Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 23rd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in ANZ, Telstra, and CSL.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 23rd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in ANZ, Telstra, and CSL.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 23rd): ANZ, Telstra, CSL

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Morrison &amp; Co will offer A$4.50 cash per share, a 42.9% premium to the unaffected price of A$3.15 (on 13 March).</li>
<li>We think that the Morrison offer is attractive in the context of historical multiples and share prices. At last close, the gross spread is 12.2%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a> flagged in January that it had received takeover approaches from more than one party. Consequently, the Morrison offer could force out other bidders. </li>
</ul>


Morrison &amp; Co will offer A$4.50 cash per share, a 42.9% premium to the unaffected price of A$3.15 (on 13 March).
We think that the Morrison offer is attractive in the context of historical multiples and share prices. At last close, the gross spread is 12.2%.

Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU) flagged in January that it had received takeover approaches from more than one party. Consequently, the Morrison offer could force out other bidders. 


Uniti’s A$4.50 Indicative Bid from Morrison & Co

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p>Vulcan Steel Limited (Vulcan), a pure-play value-added steel distributor and processor, raised around US$273m (A$371m) in its Australia and NZ IPO.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Vulcan operates as a link between steel producers and bulk traders, and end-users. It has a network of 29 operating sites, 16 in Australia and 13 in New Zealand, through which it services over 7,000 customers, as of Jun 21. </p>
</div>
<p>We covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vulcan-steel-limited-ipo-past-performance-looks-fine-but-margins-might-be-at-cyclical-highs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Vulcan Steel Limited IPO - Past Performance Looks Fine but Margins Might Be at Cyclical Highs</a>.</p>
<p>In this note, we will look at deal dynamics and provide a table for valuation at different share price levels.</p>


Vulcan Steel Limited (Vulcan), a pure-play value-added steel distributor and processor, raised around US$273m (A$371m) in its Australia and NZ IPO.


Vulcan operates as a link between steel producers and bulk traders, and end-users. It has a network of 29 operating sites, 16 in Australia and 13 in New Zealand, through which it services over 7,000 customers, as of Jun 21. 

We covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier note, Vulcan Steel Limited IPO - Past Performance Looks Fine but Margins Might Be at Cyclical Highs.
In this note, we will look at deal dynamics and provide a table for valuation at different share price levels.

Vulcan Steel Limited IPO Trading - Don't See a Reason for Paying a Premium

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Risk-on signals continue to pile up, which continues to support our constructive outlook. Building off of last week's report, growth Sectors such as Technology and Communications continue to improve and we recommend adding exposure (e.g., Bilibili BILI-US/9626-HK).</p>

Risk-on signals continue to pile up, which continues to support our constructive outlook. Building off of last week's report, growth Sectors such as Technology and Communications continue to improve and we recommend adding exposure (e.g., Bilibili BILI-US/9626-HK).

Global Equity Strategy: Growth Sectors Continue To Improve -- Add Exposure

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

<p>In this Smartkarma Original, we bring to you a quantitative approach for identifying Asian companies that are likely to raise/cut dividend. Applying this approach to a universe of 920+ companies listed across Asia helped us identify 150+ and 20+ companies, respectively, that have a high likelihood of raising/cutting dividends, over the next five years.</p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p><strong>What's Original?</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>We have two separate models, one for forecasting Dividend Raise and the other for Dividend Cut.</li>
<li>Our back test results are very encouraging with &gt;90% hit rate for our Dividend Raise model and 100% hit rate for our Dividend Cut model.</li>
<li>For our Dividend Raise model, we apply a combination of eight stringent parameters and use last 7Y historical data to find companies that have consistently performed strong, lending our model a high hit rate.</li>
<li>For our Dividend Cut model, we differentiate from other models by focusing on companies that have had high dividend payout ratio (&gt;50%) over last 3Y. This criterion helps us in identifying companies where there is limited scope for dividend growth through increase in dividend payouts. In our observation, such companies are most vulnerable to cut dividend when faced with weakening fundamentals or deteriorating balance sheet.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<h3>Insight Flow</h3>
<ul>
<li>Live Dashboard</li>
<li> Methodology
<ul>
<li>Philosophy</li>
<li>Dividend Raise Model</li>
<li>Dividend Cut Model</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Universe</li>
<li>Back Test Results
<ul>
<li>Dividend Raise Model</li>
<li>Dividend Cut Model</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Model Results
<ul>
<li>Companies with High Probability of Dividend Raise</li>
<li>Companies with High Probability of Dividend Cut</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Model Risks &amp; Limitations</li>
<li>Conclusion</li>
</ul>

In this Smartkarma Original, we bring to you a quantitative approach for identifying Asian companies that are likely to raise/cut dividend. Applying this approach to a universe of 920+ companies listed across Asia helped us identify 150+ and 20+ companies, respectively, that have a high likelihood of raising/cutting dividends, over the next five years.

What's Original?

We have two separate models, one for forecasting Dividend Raise and the other for Dividend Cut.
Our back test results are very encouraging with &gt;90% hit rate for our Dividend Raise model and 100% hit rate for our Dividend Cut model.
For our Dividend Raise model, we apply a combination of eight stringent parameters and use last 7Y historical data to find companies that have consistently performed strong, lending our model a high hit rate.
For our Dividend Cut model, we differentiate from other models by focusing on companies that have had high dividend payout ratio (&gt;50%) over last 3Y. This criterion helps us in identifying companies where there is limited scope for dividend growth through increase in dividend payouts. In our observation, such companies are most vulnerable to cut dividend when faced with weakening fundamentals or deteriorating balance sheet.


Insight Flow

Live Dashboard
 Methodology

Philosophy
Dividend Raise Model
Dividend Cut Model


Universe
Back Test Results

Dividend Raise Model
Dividend Cut Model


Model Results

Companies with High Probability of Dividend Raise
Companies with High Probability of Dividend Cut


Model Risks &amp; Limitations
Conclusion


Asia Dividend Forecasting | The Rise and Fall of Dividends Across Asian Companies

Australia

Telstra Corporation Limited is a full service domestic and international telecommunications provider for Australia.  The Company provides telephone exchange lines to homes and businesses, supplying local, long distance and international telephone calls and supplying mobile telecommunications services. Telstra also provides data, internet, on-line services and directory services.

Price Gauge
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Telstra Corp (TLS AU)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 23rd): ANZ, Telstra, CSL

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in ANZ, Telstra, and CSL Limited.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Uniti’s A$4.50 Indicative Bid from Morrison & Co

Morrison & Co will offer A$4.50, a 42.9% premium to the unaffected price. Other bidders may surface as Uniti flagged in January that it had...

Arun George

Vulcan Steel Limited IPO Trading - Don't See a Reason for Paying a Premium

Vulcan Steel Limited (Vulcan), a pure-play value-added steel distributor and processor, raised around US$273m (A$371m) in its Australia and NZ IPO.

Sumeet Singh

Global Equity Strategy: Growth Sectors Continue To Improve -- Add Exposure

Building off of last week's report, growth Sectors such as Technology and Communications continue to improve and we recommend adding exposure...

Vermilion Research

Asia Dividend Forecasting | The Rise and Fall of Dividends Across Asian Companies

Methodology Back Test Results Companied

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)