Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Advertising, international game, and Fintech grew by two digits, but domestic entertainments were stagnant.</li>
<li>The gross margins of all business lines improved and admin expense as percentage of total revenue decreased.</li>
<li>We believe the stock has an upside of 30% for the year end of 2024.</li>
</ul>


Advertising, international game, and Fintech grew by two digits, but domestic entertainments were stagnant.
The gross margins of all business lines improved and admin expense as percentage of total revenue decreased.
We believe the stock has an upside of 30% for the year end of 2024.


Tencent (700 HK): Raise Margin Estimates After 3Q23 Results, 30% Upside, Buy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This is the somewhat brand-spanking-new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND flows the last four weeks clearly indicate a momentum move. The top net sells are all down. The top buys are all up.</li>
<li>Tencent and three ETFs see the top net buys as SOUTHBOUND bought HK$18.4bn this past week. Energy and Telco net sales persist. And persist. And persist.</li>
</ul>


This is the somewhat brand-spanking-new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.
SOUTHBOUND flows the last four weeks clearly indicate a momentum move. The top net sells are all down. The top buys are all up.
Tencent and three ETFs see the top net buys as SOUTHBOUND bought HK$18.4bn this past week. Energy and Telco net sales persist. And persist. And persist.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND (To 10 Nov 23); High-Div SOEs AGAIN See Outflows, Tencent and ETFs Big Buys

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Wednesday will be a busy day as positions are put on and unwound following announcement of the changes to the MSC indices.</li>
<li>Friday will end the review cutoff for the ASX indices and Hang Seng Indexes will announce the December changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI post market close.</li>
<li>Another week of large outflows for China focused ETFs with redemptions across all the major indices.</li>
</ul>


Wednesday will be a busy day as positions are put on and unwound following announcement of the changes to the MSC indices.
Friday will end the review cutoff for the ASX indices and Hang Seng Indexes will announce the December changes for the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI post market close.
Another week of large outflows for China focused ETFs with redemptions across all the major indices.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: SSE50, Chinext/50, Renesas, Tencent, Amman Mineral

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>We expect that Tencent’s C3Q23’s revenue/non-IFRS operating profit/IFRS net income to be 2.3%/3.3%/4.2% above consensus.</li>
<li>We raised estimates of Tencent’s international game growth to 12% YoY to reflect the success. We also expect Tencent's advertising business to benefit from e-commerce advertisers’ competition.</li>
<li>We raised the Target Price to HK$425, which implies 22.4X PE in 2024.</li>
</ul>


We expect that Tencent’s C3Q23’s revenue/non-IFRS operating profit/IFRS net income to be 2.3%/3.3%/4.2% above consensus.
We raised estimates of Tencent’s international game growth to 12% YoY to reflect the success. We also expect Tencent's advertising business to benefit from e-commerce advertisers’ competition.
We raised the Target Price to HK$425, which implies 22.4X PE in 2024.


[Tencent(700 HK,BUY,TP HK$425)Target Price Change]: International Game and Advertising Drove Results

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> announced in-specie dividends of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> (US$15bn+) in 2021 and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> (US$20bn) in 2022.</li>
<li>With the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> Board meeting on 15 November to approve Q3 results and considering the payment of a dividend, the pattern could repeat this year.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> owns stakes of US$1bn+ in 10 listed companies. We take a look at the stocks that could be next in line to be paid as in-specie dividends.</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK) announced in-specie dividends of JD.com (9618 HK) (US$15bn+) in 2021 and Meituan (3690 HK) (US$20bn) in 2022.
With the Tencent (700 HK) Board meeting on 15 November to approve Q3 results and considering the payment of a dividend, the pattern could repeat this year.

Tencent (700 HK) owns stakes of US$1bn+ in 10 listed companies. We take a look at the stocks that could be next in line to be paid as in-specie dividends.


Tencent (700 HK): Board Meets Next Week; In-Specie Dividend Candidates

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent (700 HK)

Tencent (700 HK): Raise Margin Estimates After 3Q23 Results, 30% Upside, Buy

Advertising, international game, and Fintech grew by two digits, but domestic entertainments were stagnant. The gross margins of all business lines...

Ming Lu

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND (To 10 Nov 23); High-Div SOEs AGAIN See Outflows, Tencent and ETFs Big Buys

In last week's SOUTHBOUND flows, high dividend SOEs such as China Mobile and CNOOC again saw net selling while Tencent and three major listed ETFs...

Travis Lundy

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: SSE50, Chinext/50, Renesas, Tencent, Amman Mineral

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

[Tencent(700 HK,BUY,TP HK$425)Target Price Change]: International Game and Advertising Drove Results

Tencent's Q3 results are expected to exceed consensus, with increased estimates for international game growth and advertising business benefiting...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Tencent (700 HK): Board Meets Next Week; In-Specie Dividend Candidates

Tencent could make it a hat-trick of special in-specie dividend distributions. After JD.com and Meituan, Kuaishou could be next. Or it could be...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tencent (700 HK): Raise Margin Estimates After 3Q23 Results, 30% Upside, Buy

Advertising, international game, and Fintech grew by two digits, but domestic entertainments were stagnant. The gross margins of all business lines...

Ming Lu

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND (To 10 Nov 23); High-Div SOEs AGAIN See Outflows, Tencent and ETFs Big Buys

In last week's SOUTHBOUND flows, high dividend SOEs such as China Mobile and CNOOC again saw net selling while Tencent and three major listed ETFs...

Travis Lundy

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: SSE50, Chinext/50, Renesas, Tencent, Amman Mineral

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

[Tencent(700 HK,BUY,TP HK$425)Target Price Change]: International Game and Advertising Drove Results

​Tencent's Q3 results are expected to exceed consensus, with increased estimates for international game growth and advertising business benefiting...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Tencent (700 HK): Board Meets Next Week; In-Specie Dividend Candidates

Tencent could make it a hat-trick of special in-specie dividend distributions. After JD.com and Meituan, Kuaishou could be next. Or it could be...

Brian Freitas

Tencent's Q3 results are expected to exceed consensus, with increased estimates for international game growth and advertising business benefiting...