Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>The last decade has seen EMEA allocations in active GEM portfolios drift ever lower, with Asia becoming the dominant weight.  However, the recent rhetoric from China has seen Asian allocations fall from their peak and EMEA allocations rally from their lows.  Average weights in EMEA stocks stand at 13.72%, marginally overweight the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF by 0.24%, with just under half of the active managers in our analysis overweight. </p><ul>
<li>Over the course of the last decade, exposure to each EMEA sector has either fallen dramatically or at best stayed largely unchanged.  Those that have seen a big decline in investment are led by EMEA Industrials and Health Care, with over 40% of investors closing exposure.  </li>
<li>The largest sector exposure, EMEA Financials allocations sit towards the lower-end of their historical range.  Top holdings are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sberbank-of-russia-pjsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24142:1" rel="noopener">Sberbank Of Russia Pjsc (SBER LI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otp-bank-nyrt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28806:1" rel="noopener">OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP HB)</a> with 59% and 31% of funds invested respectively.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tcs-group-holding-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28148:1" rel="noopener">TCS Group Holding PLC (TCS LI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitec-bank-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27628:1" rel="noopener">Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CPI SJ)</a> saw ownership levels increase the most over the last 6-months.</li>
<li>Consumer Discretionary weights hit another all-time high this month of 1.46%, representing a 1.04% overweight versus the iShares MSCI EM ETF.  Underpinning the overweight are out-of-benchmark holdings in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a> and Fix Price Group, though in general stocks in the sector are not widely held.  Funds with big overweights are led by Comgest's GEM Promising Companies Fund (8.98%) and Van Eck's Emerging Markets Fund (7.21%).  </li>
<li>With active ownership declining throughout 2020, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gazprom-pjsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23749:1" rel="noopener">Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RX)</a> has finally been the recipient of some inflows.  Over the last 6-months, 2% of funds added Gazprom to their portfolios with a combined $217m in inflows.  Leading those were Fidelity (2.7%), Virtus Allianz (2.67%) and JP Morgan ($64m).</li>
</ul><p>The analysis looks in detail at all sectors in the EMEA region, together with some of the key stocks that underpin investment in the region.</p><p><em>Analysis taken from our GEM fund research, covering 250 active GEM strategies with combined AUM of $500bn</em></p>

The last decade has seen EMEA allocations in active GEM portfolios drift ever lower, with Asia becoming the dominant weight.  However, the recent rhetoric from China has seen Asian allocations fall from their peak and EMEA allocations rally from their lows.  Average weights in EMEA stocks stand at 13.72%, marginally overweight the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF by 0.24%, with just under half of the active managers in our analysis overweight. 
Over the course of the last decade, exposure to each EMEA sector has either fallen dramatically or at best stayed largely unchanged.  Those that have seen a big decline in investment are led by EMEA Industrials and Health Care, with over 40% of investors closing exposure.  
The largest sector exposure, EMEA Financials allocations sit towards the lower-end of their historical range.  Top holdings are Sberbank Of Russia Pjsc (SBER LI) and OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP HB) with 59% and 31% of funds invested respectively.  TCS Group Holding PLC (TCS LI) and Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CPI SJ) saw ownership levels increase the most over the last 6-months.
Consumer Discretionary weights hit another all-time high this month of 1.46%, representing a 1.04% overweight versus the iShares MSCI EM ETF.  Underpinning the overweight are out-of-benchmark holdings in Prosus (PRX NA) and Fix Price Group, though in general stocks in the sector are not widely held.  Funds with big overweights are led by Comgest's GEM Promising Companies Fund (8.98%) and Van Eck's Emerging Markets Fund (7.21%).  
With active ownership declining throughout 2020, Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RX) has finally been the recipient of some inflows.  Over the last 6-months, 2% of funds added Gazprom to their portfolios with a combined $217m in inflows.  Leading those were Fidelity (2.7%), Virtus Allianz (2.67%) and JP Morgan ($64m).
The analysis looks in detail at all sectors in the EMEA region, together with some of the key stocks that underpin investment in the region.Analysis taken from our GEM fund research, covering 250 active GEM strategies with combined AUM of $500bn

EMEA Sectors Deep-Dive.  Active Positioning in the EMEA Region

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p>Kakao Bank (KB), South Korea’s largest digital bank, raised up to US$2.2bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao will hold a 27.26% stake post listing. The share will begin to trade on 6th Aug 2021.</p></div><div><p>Even though Kakao started operations only in July 2017, by 2020 it had already garnered more than 1% market share of overall loans and deposits in South Korea. KB’s loans have grown by 138% over 2018 to 1Q21 to reach KRW21.6tn, while its deposits have grown by 197% over the same period to reach KRW24.2tn. </p></div><div><p>Over 2018-20, its total income (Net interest income plus net fee income) grew by 216%, while it went from booking a loss in 2018 to reporting a 26% profit margin by 2020. KB’s total income was up another 60% YoY in 1Q21, while PAT was up 153% YoY.</p></div><div><p>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-bank-ipo-riding-on-parent-s-network-but-boundaries-with-kakao-pay-remain-unclear" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Bank IPO - Riding on parents network but boundaries with Kakao Pay remain unclear</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-bank-ipo-pricey-as-it-should-be" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Bank IPO - Pricey as It Should Be </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-bank-ipo-lack-of-lock-up-and-msci-ftse-index-implications" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Bank IPO - Lack of Lock-Up and MSCI, FTSE Index Implications</a>.</p></div><div><p>In this note, we will talk about the deal's trading dynamics.</p></div>

Kakao Bank (KB), South Korea’s largest digital bank, raised up to US$2.2bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao will hold a 27.26% stake post listing. The share will begin to trade on 6th Aug 2021.Even though Kakao started operations only in July 2017, by 2020 it had already garnered more than 1% market share of overall loans and deposits in South Korea. KB’s loans have grown by 138% over 2018 to 1Q21 to reach KRW21.6tn, while its deposits have grown by 197% over the same period to reach KRW24.2tn. Over 2018-20, its total income (Net interest income plus net fee income) grew by 216%, while it went from booking a loss in 2018 to reporting a 26% profit margin by 2020. KB’s total income was up another 60% YoY in 1Q21, while PAT was up 153% YoY.We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes, Kakao Bank IPO - Riding on parents network but boundaries with Kakao Pay remain unclear, Kakao Bank IPO - Pricey as It Should Be and Kakao Bank IPO - Lack of Lock-Up and MSCI, FTSE Index Implications.In this note, we will talk about the deal's trading dynamics.

Kakao Bank IPO Trading - One for Instis, Closer Look at FTSE and MSCI Inclusion. Remain Buyers

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Kakao Bank is offering 65.45 million shares in the IPO at the IPO price of 33,000 won to 39,000 won per share. The IPO deal size range is from $1.9 billion to $2.3 billion. According to the bankers' valuation, the expected market cap range would be from 15.8 trillion won to 18.6 trillion won.</p>
<p>At the high end of the market cap range (18.6 trillion won), this would represent the 22nd largest market cap in KOSPI. At double the market cap of the high end of IPO range (37.2 trillion won), Kakao Bank would represent the 10th largest stock in KOSPI. </p>
</div><p>The book building for the institutional investors starts on 20 July 2021. This IPO is scheduled to start trading on 5 August 20201. KB Securites, Credit Susse ,and Citi Global Markets are the lead underwriters of this IPO. </p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col>
<col>
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 229pt;"><div style="text-align: start;"><div>Deal Specifics of the Kakao Bank IPO:</div></div></td>
<td style="width: 227pt;"> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Lead underwriters of the IPO: </td>
<td style="width: 227pt;">KB Securities, Credit Suisse, Citi Global Markets, Korea Investment &amp; Securities</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Expected IPO price per share: </td>
<td style="width: 227pt;">33,000 won (low)/39,000 won (high)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Number of Shares for IPO:</td>
<td style="width: 227pt;">65.45m shares (new shares)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>IPO base deal size: </td>
<td style="width: 227pt;">US$1.9bn (low);  US$2.3bn (high)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Expected common shares outstanding, fully diluted (post-IPO):  </td>
<td style="width: 227pt;">477.77m shares</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Expected market cap after IPO:</td>
<td style="width: 227pt;">15.8 trillion won (low)/18.6 trillion won (high)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Book open: </td>
<td style="text-align: left; width: 227pt;">20-Jul-21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Book closed:</td>
<td style="text-align: left; width: 227pt;">21-Jul-21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Listing date: </td>
<td style="text-align: left; width: 227pt;">5-Aug-21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Source: Company data</td>
<td> </td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


Kakao Bank is offering 65.45 million shares in the IPO at the IPO price of 33,000 won to 39,000 won per share. The IPO deal size range is from $1.9 billion to $2.3 billion. According to the bankers' valuation, the expected market cap range would be from 15.8 trillion won to 18.6 trillion won.
At the high end of the market cap range (18.6 trillion won), this would represent the 22nd largest market cap in KOSPI. At double the market cap of the high end of IPO range (37.2 trillion won), Kakao Bank would represent the 10th largest stock in KOSPI. 
The book building for the institutional investors starts on 20 July 2021. This IPO is scheduled to start trading on 5 August 20201. KB Securites, Credit Susse ,and Citi Global Markets are the lead underwriters of this IPO. 






Deal Specifics of the Kakao Bank IPO:
 


Lead underwriters of the IPO: 
KB Securities, Credit Suisse, Citi Global Markets, Korea Investment &amp; Securities


Expected IPO price per share: 
33,000 won (low)/39,000 won (high)


Number of Shares for IPO:
65.45m shares (new shares)


IPO base deal size: 
US$1.9bn (low);  US$2.3bn (high)


Expected common shares outstanding, fully diluted (post-IPO):  
477.77m shares


Expected market cap after IPO:
15.8 trillion won (low)/18.6 trillion won (high)


Book open: 
20-Jul-21


Book closed:
21-Jul-21


Listing date: 
5-Aug-21


Source: Company data
 




PowerGrid Infrastructure Inves / Equity Capital Markets

<p>POWERGRID Infrastructure Investment Trust (PGIT) aims to raise around US$1bn in its India IPO. PGIT is an investment trust setup to own transmission assets of its sponsor Power Grid Corporation of India Limited (PGCIL). PGCIL is a central public sector enterprise which has been listed since 2007. </p><p>PGIT will initially own five assets with a total network of 11 power transmission lines of approximately 3,698.59 ckm and three substations having 6,630 Megavolt amperes (MVA) of aggregate transformation capacity, as of Sep 2020, across five states in India. The total valuation of the assets was INR105bn (US$1.4bn) as of Sep 2020. </p><p>These assets were awarded to PGCIL on a  build-own-operate-maintain (BOOM) basis. Therefore, the assets are operated under a long 35 years service agreement with largely pre-fixed revenue based on availability. In that sense, they will provide stable returns. However, its revenue terms are structured in such a way that its yield will continue to decline, while its sponsor’s government ownership will mean that it's unlikely to diversify away from transmission assets with declining yield.</p><p>Our previous coverage of the IPO:</p><ul><li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/powergrid-invit-pre-ipo-always-going-to-be-tricky-with-a-declining-yield" target="_blank" rel="noopener">POWERGRID InvIT Pre-IPO - Always going to be tricky with a declining yield</a></p></li></ul>

POWERGRID Infrastructure Investment Trust (PGIT) aims to raise around US$1bn in its India IPO. PGIT is an investment trust setup to own transmission assets of its sponsor Power Grid Corporation of India Limited (PGCIL). PGCIL is a central public sector enterprise which has been listed since 2007. PGIT will initially own five assets with a total network of 11 power transmission lines of approximately 3,698.59 ckm and three substations having 6,630 Megavolt amperes (MVA) of aggregate transformation capacity, as of Sep 2020, across five states in India. The total valuation of the assets was INR105bn (US$1.4bn) as of Sep 2020. These assets were awarded to PGCIL on a  build-own-operate-maintain (BOOM) basis. Therefore, the assets are operated under a long 35 years service agreement with largely pre-fixed revenue based on availability. In that sense, they will provide stable returns. However, its revenue terms are structured in such a way that its yield will continue to decline, while its sponsor’s government ownership will mean that it's unlikely to diversify away from transmission assets with declining yield.Our previous coverage of the IPO:POWERGRID InvIT Pre-IPO - Always going to be tricky with a declining yield

POWERGRID InvIT IPO - Assets Are Fine, Declining Yield Is Not

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>We are beginning to see rotations back into risk-on areas of the market, a bullish sign for global equities. This only adds to our constructive outlook; we are bullish and we expect higher prices in the weeks and months ahead. </p>

We are beginning to see rotations back into risk-on areas of the market, a bullish sign for global equities. This only adds to our constructive outlook; we are bullish and we expect higher prices in the weeks and months ahead. 

Global Equity Strategy: Buy Energy & Financials; EM Improving

Russia

TCS Group Holding PLC, a digital provider of online financial and lifestyle services via its ecosystem. With no branches, the Group serves all its customers remotely via online channels and a cloud-based call centre.

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TCS Group Holding (TCS LI)

EMEA Sectors Deep-Dive. Active Positioning in the EMEA Region

The last decade has seen EMEA weights drift ever lower. We look in detail at all sectors in the EMEA region, together with some of the key stocks...

Steven Holden

Kakao Bank IPO Trading - One for Instis, Closer Look at FTSE and MSCI Inclusion. Remain Buyers

Kakao Bank, South Korea’s largest digital bank, raised up to US$2.2bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao will hold a 27.26% stake post listing. The...

Sumeet Singh

Kakao Bank IPO Preview

Kakao Bank is offering 65.45 million shares in the IPO at the IPO price of 33,000 won to 39,000 won per share. The expected market cap range would...

Douglas Kim

POWERGRID InvIT IPO - Assets Are Fine, Declining Yield Is Not

POWERGRID Infrastructure Investment Trust aims to raise around US$1bn in its India IPO. PGIT is an investment trust setup to own transmission...

Sumeet Singh

Global Equity Strategy: Buy Energy & Financials; EM Improving

We are seeing rotations back into risk-on areas of the market (Energy & Financials), a bullish sign for global equities. We are bullish and we...

Vermilion Research

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