Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023, but we also acknowledge that a move to 4300-4325 is possible</li>
<li>Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives, particularly Health Care (XLV), Utilities (RYU, XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and precious metals miners (GDX)</li>
<li>10-Year and 30-Year Treasury yields testing short-term resistance while the US dollar (DXY) tests support at $101-101.50.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023, but we also acknowledge that a move to 4300-4325 is possible
Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives, particularly Health Care (XLV), Utilities (RYU, XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and precious metals miners (GDX)
10-Year and 30-Year Treasury yields testing short-term resistance while the US dollar (DXY) tests support at $101-101.50.


Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since mid-March, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (6 have widened, 12 tightened, 1 at same level).</li>
<li>Possible trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel, Handelsbanken, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
<li>Possible trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Sixt, VW, Danieli, Grifols, Atlas Copco.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-March, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (6 have widened, 12 tightened, 1 at same level).
Possible trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel, Handelsbanken, SSAB Svenska Stal.
Possible trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Sixt, VW, Danieli, Grifols, Atlas Copco.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April ‘23 Report

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

The Europe HY Trade Book for March 2023 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.

  The Europe HY Trade Book for March 2023 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. 

Europe HY Trade Book - March 2023 - Lucror Analytics

<ul>
<li>Since mid-February, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (9 have widened, 10 tightened, 0 at same level).</li>
<li>Trade preferences long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel, Handelsbanken, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
<li>Trade preferences long preferred / short ordinary shares: Sixt, VW, Danieli, MFE-Media for Europe, Grifols, Atlas Copco, Ericsson.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-February, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (9 have widened, 10 tightened, 0 at same level).
Trade preferences long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel, Handelsbanken, SSAB Svenska Stal.
Trade preferences long preferred / short ordinary shares: Sixt, VW, Danieli, MFE-Media for Europe, Grifols, Atlas Copco, Ericsson.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March ‘23 Report

In our European High Yield Investment Outlook, we first discuss our high-conviction trade recommendations. We then examine major geopolitical and macroeconomic drivers for the year, as well as commodity price trends. We also assess the interest rate exposure of companies in our coverage universe and elaborate on developments for European HY markets, including new issuances and defaults. Lastly, we cover sectoral developments and the key drivers for companies under our coverage. Overall, we are cautiously optimistic for 2023, and believe selected names still offer interesting opportunities, albeit spreads have recovered strongly this year.

  In our European High Yield Investment Outlook, we first discuss our high-conviction trade recommendations. We then examine major geopolitical and macroeconomic drivers for the year, as well as commodity price trends. We also assess the interest rate exposure of companies in our coverage universe and elaborate on developments for European HY markets, including new issuances and defaults. Lastly, we cover sectoral developments and the key drivers for companies under our coverage.   Overall, we are cautiously optimistic for 2023, and believe selected names still offer interesting opportunities, albeit spreads have recovered strongly this year.   

European High Yield Investment Outlook 2023 - Lucror Analytics

Italy

Telecom Italia S.p.A., through subsidiaries, offers fixed line and mobile telephone and data transmission services in Italy and abroad.  The Company offers local and long-distance telephone, satellite communications, Internet access, and teleconferencing services.

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Telecom Italia SPA (TIT IM)

Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm

The $SPX is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023. Considering limited upside, we continue to favor...

Vermilion Research

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April ‘23 Report

Since mid-March, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (6 have widened, 12 tightened, 1 at same level).

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Europe HY Trade Book - March 2023 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for March 2023 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with...

Lucror Analytics

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March ‘23 Report

Since mid-February, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (9 have widened, 10 tightened, 0 at same level).

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

European High Yield Investment Outlook 2023 - Lucror Analytics

In our European High Yield Investment Outlook, we first discuss our high-conviction trade recommendations. We then examine major geopolitical and...

Lucror Analytics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)