Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> has performed strongly this year, gaining 41% YTD, including 5.5% last week around its earnings release.</li>
<li>
Volatility Skew: A rare setup shows calls trading rich versus puts, creating favorable conditions for protective collar strategies.</li>
<li>
Actionable Trade Ideas: Three variations of a protective collar — with charts, pricing, and Greeks — illustrate how to position in the current market.</li>
</ul>



Context:Tencent (700 HK) has performed strongly this year, gaining 41% YTD, including 5.5% last week around its earnings release.

Volatility Skew: A rare setup shows calls trading rich versus puts, creating favorable conditions for protective collar strategies.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Three variations of a protective collar — with charts, pricing, and Greeks — illustrate how to position in the current market.


Tencent (700 HK): Positioning After 41% YTD Rally with Collar Strategies

<ul>
<li>
Context:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> reported 2Q25 results last week, beating expectations and fueling a 5.5% move in the stock.</li>
<li>
Market Reaction: Shares rallied while front-end options saw a pronounced volatility crush, rotating the term structure back into contango.</li>
<li>
Why Read: This note unpacks Tencent’s price action and the evolving volatility setup.</li>
</ul>



Context:Tencent (700 HK) reported 2Q25 results last week, beating expectations and fueling a 5.5% move in the stock.

Market Reaction: Shares rallied while front-end options saw a pronounced volatility crush, rotating the term structure back into contango.

Why Read: This note unpacks Tencent’s price action and the evolving volatility setup.


Tencent (700 HK): Rally Before Results, Options Market Repricing After

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes over US$19+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying OK at just under +US$1bn/day. Significantly, there was huge net buying of ETFs.</li>
<li>Last week's reco <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-automobile-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11082:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)</a> was up 4.4% on the week, +3.1% from Monday's close to Friday. +3.9% gain on the H/A pair.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Pairs Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes over US$19+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying OK at just under +US$1bn/day. Significantly, there was huge net buying of ETFs.
Last week's reco Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) was up 4.4% on the week, +3.1% from Monday's close to Friday. +3.9% gain on the H/A pair.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Aug 2025); Big Swing Into ETFs Likely Means Swing to Tech This Wk

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Tencent announced 2Q25 financial results: total revenue/non-IFRS operating income grew by 15%/18% YoY to RMB184.5/69.2bn, 3%/4% ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimate, driven by solid growth across business lines.</li><li>Higher-margin games and marketing businesses continued to maintain strong momentum (+22% and 20% YoY respectively), driving quality growth and further GPM expansion (+3.6ppts YoY).</li><li>We lift our FY25-27E non-IFRS earnings forecast by 1-4% to factor in the stronger-than-expected games &amp; marketing revenue growth and continuous execution of quality growth strategy. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tencent announced 2Q25 financial results: total revenue/non-IFRS operating income grew by 15%/18% YoY to RMB184.5/69.2bn, 3%/4% ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimate, driven by solid growth across business lines.Higher-margin games and marketing businesses continued to maintain strong momentum (+22% and 20% YoY respectively), driving quality growth and further GPM expansion (+3.6ppts YoY).We lift our FY25-27E non-IFRS earnings forecast by 1-4% to factor in the stronger-than-expected games &amp; marketing revenue growth and continuous execution of quality growth strategy. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tencent (700 HK) - 2Q25 Results: Strong Games and Marketing Businesses...

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>In 2Q25, game revenue increased by 22% YoY and FinTech revenue growth reached two digits.</li>
<li>The operating margin improved to 34.5% in 2Q25 compared to 30.6% in 2Q24.</li>
<li>The 10-year P/E band suggests an upside of 22.5% and a target price of HK$718 for year end 2025.</li>
</ul>


In 2Q25, game revenue increased by 22% YoY and FinTech revenue growth reached two digits.
The operating margin improved to 34.5% in 2Q25 compared to 30.6% in 2Q24.
The 10-year P/E band suggests an upside of 22.5% and a target price of HK$718 for year end 2025.


Tencent (700 HK): 2Q25, Game Revenue Up by 22%, FinTech Back to 2 Digits

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

Tencent (700 HK): Positioning After 41% YTD Rally with Collar Strategies

Tencent’s strong YTD rally meets a rare volatility skew. This note explores three protective collar strategies with full payoff charts, pricing,...

Gaudenz Schneider

Tencent (700 HK): Rally Before Results, Options Market Repricing After

Tencent’s 2Q25 earnings beat driving a 5.5% stock increase and a volatility reset after the event, offering fresh insights into valuation and...

Gaudenz Schneider

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Aug 2025); Big Swing Into ETFs Likely Means Swing to Tech This Wk

SOUTHBOUND Connect volumes were quite large again this week at nearly $100bn USD. The big flows on the buy side were in ETFs suggesting allocation...

Travis Lundy

Tencent (700 HK) - 2Q25 Results: Strong Games and Marketing Businesses...

Tencent announced 2Q25 financial results: total revenue/non-IFRS operating income grew by 15%/18% YoY to RMB184.5/69.2bn, 3%/4% ahead of Bloomberg...

CMB International

Tencent (700 HK): 2Q25, Game Revenue Up by 22%, FinTech Back to 2 Digits

The difference suggests an upside of 22.5% and a target price of HK$718 for year end 2025. The operating margin improved to 34.5% in 2Q25 compared...

Ming Lu

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