Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Commodities

<ul>
<li>The Ministry of Finance has decided to end the 13% export tax rebate on copper effective December 1st, 2024. Copper semi-producers rely on this rebate to remain profitable. </li>
<li>Copper semi-producers might rush to sell their inventory by 1st December when changes take effect, which may affect prices and distort differentials on the SHFE-LME. </li>
<li>
<span>As long-term bulls, we like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a>; under 100 USD/share, it is worth exploring.</span> We also believe a long LME short SHFE trade in the short-term could work.  </li>
</ul>


The Ministry of Finance has decided to end the 13% export tax rebate on copper effective December 1st, 2024. Copper semi-producers rely on this rebate to remain profitable. 
Copper semi-producers might rush to sell their inventory by 1st December when changes take effect, which may affect prices and distort differentials on the SHFE-LME. 

As long-term bulls, we like Southern Copper (SCCO US); under 100 USD/share, it is worth exploring. We also believe a long LME short SHFE trade in the short-term could work.  


Copper Tracker Nov 18th, 2024: Export Tax Rebate Cancellation on Copper Throws Market in A Tizzy

<ul>
<li>Copper prices were down slightly, WoW, by 0.3% YoY, as the effect of China's stimulus plan announcements waned, with investors viewing them more skeptically.</li>
<li>With 58% of the metal's demand arising from China, we expect the short-term malaise to be felt unless China makes punchier fiscal stimulus announcements soon. </li>
<li>We believe high-quality equities like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ivanhoe-mines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25338:1" rel="noopener">Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN)</a> will continue to be resilient and prefer exposure to copper in those names.</li>
</ul>


Copper prices were down slightly, WoW, by 0.3% YoY, as the effect of China's stimulus plan announcements waned, with investors viewing them more skeptically.
With 58% of the metal's demand arising from China, we expect the short-term malaise to be felt unless China makes punchier fiscal stimulus announcements soon. 
We believe high-quality equities like Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) will continue to be resilient and prefer exposure to copper in those names.


Copper Tracker Oct 21st, 2024: The China Malaise Sets In

<ul>
<li>With increasing market volatility, base metals continue their rocky weekly performance. Copper was up marginally maintaining a level over 9000 USD/ton.</li>
<li>Copper inventories declined at the exchanges, with ~428k tons combined at Comex, LME, and Shanghai, down almost 9% in the last two weeks.</li>
<li>Read our recent initiation on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>, contrasting it with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> titled <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/antofagasta-anto-ln-an-initiation-on-a-mid-sized-copper-miner" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:158671" rel="noopener">Antofagasta (ANTO LN): An Initiation on a Mid-Sized Copper Miner</a>. </li>
</ul>


With increasing market volatility, base metals continue their rocky weekly performance. Copper was up marginally maintaining a level over 9000 USD/ton.
Copper inventories declined at the exchanges, with ~428k tons combined at Comex, LME, and Shanghai, down almost 9% in the last two weeks.
Read our recent initiation on Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN), contrasting it with Southern Copper (SCCO US) titled Antofagasta (ANTO LN): An Initiation on a Mid-Sized Copper Miner. 


Copper Tracker Sep 23rd, 2024: Markets Volatile, Accumulate Good Copper Names On Weakness

<ul>
<li>Post our  initiations <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/southern-copper-in-a-league-of-its-own" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:139839" rel="noopener">Southern Copper: In a League of Its Own</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/teck-resources-teck-us-the-new-purish-copper-play-in-town" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:152051" rel="noopener">Teck Resources (TECK US): The New Purish Copper Play In Town</a>, we initiate on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> </li>
<li>The company provides an excellent channel check for Chile's mining environment. It accounts for 24% of global mined production in the copper market. </li>
<li>We provide a comparison between all the mining players' ROIC and which are the favorable names to play in the space. </li>
</ul>


Post our  initiations Southern Copper: In a League of Its Own and Teck Resources (TECK US): The New Purish Copper Play In Town, we initiate on Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) 
The company provides an excellent channel check for Chile's mining environment. It accounts for 24% of global mined production in the copper market. 
We provide a comparison between all the mining players' ROIC and which are the favorable names to play in the space. 


Antofagasta (ANTO LN): An Initiation on a Mid-Sized Copper Miner

<ul>
<li>Concerns about a further slowdown in the Chinese and US economies have led to the commodity complex selling off, but copper remains resilient at the 9000 USD/ton level.</li>
<li>Copper inventories on the exchanges have declined by over 6% in the last three weeks, although they remain elevated at over 470k tons. </li>
<li>We see pockets of value emerging in equities post the sell-off but would only trigger stocks like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ivanhoe-mines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25338:1" rel="noopener">Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN)</a> at lower levels. </li>
</ul>


Concerns about a further slowdown in the Chinese and US economies have led to the commodity complex selling off, but copper remains resilient at the 9000 USD/ton level.
Copper inventories on the exchanges have declined by over 6% in the last three weeks, although they remain elevated at over 470k tons. 
We see pockets of value emerging in equities post the sell-off but would only trigger stocks like Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) at lower levels. 


Copper: Holding Its Ground, Value Emerging In Equities

Canada

Teck Resources Ltd. is an integrated natural resource group with activities in mining, smelting, and refining.  The Company mines zinc, copper, molybdenum, gold, and metallurgical coal in the United States, Canada, Peru, and Chile. Teck also produces refined metals, specialized metal products, and other products.

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Teck Resources (TECK US)

Copper Tracker Nov 18th, 2024: Export Tax Rebate Cancellation on Copper Throws Market in A Tizzy

We analyze the impact of China's recent 13% export duty rebate cancellation on copper and the valuations of our favorite copper picks after the...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker Oct 21st, 2024: The China Malaise Sets In

We highlight our top picks in the copper space and news from the copper world as the investing world starts to get skeptical about China's stimulus...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker Sep 23rd, 2024: Markets Volatile, Accumulate Good Copper Names On Weakness

Copper has managed to sustain a level of over 9000 USD/ton. We analyze our top picks in the copper equity space as well as fundamental drivers of...

Sameer Taneja

Antofagasta (ANTO LN): An Initiation on a Mid-Sized Copper Miner

We compare and contrast ANTO LN (Antofagasta), a mid-size copper producer, with competitors using an ROCE analysis and the impacts of this metric...

Sameer Taneja

Copper: Holding Its Ground, Value Emerging In Equities

Copper equities are in the midst of a sell-off, given recessionary fears and weak China data, but copper is resilient. We highlight the stocks we...

Sameer Taneja

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