Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> reported 1QFY03/2024 results today. Revenue increased 8.9% YoY to ¥1,058.6bn (vs consensus ¥989.8bn) while OP increased 12.0% YoY to ¥168.6bn (vs consensus ¥123.5bn).</li>
<li>The topline growth was driven by growth &amp; launch products which accounted for 40% of total revenues, and increased 16.2% YoY during the quarter at constant exchange rates.</li>
<li>Takeda is expecting 7-8 key regulatory decisions during the current fiscal year and we expect dengue vaccine and other new launches to help offset revenue loss from upcoming patent expiry.</li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) reported 1QFY03/2024 results today. Revenue increased 8.9% YoY to ¥1,058.6bn (vs consensus ¥989.8bn) while OP increased 12.0% YoY to ¥168.6bn (vs consensus ¥123.5bn).
The topline growth was driven by growth &amp; launch products which accounted for 40% of total revenues, and increased 16.2% YoY during the quarter at constant exchange rates.
Takeda is expecting 7-8 key regulatory decisions during the current fiscal year and we expect dengue vaccine and other new launches to help offset revenue loss from upcoming patent expiry.


Takeda: Earnings Beat Driven by Key Drugs and Dengue Vaccine Seeing Positive Momentum

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Takeda delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, with revenues below the analyst consensus.</li><li>Takeda also achieved strong financial performance, exceeding revenue and profit growth expectations.</li><li>We give Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited a 'Hold' rating with a revised target price.</li></ul>

Takeda delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, with revenues below the analyst consensus.Takeda also achieved strong financial performance, exceeding revenue and profit growth expectations.We give Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited a 'Hold' rating with a revised target price.

Takeda Pharmaceuticals: Does It Have A Sustainable Competitive Advantage? – Key Drivers

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> announced yesterday that the company has voluntarily withdrawn the US Biologic License Application for dengue vaccine candidate (QDENGA) citing issues over data collection.</li>
<li>As per Fierce Pharma, the decision to withdraw was due to additional data requested by the FDA which were not captured by Takeda’s Phase 3 TIDES trial.</li>
<li>Takeda’s share price dropped more than 2.0% during today’s trade, however, we would not be too concerned as efficacy and safety profiles of the trial has already been established.</li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) announced yesterday that the company has voluntarily withdrawn the US Biologic License Application for dengue vaccine candidate (QDENGA) citing issues over data collection.
As per Fierce Pharma, the decision to withdraw was due to additional data requested by the FDA which were not captured by Takeda’s Phase 3 TIDES trial.
Takeda’s share price dropped more than 2.0% during today’s trade, however, we would not be too concerned as efficacy and safety profiles of the trial has already been established.


Takeda: The Impact of Voluntary Withdrawal of Dengue Vaccine Application in the US Seems Minimal

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>In FY23, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiichi-sankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3014:1" rel="noopener">Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP)</a> recorded Enhertu product revenue growth of 218% YoY to ¥208B, 4% ahead of forecast, driven by indication expansion and strong market penetration in US.</li>
<li>For FY24, Enhertu product revenue is expected to increase 54% YoY to ¥320B, driven by higher utilization in HER2 positive and HER2 low breast cancer in US.</li>
<li>Daiichi Sankyo has two more drug candidates in late-stage trials for various cancers. Contribution of oncology to total revenue is expected to increase to 45% in FY26 from 20% now.</li>
</ul>


In FY23, Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) recorded Enhertu product revenue growth of 218% YoY to ¥208B, 4% ahead of forecast, driven by indication expansion and strong market penetration in US.
For FY24, Enhertu product revenue is expected to increase 54% YoY to ¥320B, driven by higher utilization in HER2 positive and HER2 low breast cancer in US.
Daiichi Sankyo has two more drug candidates in late-stage trials for various cancers. Contribution of oncology to total revenue is expected to increase to 45% in FY26 from 20% now.


Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Strong Beneficiary of Cancer Drug Enhertu; High Hope for Research Pipeline

<ul>
<li>HUTCHMED developed Fruquintinib has demonstrated positive results in a Phase III FRESCO-2 study which reduced the risk of death by 34% in patients with previously treated metastatic colorectal cancer.</li>
<li>In addition, Fruquintinib also has been validated and accepted for regulatory review (for marketing authorization) by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) last week.</li>
<li>In January 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with HUTCHMED to further develop and commercialise Fruquintinib outside of Mainland China, Macau and Hong Kong.</li>
</ul>


HUTCHMED developed Fruquintinib has demonstrated positive results in a Phase III FRESCO-2 study which reduced the risk of death by 34% in patients with previously treated metastatic colorectal cancer.
In addition, Fruquintinib also has been validated and accepted for regulatory review (for marketing authorization) by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) last week.
In January 2023, Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with HUTCHMED to further develop and commercialise Fruquintinib outside of Mainland China, Macau and Hong Kong.


Takeda: Clinical Development of HUTCHMED’s Fruquintinib Progressing Well

Japan

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd focuses on the Research & Development, Manufacturing, Sales and Marketing and Import/Export of Pharmaceutical Drugs. The Company focuses on the following core therapeutic areas: Cardiovascular & Metabolic, Oncology, Central Nervous System, Respiratory & Immunology, General Medicine (Gastrointestinal & Genitourinary) and Vaccine.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)

Takeda: Earnings Beat Driven by Key Drugs and Dengue Vaccine Seeing Positive Momentum

Takeda's 1QFY24 earnings beat consensus driven by growth & launch products. Newly launched dengue vaccine has started generating revenues with new...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Takeda Pharmaceuticals: Does It Have A Sustainable Competitive Advantage? – Key Drivers

Takeda delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, with revenues below the analyst consensus. Takeda also achieved strong financial...

Baptista Research

Takeda: The Impact of Voluntary Withdrawal of Dengue Vaccine Application in the US Seems Minimal

Takeda has voluntarily withdrawn US BLA application for dengue vaccine citing issues over data collection. Efficacy and safety profiles of the...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Strong Beneficiary of Cancer Drug Enhertu; High Hope for Research Pipeline

Enhertu has gained blockbuster status by recording $1B+ revenue in FY23. Enhertu plus other potential cancer drug launches should contribute 45%...

Tina Banerjee

Takeda: Clinical Development of HUTCHMED’s Fruquintinib Progressing Well

Fruquintinib has demonstrated positive results in a Phase III study while it has also been validated and accepted for regulatory review (MAA) by...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)