'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/172/203/original/2020-11-17_12-24-48.png?1605583510" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="172203"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>BRIGHTER, LATER</strong> - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of Japanese listed companies ended the quarter, higher than three months ago by ¥1.2 trillion. As a result, the market's forward multiple is unchanged at 31 times, despite a 7% rise in market capitalisation. Although this 'season' was the best in two years in terms of forecast profits, trailing earnings are still falling, by almost ¥3 trillion in the case of operating income. Much of the market optimism rests on a Japan experiencing a mild COVID winter and the impact of the incoming Biden administration's policy pronouncements on the US dollar. </p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/172/219/original/2020-11-17_13-33-54.png?1605587647" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="172219"></figure></section><p><strong>5.2% TTM OPERATING MARGINS</strong> - Aggregate Operating Income has declined by a third year-on-year on a 10% decline in revenues. The good news is that the pace of decline is slowing. Nevertheless, all of the Abe-era gains in earnings have now been unwound.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/172/230/original/2020-11-17_13-47-49.png?1605588488" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="172230"></figure><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/172/394/original/2020-11-18_07-24-55.png?1605651921" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="172394"></figure></section><p><strong>4.8% FORECAST OPERATING MARGINS</strong> - Operating margins are forecast to contract further over the next five months to 4.8%. Forecast revenues and operating income are both 3% lower than three months ago, the slowest rate of attrition in three quarters. The current market euphoria, which has taken total capitalisation to within 3% of the pre-COVID high is implying that the next 'print' of this data series, will be positive.    </p></section><section class="figure"></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/172/256/original/2020-11-17_14-22-29.png?1605590564" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="172256"></figure></section><p><strong>POSITIVE MOMENTUM</strong> - The sharp recovery in earnings momentum, which the market has been discounting is now materialising. Our Forecast/Revision Score has returned to March levels while the trailing Results Score has bottomed out well above the low of 2009. </p>
<section class="figure"><section class="figure"></section><div class="content-highlight"><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes. </p></div></section></section>

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics
BRIGHTER, LATER - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of Japanese listed companies ended the quarter, higher than three months ago by ¥1.2 trillion. As a result, the market's forward multiple is unchanged at 31 times, despite a 7% rise in market capitalisation. Although this 'season' was the best in two years in terms of forecast profits, trailing earnings are still falling, by almost ¥3 trillion in the case of operating income. Much of the market optimism rests on a Japan experiencing a mild COVID winter and the impact of the incoming Biden administration's policy pronouncements on the US dollar. 
5.2% TTM OPERATING MARGINS - Aggregate Operating Income has declined by a third year-on-year on a 10% decline in revenues. The good news is that the pace of decline is slowing. Nevertheless, all of the Abe-era gains in earnings have now been unwound.
4.8% FORECAST OPERATING MARGINS - Operating margins are forecast to contract further over the next five months to 4.8%. Forecast revenues and operating income are both 3% lower than three months ago, the slowest rate of attrition in three quarters. The current market euphoria, which has taken total capitalisation to within 3% of the pre-COVID high is implying that the next 'print' of this data series, will be positive.    POSITIVE MOMENTUM - The sharp recovery in earnings momentum, which the market has been discounting is now materialising. Our Forecast/Revision Score has returned to March levels while the trailing Results Score has bottomed out well above the low of 2009. 
In the DETAIL section below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Autumn 2020 Results & Revisions Review

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><p>Our best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fanuc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1" rel="noopener">Fanuc (6954 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15904:1" rel="noopener">Omron (6645 JP)</a>. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/334/original/2020-10-30_06-23-20.png?1604006632" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168334"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/335/original/2020-10-30_06-29-10.png?1604006963" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168335"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>156 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 51% Positive / 4% Neutral / 45% Negative</p></li>
<li><p>A<strong>verage Results Score Change:</strong> +0.2 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -5.7% Quarter YoY / -5.3% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.1ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 15%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>84 Annual • 35 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 45% Positive / 6% Neutral / 51% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 51% Positive / 3% Neutral / 46% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -0.0 points</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is Fanuc (6954 JP) and Omron (6645 JP). Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS156 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 51% Positive / 4% Neutral / 45% Negative
Average Results Score Change: +0.2 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -5.7% Quarter YoY / -5.3% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.1ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 15%
84 Annual • 35 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 45% Positive / 6% Neutral / 51% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 51% Positive / 3% Neutral / 46% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -0.0 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​29 - Fanuc, Takeda, Panasonic, Kyocera

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Takeda Pharmaceutical / Technical Analysis

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> demonstrates a bias to break below 3,580 pivot support into oversold territory ahead of staging a bounce cycle on the back of an RSI reading below 30. The macro bias remains bearish on bounces barring a breakout above trendline resistance.</p><p>Macro cycle remains down barring a break above 4,200, representing the price and trendline break point that would turn the current down trend.</p><p>Two trades are outlined. 1) A counter trend bounce play into short term weakness. 2) Short a bounce cycle in line with the current down trend.</p><p>Sustained action below 3,580 will weigh on the macro cycle.</p>

Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) demonstrates a bias to break below 3,580 pivot support into oversold territory ahead of staging a bounce cycle on the back of an RSI reading below 30. The macro bias remains bearish on bounces barring a breakout above trendline resistance.Macro cycle remains down barring a break above 4,200, representing the price and trendline break point that would turn the current down trend.Two trades are outlined. 1) A counter trend bounce play into short term weakness. 2) Short a bounce cycle in line with the current down trend.Sustained action below 3,580 will weigh on the macro cycle.

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/693/original/2020-09-14_09-50-37.png?1600044664" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158693"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables except as stated: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>EQUITY-DRIVEN</strong> - Japan's aggregate Shareholders' Equity has appreciated by 45% since 2014 - an annual rate of 5.5% and has been one of the key achievements of the 'Abe era'. For the five years before 2012, Shareholders Equity was unchanged, buffeted by the 2008/9 financial crisis and the 3/11.  Although the equity market has responded well to the change in reserves, Japan's PBR has remained within a range of 1.05 to 1.38 over the last decade and is unchanged compared to 2010. In prior post-bubble 'lost' decades, the average PBR was 1.8 times. In other markets, the rise of intangible assets has called the use of Book/Price as a metric and the S&amp;P 500 PBR is now almost three times that of the Japan aggregate having bottomed at 1.78 in March 2009.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/694/original/File%202020-09-14%2010%2007%2037.jpeg?1600045681" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158694"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: multpl.com</div><p><strong>BOOK VALUE PER SHARE </strong>- In this Insight, we shall look at Japan's larger-cap companies (current market value &gt;¥100 billion) through the 'lens' of book value per share. Our focus will be less on the 'winners' and 'losers' than on those companies that have seen the least change in 'BVPS' over the last seven years. Our share count excludes treasury shares which is to the benefit of companies such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (9432 JP)</a> which has seen a 20% reduction in Net Shares Outstanding, but only a 9% increase in Shareholders' Equity. A BVPS growth metric does, however, flatter serial issuers of equity with declining share prices, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sosei-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:770:1" rel="noopener">Sosei (4565 JP)</a>.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/696/original/2020-09-14_10-26-48.png?1600046818" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158696"></figure><p><strong>WINNERS</strong> - As many may ask and for the record, our 'winning' thirty companies contains many of Japan's best-performing businesses and 'priciest 'stocks, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monotaro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15441:1" rel="noopener">Monotaro (3064 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 (2413 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-payment-gateway-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1492:1" rel="noopener">GMO Payment Gateway (3769 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobe-bussan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4701:1" rel="noopener">Kobe Bussan (3038 JP)</a>. Some of the more surprising entries are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:602:1" rel="noopener">mixi (2121 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electric-power-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15457:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP)</a>.  As an equally-weighted portfolio, this group has outperformed by 30% over one year and by 11% over the last three months.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/697/original/2020-09-14_10-33-13.png?1600047204" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158697"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/698/original/2020-09-14_10-33-41.png?1600047231" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158698"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/701/original/2020-09-14_10-47-56.png?1600048087" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158701"></figure><p><strong>LOSERS</strong> - Our list of losers, who have collectively underperformed by 9% over one year, have many of Japan's weaker business models (shipping, oil &amp; gas, paper, copiers, gaming machines. The list also features some of the less-astute management 'teams' (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan (7201 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin (2503 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lixil-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:454:1" rel="noopener">Lixil (5938 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon (8267 JP)</a>).  Also among the latter are two medical-related business - the now remained <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h-u-group-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16580:1" rel="noopener">H.U. Group (4544 JP)</a> (formerly Miraca) and recent Bain PE target <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nichii-gakkan-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6790:1" rel="noopener">Nichii Gakkan (9792 JP)</a>.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/706/original/2020-09-14_10-57-45.png?1600048692" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158706"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/707/original/2020-09-14_10-59-22.png?1600048774" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158707"></figure><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we all review the large companies that have seen the least change in BVPS over the last seven years and those with the lowest BVPS volatility over the same period. Our lists contain quite a few surprises.</p>

Source for all charts &amp; tables except as stated: Japan AnalyticsEQUITY-DRIVEN - Japan's aggregate Shareholders' Equity has appreciated by 45% since 2014 - an annual rate of 5.5% and has been one of the key achievements of the 'Abe era'. For the five years before 2012, Shareholders Equity was unchanged, buffeted by the 2008/9 financial crisis and the 3/11.  Although the equity market has responded well to the change in reserves, Japan's PBR has remained within a range of 1.05 to 1.38 over the last decade and is unchanged compared to 2010. In prior post-bubble 'lost' decades, the average PBR was 1.8 times. In other markets, the rise of intangible assets has called the use of Book/Price as a metric and the S&amp;P 500 PBR is now almost three times that of the Japan aggregate having bottomed at 1.78 in March 2009.Source: multpl.comBOOK VALUE PER SHARE - In this Insight, we shall look at Japan's larger-cap companies (current market value &gt;¥100 billion) through the 'lens' of book value per share. Our focus will be less on the 'winners' and 'losers' than on those companies that have seen the least change in 'BVPS' over the last seven years. Our share count excludes treasury shares which is to the benefit of companies such as NTT (9432 JP) which has seen a 20% reduction in Net Shares Outstanding, but only a 9% increase in Shareholders' Equity. A BVPS growth metric does, however, flatter serial issuers of equity with declining share prices, such as Sosei (4565 JP).WINNERS - As many may ask and for the record, our 'winning' thirty companies contains many of Japan's best-performing businesses and 'priciest 'stocks, such as Monotaro (3064 JP), M3 (2413 JP), GMO Payment Gateway (3769 JP), and Kobe Bussan (3038 JP). Some of the more surprising entries are mixi (2121 JP) and Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP).  As an equally-weighted portfolio, this group has outperformed by 30% over one year and by 11% over the last three months.LOSERS - Our list of losers, who have collectively underperformed by 9% over one year, have many of Japan's weaker business models (shipping, oil &amp; gas, paper, copiers, gaming machines. The list also features some of the less-astute management 'teams' (Toshiba (6502 JP), Nissan (7201 JP), Kirin (2503 JP), Lixil (5938 JP), and Aeon (8267 JP)).  Also among the latter are two medical-related business - the now remained H.U. Group (4544 JP) (formerly Miraca) and recent Bain PE target Nichii Gakkan (9792 JP).In the DETAIL section below, we all review the large companies that have seen the least change in BVPS over the last seven years and those with the lowest BVPS volatility over the same period. Our lists contain quite a few surprises.

🇯🇵 Japan • Every Shareholder Left Behind - The Book Value Per Share Metric

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

<p>On 21 May, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>  <a href="https://group.softbank/en/news/press/20200521" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a sale of approximately 240 million shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> - roughly 5.0% of shares outstanding - at a price of ¥1,306.5-1,320/share (a discount of 4.0-5.0% to the close that day of ¥1,375). It lowered the consolidated holding of Softbank Corp from 67.1% to 62.1% and was not unexpected given the fact that Softbank Group had previously <a href="https://group.softbank/en/news/press/20200323" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a "JPY 4.5 trillion (USD 41 billion) Program to Repurchase Shares and Reduce Debt" on 23 March. This would lose Softbank Group the <em>super</em>-majority but that had to be expected eventually. </p>
<p>The block sale announced 21 May had been <em>preceded</em> by an announcement at the earnings results a day before that Softbank Group had sold $11.5bn of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> shares and was followed a month later by the <a href="https://group.softbank/en/news/press/20200624" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> of a sale of US$20bn of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-mobile-us-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:922:1" rel="noopener">T Mobile Us Inc (TMUS US)</a> which got them to ¥3.7trln of assets sold and cash raised. The Softbank Group <a href="https://group.softbank/system/files/pdf/ir/presentations/2020/investor-presentation_q1fy2020_01_en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Q1 Investor Presentation</a> from 12 August showed that a slightly larger amount had been raised because of better execution on the forward sale of Alibaba shares, but it should be noted that had other costs associated. Other gains were made by selling other small positions and the write-back of previously-unrecognized NOL tax-loss carry-forwards at SBG due to the sale of Softbank Corp shares.</p>
<p>HUGE progress had been made, and the hindrance to Softbank's plans at this point are mostly market liquidity for their own shares. </p>
<h2>The NEW News</h2>
<p>Today (28 August) after the close, Softbank Group <a href="https://group.softbank/system/files/news/press/2020/20200828/pdf/20200828_en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a selldown of up to 1.028bn shares (the sale of 927.49mm shares is underwritten, and there are another 100.5mm shares in the greenshoe) of Softbank Corp, which would take its stake from 61.97% (62.47% including Treasury Shares) to 40.32% (40.64% incl Treasury shares immediately, 41.34% if the Softbank Corp buyback is executed), whereupon Softbank Group would hold its remaining position for the "medium-to-long-term."</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/155/595/original/Screenshot%202020-08-28%20at%205.28.04%20PM.png?1598606901" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="155595"></figure>
<p>Assuming the greenshoe gets done and the trade gets done at a 5% discount to the close (¥1431.5), it is a ¥1.4trln deal for 21.65% of the company. The fact that this has been mostly underwritten suggests brokers are confident the existing very high dividend yield will be attractive. </p>
<p>It is a sale targeted 75% to domestic investors and 25% to international investors.  Given the sale would lift minority-held shares out by 56.9% and likely lifts Real World Float by more than 80%, this is a deal which will be more SOLD than BOUGHT. </p>
<p>To partially mitigate the impact of the supply, Softbank Corp today <a href="https://www.softbank.jp/en/corp/set/data/news/press/sbkk/2020/20200828_01/pdf/20200828_01.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a buyback program to buy back up to 80 million shares for up to ¥100bn to run from 1 October 2020 through 31 March 2021. Softbank Group will continue to treat Softbank Corp as a consolidated subsidiary. </p>
<p>This has potential repercussions on the sector dynamics near-term, the float, index supply/demand, etc. Much more detail below.</p>

On 21 May, Softbank Group (9984 JP)  announced a sale of approximately 240 million shares of Softbank Corp (9434 JP) - roughly 5.0% of shares outstanding - at a price of ¥1,306.5-1,320/share (a discount of 4.0-5.0% to the close that day of ¥1,375). It lowered the consolidated holding of Softbank Corp from 67.1% to 62.1% and was not unexpected given the fact that Softbank Group had previously announced a "JPY 4.5 trillion (USD 41 billion) Program to Repurchase Shares and Reduce Debt" on 23 March. This would lose Softbank Group the super-majority but that had to be expected eventually. 
The block sale announced 21 May had been preceded by an announcement at the earnings results a day before that Softbank Group had sold $11.5bn of Alibaba Group (BABA US) shares and was followed a month later by the announcement of a sale of US$20bn of T Mobile Us Inc (TMUS US) which got them to ¥3.7trln of assets sold and cash raised. The Softbank Group Q1 Investor Presentation from 12 August showed that a slightly larger amount had been raised because of better execution on the forward sale of Alibaba shares, but it should be noted that had other costs associated. Other gains were made by selling other small positions and the write-back of previously-unrecognized NOL tax-loss carry-forwards at SBG due to the sale of Softbank Corp shares.
HUGE progress had been made, and the hindrance to Softbank's plans at this point are mostly market liquidity for their own shares. 
The NEW News
Today (28 August) after the close, Softbank Group announced a selldown of up to 1.028bn shares (the sale of 927.49mm shares is underwritten, and there are another 100.5mm shares in the greenshoe) of Softbank Corp, which would take its stake from 61.97% (62.47% including Treasury Shares) to 40.32% (40.64% incl Treasury shares immediately, 41.34% if the Softbank Corp buyback is executed), whereupon Softbank Group would hold its remaining position for the "medium-to-long-term."

Assuming the greenshoe gets done and the trade gets done at a 5% discount to the close (¥1431.5), it is a ¥1.4trln deal for 21.65% of the company. The fact that this has been mostly underwritten suggests brokers are confident the existing very high dividend yield will be attractive. 
It is a sale targeted 75% to domestic investors and 25% to international investors.  Given the sale would lift minority-held shares out by 56.9% and likely lifts Real World Float by more than 80%, this is a deal which will be more SOLD than BOUGHT. 
To partially mitigate the impact of the supply, Softbank Corp today announced a buyback program to buy back up to 80 million shares for up to ¥100bn to run from 1 October 2020 through 31 March 2021. Softbank Group will continue to treat Softbank Corp as a consolidated subsidiary. 
This has potential repercussions on the sector dynamics near-term, the float, index supply/demand, etc. Much more detail below.

Softbank Corp (9434) BIGGER Block Offering

Japan

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd focuses on the Research & Development, Manufacturing, Sales and Marketing and Import/Export of Pharmaceutical Drugs. The Company focuses on the following core therapeutic areas: Cardiovascular & Metabolic, Oncology, Central Nervous System, Respiratory & Immunology, General Medicine (Gastrointestinal & Genitourinary) and Vaccine.

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Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Autumn 2020 Results & Revisions Review

BRIGHTER, LATER - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of Japanese listed companies ended the quarter, higher than three months ago by...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/29 - Fanuc, Takeda, Panasonic, Kyocera

• BEST & WORST • Our best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is Fanuc (6954 JP) and Omron (6645 JP). Source for all charts & tables:...

Campbell Gunn

Takeda Pharma Bear Press Below 3,580

Takeda Pharmaceutical demonstrates a bias to break below 3,580 pivot support into oversold territory setting up a bounce trade. The macro bias...

Thomas Schroeder

Softbank Corp (9434) BIGGER Block Offering

On 21 May, Softbank Group (9984 JP) announced a sale of approximately 240 million shares of Softbank Corp (9434 JP) - roughly 5.0% of shares...

Travis Lundy

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🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Autumn 2020 Results & Revisions Review

BRIGHTER, LATER - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of Japanese listed companies ended the quarter, higher than three months ago by...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​29 - Fanuc, Takeda, Panasonic, Kyocera

• BEST & WORST • Our best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is Fanuc (6954 JP) and Omron (6645 JP). Source for all charts & tables:...

Campbell Gunn

Takeda Pharma Bear Press Below 3,580

Takeda Pharmaceutical demonstrates a bias to break below 3,580 pivot support into oversold territory setting up a bounce trade. The macro bias...

Thomas Schroeder

🇯🇵 Japan • Every Shareholder Left Behind - The Book Value Per Share Metric

EQUITY-DRIVEN - Japans

Campbell Gunn

Softbank Corp (9434) BIGGER Block Offering

On 21 May, Softbank Group (9984 JP) announced a sale of approximately 240 million shares of Softbank Corp (9434 JP) - roughly 5.0% of shares...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/29 - Fanuc, Takeda, Panasonic, Kyocera