Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p><br/> In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update to our 2018 analysis of returns and volatility for unrated Chinese issuers. Since our first report, the number of such issuers has increased notably. At the same time, with the Lucror Chinese Industrial index having run since 1 January 2018, we can now better compare the unrated issuers' performance relative to peers.<br/><br/> The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. <br/></p>

  In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update to our 2018 analysis of returns and volatility for unrated Chinese issuers. Since our first report, the number of such issuers has increased notably. At the same time, with the Lucror Chinese Industrial index having run since 1 January 2018, we can now better compare the unrated issuers' performance relative to peers.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.  

Asia HY Monthly - Returns And Volatility For Unrated Chinese Issuers (2020) - Lucror Analytics

<p><br/> The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of October includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.<br/></p>

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of October includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - October 2020 - Lucror Analytics

<p><br/> In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we consider China’s new Three Red Lines leverage guidelines for developers, which have been rolled out on a limited basis. We also look at the context for the policy’s introduction and its implications on credit access for industry players at large. <br/><br/> The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. <br/></p>

  In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we consider China’s new Three Red Lines leverage guidelines for developers, which have been rolled out on a limited basis. We also look at the context for the policy’s introduction and its implications on credit access for industry players at large.    The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.  

Asia HY Monthly - China's Three Red Lines - Lucror Analytics

<p><br/> The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of September includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.<br/></p>

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of September includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - September 2020 - Lucror Analytics

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<div>
<p>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-watch-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19950:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Watch (398 HK)</a> ("OWH") was <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0831/2020083100161.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suspended</a> <em>"pursuant to the Codes on Takeovers and Mergers and Share Buy-backs</em>", the immediate takeaway was to conclude the company would be subject to a Privatization Offer. But in what is becoming increasingly more common, OWH has announced a <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0914/2020091400003.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">partial buyback</a> from the company - 14.55% of shares out or 83mn shares, at HK$3.00/share, a 53.85% premium to last close.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>This will cost the company HK$0.25bn (US$32mn). OWH had net cash on hand of ~HK$0.65bn as at Mar 2020.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Yeung Ming Biu &amp; concert parties hold 30.85% of shares out and will not tender. That leaves 69.15% of the register subject to the buyback, implying a minimum pro-ration of 21.04%.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Should the partial buyback complete (i.e. fully exercised) Yeung &amp; concert parties will hold 36.10% of shares out, before the exercise of any outstanding share options. That step-up in %-held oversteps Hong Kong's "creeper rule", and therefore Independent Shareholders are required, by way of a special resolution (75% vote), to approve a whitewash waiver such that Wong is not obligated to make a general offer for shares not held. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>As always, more below the fold. Plus<em><strong> Ye Olde Arb Grids</strong></em>.  </p>
</div>


After Oriental Watch (398 HK) ("OWH") was suspended "pursuant to the Codes on Takeovers and Mergers and Share Buy-backs", the immediate takeaway was to conclude the company would be subject to a Privatization Offer. But in what is becoming increasingly more common, OWH has announced a partial buyback from the company - 14.55% of shares out or 83mn shares, at HK$3.00/share, a 53.85% premium to last close.


This will cost the company HK$0.25bn (US$32mn). OWH had net cash on hand of ~HK$0.65bn as at Mar 2020.


Yeung Ming Biu &amp; concert parties hold 30.85% of shares out and will not tender. That leaves 69.15% of the register subject to the buyback, implying a minimum pro-ration of 21.04%.


Should the partial buyback complete (i.e. fully exercised) Yeung &amp; concert parties will hold 36.10% of shares out, before the exercise of any outstanding share options. That step-up in %-held oversteps Hong Kong's "creeper rule", and therefore Independent Shareholders are required, by way of a special resolution (75% vote), to approve a whitewash waiver such that Wong is not obligated to make a general offer for shares not held. 


As always, more below the fold. Plus Ye Olde Arb Grids.  


Oriental Watch (398 HK): Conditional Partial Offer

Hong Kong

Television Broadcasts Limited broadcasts and produces television programs. The Company also licenses and distributes satellite and subscription television programs, and provides services such as animation, videotape rental, film studio leasing, and advertising.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Television Broadcasts (511 HK)

Asia HY Monthly - Returns And Volatility For Unrated Chinese Issuers (2020) - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update to our 2018 analysis of returns and volatility for unrated Chinese issuers. Since our...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Book - October 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of October includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - China's Three Red Lines - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we consider China’s new Three Red Lines leverage guidelines for developers, which have been rolled out on a...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Book - September 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of September includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report...

Lucror Analytics

Oriental Watch (398 HK): Conditional Partial Offer

After Oriental Watch (398 HK) was suspended "pursuant to the Codes on Takeovers and Mergers and Share Buy-backs", the immediate takeaway as the...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)