Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>One of our routine channels is suggesting the possibility of some of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a> 's Scorpio-N bookings being fake.</li>
<li>This channel (an online auto forum) has been a trusted source of information followed by various industry veterans including the company's chairman.</li>
<li>While the rationalisation of fake bookings as a recent industry practice could solace some, the fallacy of the bookings narrative only gets stronger. </li>
</ul>


One of our routine channels is suggesting the possibility of some of Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN) 's Scorpio-N bookings being fake.
This channel (an online auto forum) has been a trusted source of information followed by various industry veterans including the company's chairman.
While the rationalisation of fake bookings as a recent industry practice could solace some, the fallacy of the bookings narrative only gets stronger. 


Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) | Scorpio-N Fake Bookings

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>You could imagine people covering their short in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> now. The Hang Seng sell flow on 4 January 2023 is insignificant. But there will be more overhang later. </li>
<li>If you buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> outright, you are buying a package of three potential future takeout targets.</li>
<li>It's not certain the scrip terms will continue as stated in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">DTAC</a> /<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True</a> merger, but if they change at all, that would almost certainly require a new shareholder meeting.</li>
</ul>


You could imagine people covering their short in Meituan (3690 HK) now. The Hang Seng sell flow on 4 January 2023 is insignificant. But there will be more overhang later. 
If you buy Link Administration (LNK AU) outright, you are buying a package of three potential future takeout targets.
It's not certain the scrip terms will continue as stated in the DTAC /True merger, but if they change at all, that would almost certainly require a new shareholder meeting.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Meituan, Link Admin/Pexa, DTAC/True, Medley

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50, 100, and 500 Indices in the run up to the March 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>In October 2022, NIFTY Indices Ltd initiated a market consultation recently on the "treatment of merger/demerger in Nifty equity indices" and its outcome has been confirmed now.</li>
<li>Separately, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd-a-dvr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:349:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN)</a> - previously ineligible for NIFTY 100 Inclusion for liquidity reasons - could become eligible for the March 2023 Rebalance event.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50, 100, and 500 Indices in the run up to the March 2023 Rebalance.
In October 2022, NIFTY Indices Ltd initiated a market consultation recently on the "treatment of merger/demerger in Nifty equity indices" and its outcome has been confirmed now.
Separately, Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN) - previously ineligible for NIFTY 100 Inclusion for liquidity reasons - could become eligible for the March 2023 Rebalance event.


NIFTY Quiddity Leaderboard Mar 23: Tata Motor DVR Could Be Included in NIFTY 100

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>As forecast, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> in December to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a>.</li>
<li>We estimate passive trackers will need to buy 2.3x ADV (7.2x delivery volume) on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT)</a> while selling 5x ADV (10.5x delivery volume) on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD)</a>. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> merger should see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> prior to the June rebalance.</li>
</ul>


As forecast, Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) will be added to the S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) in December to replace Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN).
We estimate passive trackers will need to buy 2.3x ADV (7.2x delivery volume) on Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT) while selling 5x ADV (10.5x delivery volume) on Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD). 
The HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) / HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) merger should see Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) added to the S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) prior to the June rebalance.


SENSEX Dec 22 Index Rebalance: Tata Motors (TTMT) To Replace Dr Reddy (DRRD)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> will eliminate its ADS program. This is another potentially juicy trade. </li>
<li>Canada's Brookfield, along with EIG look to take over <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, one of Australia's largest energy companies.</li>
<li>This <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> trade is fundamentally a bit short gamma on copper. If copper takes another dive, then it may no longer be interesting to be long. </li>
</ul>



Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) will eliminate its ADS program. This is another potentially juicy trade. 
Canada's Brookfield, along with EIG look to take over Origin Energy (ORG AU), one of Australia's largest energy companies.
This OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) trade is fundamentally a bit short gamma on copper. If copper takes another dive, then it may no longer be interesting to be long. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Tata Motors, Origin Energy, OZ Minerals, Toshiba

India

Tata Motors Limited manufactures cars and commercial automotive vehicles in India. The Company designs, manufactures and sells heavy commercial, medium commercial and small commercial vehicles including trucks, tankers, vans, buses, ambulances and minibuses. Tata also manufactures small cars and sports utility vehicles.

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Tata Motors ADR (TTM US)

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) | Scorpio-N Fake Bookings

One of our routine channels is suggesting the possibility of some of the Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) 's Scorpio-N bookings being fake.

Pranav Bhavsar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Meituan, Link Admin/Pexa, DTAC/True, Medley

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

NIFTY Quiddity Leaderboard Mar 23: Tata Motor DVR Could Be Included in NIFTY 100

For NIFTY 50, Pidilite Industries is the highest-ranked Potential ADD while Bharat Petroleum Corp is the highest-ranked Potential DEL. There could...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

SENSEX Dec 22 Index Rebalance: Tata Motors (TTMT) To Replace Dr Reddy (DRRD)

Tata Motors will replace Dr Reddy in the Sensex at the Dec rebal. Passives will need to buy 7.2x delivery vol on TTMT; sell 10.5x on DRRD. Adani...

Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: Tata Motors, Origin Energy, OZ Minerals, Toshiba

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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