CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Seven stocks remain, and seven stocks added to our portfolio</li>
<li>Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 177% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 27%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Seven stocks remain, and seven stocks added to our portfolio
Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 177% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 27%


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, Indonesia's second largest coal mining business <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6061:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ)</a> announced a buyback. This follows another buyback which ended in December 2022.</li>
<li>The Sep21-Dec22 buyback bought back 1bn shares, but did not spend all the money allocated to the buyback. This new one might buy back a similar quantity.</li>
<li>Looking at Real World Float is the right frame of reference. And the stock was at a recent low vs a Peer Basket. </li>
</ul>


Yesterday, Indonesia's second largest coal mining business Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) announced a buyback. This follows another buyback which ended in December 2022.
The Sep21-Dec22 buyback bought back 1bn shares, but did not spend all the money allocated to the buyback. This new one might buy back a similar quantity.
Looking at Real World Float is the right frame of reference. And the stock was at a recent low vs a Peer Basket. 


Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) Buyback - A Decent Chunk of 1 Year ADV

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>We continue to expect coal price to normalize and forecast Newcastle price at US$110/t in FY25, driven by growth in Indonesia’s export.</li><li>Amid the projected decline in coal prices, we forecast earnings for Indonesian coal miners to fall by 25-33% in FY25. </li><li>We cut the sector’s rating to Neutral; despite declining earnings, the sector continues to offer an attractive dividend yield (FY25 avg. 11%).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We continue to expect coal price to normalize and forecast Newcastle price at US$110/t in FY25, driven by growth in Indonesia’s export.Amid the projected decline in coal prices, we forecast earnings for Indonesian coal miners to fall by 25-33% in FY25. We cut the sector’s rating to Neutral; despite declining earnings, the sector continues to offer an attractive dividend yield (FY25 avg. 11%).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Coal: Steady Dividend Stream to Cushion Normalizing Coal Price...

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>China's coal inventory reached its peak in Sep-24 at 642.4mn tons, marking a robust demand of +22.7% YoY (Exhibit 01).</li><li>This was supported by import volume of +11.9% YoY (Indonesia: +2.1% YoY, accounting for 43.3% of total imports), amid a moderate growth in coal thermal output +1.0% YoY in 9M24.</li><li>This increase aligns with policies aimed at enhancing energy security and rising consumption trends that have been evident over the past two years.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China's coal inventory reached its peak in Sep-24 at 642.4mn tons, marking a robust demand of +22.7% YoY (Exhibit 01).This was supported by import volume of +11.9% YoY (Indonesia: +2.1% YoY, accounting for 43.3% of total imports), amid a moderate growth in coal thermal output +1.0% YoY in 9M24.This increase aligns with policies aimed at enhancing energy security and rising consumption trends that have been evident over the past two years.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Indonesia’s Jul24 coal production rose +10.7% mom/ +3.2% yoy to 72Mt, driving an improved 7M24 growth to 5.8% yoy (477Mt).</li><li>China and India’s 6M24 imports have remained resilient, while Indonesia’s high production cost continues to offer support for price.</li><li>We maintain OW rating on the sector but shift our preference to UNTR amid the ST supply risk from Indonesia.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indonesia’s Jul24 coal production rose +10.7% mom/ +3.2% yoy to 72Mt, driving an improved 7M24 growth to 5.8% yoy (477Mt).China and India’s 6M24 imports have remained resilient, while Indonesia’s high production cost continues to offer support for price.We maintain OW rating on the sector but shift our preference to UNTR amid the ST supply risk from Indonesia.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Coal Sector: Rising Indonesia Production, but Demand and Cost Curve Remain Supportive for Price

Indonesia

Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk PT provides coal mining activities. The Company offers services including general surveying, exploration, exploitation, production, transportation, and marketing of coal.

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Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ)

The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 42

We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) Buyback - A Decent Chunk of 1 Year ADV

Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) just announced another buyback. This should have some decent impact, and the stock is a bit cheap to similar-sized peers.

Travis Lundy

Coal: Steady Dividend Stream to Cushion Normalizing Coal Price...

We cut the sector’s rating to Neutral; despite declining earnings, the sector continues to offer an attractive dividend yield (FY25 avg. 11%).

BRI Danareksa Research

Coal Sectoral Update December 3, 2024

China's coal inventory reached its peak in Sep-24 at 642.4mn tons, marking a robust demand of +22.7% YoY. This was supported by import volume of...

MNC Sekuritas

Coal Sector: Rising Indonesia Production, but Demand and Cost Curve Remain Supportive for Price

Indonesia’s Jul24 coal production rose +10.7% mom/ +3.2% yoy to 72Mt, driving an improved 7M24 growth to 5.8% yoy (477Mt).

BRI Danareksa Research

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