Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tencent reported C3Q23 revenue, non-IFRS operating profit and IFRS net income (2.4%), 8.9% and 17% versus our estimates. The bottom-line beat was mainly due to the growth of high-margin businesses;  </li>
<li>We view commercialization of Video Accounts and expansion of overseas gaming are still at early stage.</li>
<li>Progression of these high-margin, high-quality business will persist into 2024;  We maintain BUY but raise target price to HK$ 432. </li>
</ul>


Tencent reported C3Q23 revenue, non-IFRS operating profit and IFRS net income (2.4%), 8.9% and 17% versus our estimates. The bottom-line beat was mainly due to the growth of high-margin businesses;  
We view commercialization of Video Accounts and expansion of overseas gaming are still at early stage.
Progression of these high-margin, high-quality business will persist into 2024;  We maintain BUY but raise target price to HK$ 432. 


[Tencent(700 HK, BUY, TP HK$432)Target Price Change]: More Sustained Growth Doesn’t Mean Slow Growth

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Tencent reported 3Q23 financial results on 15 Nov: total revenue grew 10% YoY to RMB154.6bn, inline with our/consensus estimate.</li><li>Non-IFRS net income grew by 39% YoY to RMB44.9bn in 3Q23, beating our/consensus estimate by 11/12%, mainly due to the solid GPM expansion across business lines.</li><li>3Q23 GPM expanded by 5.2ppt YoY to 49.5% (vs. consensus’ 47.5%) on the strong operating leverage and incremental revenue from higher-margin innovative businesses (i.e. Mini Games and Video Accounts etc). </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Tencent reported 3Q23 financial results on 15 Nov: total revenue grew 10% YoY to RMB154.6bn, inline with our/consensus estimate.Non-IFRS net income grew by 39% YoY to RMB44.9bn in 3Q23, beating our/consensus estimate by 11/12%, mainly due to the solid GPM expansion across business lines.3Q23 GPM expanded by 5.2ppt YoY to 49.5% (vs. consensus’ 47.5%) on the strong operating leverage and incremental revenue from higher-margin innovative businesses (i.e. Mini Games and Video Accounts etc). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tencent  (700 HK) – 3Q23 Earnings Beat on Strong Operating Leverage and Business Innovation

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> ’s 3Q2023 revenues fell marginally below consensus, however, OP beat consensus estimates. Domestic games returned to growth after a flat quarter in 2Q2023.</li>
<li>Both Online Advertising and Fintech businesses have seen strong increase in top line with GPM approaching new highs for the two businesses.</li>
<li>Though Tencent’s earnings show a recovery, we would remain cautious given the slowdown in Chinese economy and Tencent failing to make into new game approval list since July 2023.</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK) ’s 3Q2023 revenues fell marginally below consensus, however, OP beat consensus estimates. Domestic games returned to growth after a flat quarter in 2Q2023.
Both Online Advertising and Fintech businesses have seen strong increase in top line with GPM approaching new highs for the two businesses.
Though Tencent’s earnings show a recovery, we would remain cautious given the slowdown in Chinese economy and Tencent failing to make into new game approval list since July 2023.


Tencent: Domestic Gaming Returns to Growth

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Advertising, international game, and Fintech grew by two digits, but domestic entertainments were stagnant.</li>
<li>The gross margins of all business lines improved and admin expense as percentage of total revenue decreased.</li>
<li>We believe the stock has an upside of 30% for the year end of 2024.</li>
</ul>


Advertising, international game, and Fintech grew by two digits, but domestic entertainments were stagnant.
The gross margins of all business lines improved and admin expense as percentage of total revenue decreased.
We believe the stock has an upside of 30% for the year end of 2024.


Tencent (700 HK): Raise Margin Estimates After 3Q23 Results, 30% Upside, Buy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This is the somewhat brand-spanking-new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND flows the last four weeks clearly indicate a momentum move. The top net sells are all down. The top buys are all up.</li>
<li>Tencent and three ETFs see the top net buys as SOUTHBOUND bought HK$18.4bn this past week. Energy and Telco net sales persist. And persist. And persist.</li>
</ul>


This is the somewhat brand-spanking-new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.
SOUTHBOUND flows the last four weeks clearly indicate a momentum move. The top net sells are all down. The top buys are all up.
Tencent and three ETFs see the top net buys as SOUTHBOUND bought HK$18.4bn this past week. Energy and Telco net sales persist. And persist. And persist.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND (To 10 Nov 23); High-Div SOEs AGAIN See Outflows, Tencent and ETFs Big Buys

China

Baidu, Inc. operates an Internet search engine. The Company offers algorithmic search, enterprise search, news, MP3, and image searches, voice assistance, online storage, and navigation services. Baidu serves clients globally.

East Money Information Co., Ltd. operates online financial information platform.  The Company's products include internet advertising and financial data.

NetEase, Inc. is an Internet technology company that develops applications, services and other Internet technologies in China. The Company's core businesses consist of email service, web portal and online entertainment, including online gaming services. NetEase also offers online advertising, search, mobile applications and e-commerce.

Hithink RoyalFlush Information Network Co Ltd provides online financial data, data analysis software, and other financial software system.

Hithink RoyalFlush Information Network (300033 CH)

People.cn Company Limited mainly engages in internet advertising, information services, mobile value-added and technical services. The Company's main products include original messages, government information services, public opinion research and consulting, mobile news, and ISP services.

Autohome Inc is an online destination for automobile consumers in China.  The Company delivers comprehensive, independent and interactive content to automobile buyers and owners.

Wangsu Science & Technology Co., Ltd. provides online business solutions in China. The Company also provides Content Delivery Network (CDN), and Internet Data Centers (IDC).

Shanghai Wangsu Science & Technology Co (300017 CH)

Beijing Sinnet Technology Company Limited provides customers with broadband access services, IDC and its value-added services, and other internet integrated services. The Company's core business are broadband access services, IDC and its value-added services.

GDS Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, develops and operates data centers. GDS Holdings offers risk and security management, information technology planing, remote monitoring, cloud hosting, virtualization, disaster recovery, and remote data protection services.

INESA Intelligent Tech Inc. operates in the IT industry. The Company designs and manages cloud servers and big data applications for businesses. INESA Intelligent also manufactures electronic components.

eBay Inc. operates an online trading community.  The Company's service is used by buyers and sellers for the exchange of products and services such as coins, collectibles, computers, memorabilia, stamps and toys, as well as concert and sporting tickets.  eBay also offers, through a subsidiary, secure online payment services.

VeriSign Inc provides domain names and Internet security, enabling the world to connect online with reliability and confidence, anytime, anywhere. The Company ensures the security, stability and resiliency of key Internet infrastructure including the .com and .net top-level domains among others. VeriSign also offers intelligence-driven security services.

GoDaddy, Inc. provides a cloud-based web platform for small businesses, web design professionals and individuals. The Company's platform provides applications that help them connect to their customers, manage their businesses and get found online.

Naver Corp. provides Internet site with web portal services, such as search engine, online game and content development.  The Company also offers marketing service through text and banner advertisement.

CoStar Group Inc. provides building-specific information to the United States commercial real estate industry and related industries. The Company's database details office and industrial space. The database provides digitized photographs and floor plan images on individual commercial buildings in the company's markets.

Yandex NV operates an Internet website in Russia.  The Company's website offers an Internet search engine, news, shopping information, blogs, photographs and videos.  Yandex earns its revenues from online advertising.

SPS Commerce Inc provides on-demand supply chain management solutions through an online hosted software suite.  The Company uses pre-built integrations to eliminate on-premise software and support staff to shorten supply cycle times, optimize inventory levels and reduce costs.

Akamai Technologies, Inc. provides services for accelerating and improving the delivery of content and applications over the Internet; ranging from live and on-demand streaming video capabilities to conventional content on websites, to tools that help people transact business and reach out to new and existing customers.

NEXTDC Ltd. develops data centers. The Company develops and operates carrier and systems integrator neutral data centers in Australia. NEXTDC's customers will also be able to use the data centers as connectivity and content hubs.

AppFolio, Inc. provides cloud-based software solutions. The Company offers a cloud-based property management software that allows apartment and residential property managers to market, manage, and grow their business. AppFolio conducts business in the United States.

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent (700 HK)

[Tencent(700 HK, BUY, TP HK$432)Target Price Change]: More Sustained Growth Doesn’t Mean Slow Growth

Tencent beats revenue and profit estimates, driven by high-margin businesses. Video Accounts and overseas gaming expansion still in early stages....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Tencent (700 HK) – 3Q23 Earnings Beat on Strong Operating Leverage and Business Innovation

Tencent reported 3Q23 financial results on 15 Nov: total revenue grew 10% YoY to RMB154.6bn, inline with our/consensus estimate.

CMB International

Tencent: Domestic Gaming Returns to Growth

Tencent's domestic games returned to growth in 3Q2023 after a flat 2Q, social networks remained flat. Key highlight of the quarter was strong...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Tencent (700 HK): Raise Margin Estimates After 3Q23 Results, 30% Upside, Buy

Advertising, international game, and Fintech grew by two digits, but domestic entertainments were stagnant. The gross margins of all business lines...

Ming Lu

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND (To 10 Nov 23); High-Div SOEs AGAIN See Outflows, Tencent and ETFs Big Buys

In last week's SOUTHBOUND flows, high dividend SOEs such as China Mobile and CNOOC again saw net selling while Tencent and three major listed ETFs...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Tencent(700 HK, BUY, TP HK$432)Target Price Change]: More Sustained Growth Doesn’t Mean Slow Growth

​Tencent beats revenue and profit estimates, driven by high-margin businesses. Video Accounts and overseas gaming expansion still in early stages....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Tencent (700 HK) – 3Q23 Earnings Beat on Strong Operating Leverage and Business Innovation

Tencent reported 3Q23 financial results on 15 Nov: total revenue grew 10% YoY to RMB154.6bn, inline with our/consensus estimate.

CMB International

Tencent: Domestic Gaming Returns to Growth

​Tencent's domestic games returned to growth in 3Q2023 after a flat 2Q, social networks remained flat. Key highlight of the quarter was strong...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Tencent (700 HK): Raise Margin Estimates After 3Q23 Results, 30% Upside, Buy

Advertising, international game, and Fintech grew by two digits, but domestic entertainments were stagnant. The gross margins of all business lines...

Ming Lu

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND (To 10 Nov 23); High-Div SOEs AGAIN See Outflows, Tencent and ETFs Big Buys

In last week's SOUTHBOUND flows, high dividend SOEs such as China Mobile and CNOOC again saw net selling while Tencent and three major listed ETFs...

Travis Lundy

Tencent beats revenue and profit estimates, driven by high-margin businesses. Video Accounts and overseas gaming expansion still in early stages....

Tencent's domestic games returned to growth in 3Q2023 after a flat 2Q, social networks remained flat. Key highlight of the quarter was strong...