improvements, Credit Growth Improving in US

United States

Territorial Bancorp, Inc. is a bank holding company.  The Company's banking subsidiary accepts deposits and offers residential mortgages; home equity lines of credit; construction, commercial and non-residential real estate loans; consumer loans; and other loans to customers in Hawaii.

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Territorial Bancorp (TBNK US)

Territorial Bancorp Faces Acquisition Dilemma: Hope Bancorp Merger vs. Activist's Superior Cash Offer

Territorial Bancorp's merger with Hope Bancorp offers a 0.8048 stock ratio, equating to $9.8 per TBNK share.

Special Situation Investments

US Banks & Economy - HFD Mortgage Data Shows Weekly Improvements, Credit Growth Improving in US

HFD on mortgage loans is improving substantially, not suggestive of a weakening economy, impending recession. Overall loan growth is also...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SSI Newsletter: September Performance, TBNK Merger Arbitrage, OCI Asset Sale, MMLP Privatization

SSI Tracking Portfolio decreased by 0.7% in September but has increased by 8.4% year-to-date, with a detailed performance breakdown available.

Special Situation Investments

Territorial Bancorp Faces Acquisition Dilemma: Hope Bancorp Merger vs. Activist's Superior Cash Offer

Territorial Bancorp's merger with Hope Bancorp offers a 0.8048 stock ratio, equating to $9.8 per TBNK share.

Special Situation Investments

SSI Newsletter Highlights: Merger Arbitrage, Strategic Reviews, and Activist Investor Developments

Embracer Group faces a 20%-50% conglomerate discount, with potential catalysts including spinoffs and increased LOTR franchise awareness.

Special Situation Investments

SSI Newsletter Highlights: OCI Asset Sale, BOOM Review, LQDA Patent Win, MSTR Premium

OCI N.V. (OCI:AS) will close its third asset sale next week, potentially announcing a €14.5/share dividend. Liquidia (LQDA) saw a 10% share price...

Special Situation Investments

US Banks & Economy - HFD Mortgage Data Shows Weekly Improvements, Credit Growth Improving in US

HFD on mortgage loans is improving substantially, not suggestive of a weakening economy, impending recession. Overall loan growth is also...

Daniel Tabbush