Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> received CRL from the FDA for TAK-721, through which FDA declined to approve the drug in its current form and asked for additional clinical study.</li>
<li>Takeda aimed for four potential approvals in FY22. Thus far, the company has received only two approvals. R&amp;D expenditure for FY22 is guided at ¥522 billion, up 15% y/y.</li>
<li>Next big catalyst for the company is the potential approval of its Dengue vaccine candidate, TAK-003, which has peak revenue opportunity of $1.6 billion.</li>
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Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) received CRL from the FDA for TAK-721, through which FDA declined to approve the drug in its current form and asked for additional clinical study.
Takeda aimed for four potential approvals in FY22. Thus far, the company has received only two approvals. R&amp;D expenditure for FY22 is guided at ¥522 billion, up 15% y/y.
Next big catalyst for the company is the potential approval of its Dengue vaccine candidate, TAK-003, which has peak revenue opportunity of $1.6 billion.


Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): Bearish Tone Continues Despite New Drug Approvals

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hk-inno-n-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33522:1" rel="noopener">HK inno.N (INNO KS)</a>'s new digestive disease drug K-CAB is the only drug of its class available in Korean market and has superior efficacy than the current standard of care. </li>
<li>K-CAB has already become the no. 1 drug in Korean digestive treatment market. HK inno plans to further strengthen its position by expanding global presence and increasing indication approvals.</li>
<li>From this year, HK inno has started distributing Merck’s seven vaccines, including its largest selling HPV vaccine 'Gardasil' in Korea. The company also has a rich pipeline of innovative drugs.</li>
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HK inno.N (INNO KS)'s new digestive disease drug K-CAB is the only drug of its class available in Korean market and has superior efficacy than the current standard of care. 
K-CAB has already become the no. 1 drug in Korean digestive treatment market. HK inno plans to further strengthen its position by expanding global presence and increasing indication approvals.
From this year, HK inno has started distributing Merck’s seven vaccines, including its largest selling HPV vaccine 'Gardasil' in Korea. The company also has a rich pipeline of innovative drugs.


HK Inno.N (INNO KS): On a Solid Growth Path with Blockbuster New Drug K-CAB

Ilyang Pharmaceutical Co., / Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ilyang-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2789:1" rel="noopener">Ilyang Pharmaceutical Co., (007570 KS)</a> shares touched new high of KRW 84,300 in December 2020 after its self-developed innovative drug Supect received approval for clinical trial for potential label expansion. However, Supect failed to prove efficacy in another clinical trial for COVID-19 in March 2021 and since then shares are declining. Ilyang shares are now trading near 52-week low.</li>
<li>Ilyang’s flagship drug Noltec is the leading anti-ulcer drug in Korea due to its superior efficacy and convenience of administration. Noltec is further expected to gain market share driven by its label expansion. </li>
<li>While Noltec has been enjoying steady revenue growth since its launch in 2009, Ilyang’s aspiration to become a leading global pharmaceutical company is dependent on the long-term commercialization success of its leukemia drug Supect and its label expansion potential.</li>
<li>Last week’s FDA approval of a new class of leukemia drug from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novartis-ag-8261b5d2-53ba-409e-8628-86d59cd6f853" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27907:1" rel="noopener">Novartis AG (NOVN SW)</a> has further increased competition in the already crowded leukemia space. This insight has mainly analyzed concerns over the commercialization of Supect amidst this competitive backdrop to find whether Ilyang can be a good bargain hunting idea for investors.  </li>
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Ilyang Pharmaceutical Co., (007570 KS) shares touched new high of KRW 84,300 in December 2020 after its self-developed innovative drug Supect received approval for clinical trial for potential label expansion. However, Supect failed to prove efficacy in another clinical trial for COVID-19 in March 2021 and since then shares are declining. Ilyang shares are now trading near 52-week low.
Ilyang’s flagship drug Noltec is the leading anti-ulcer drug in Korea due to its superior efficacy and convenience of administration. Noltec is further expected to gain market share driven by its label expansion. 
While Noltec has been enjoying steady revenue growth since its launch in 2009, Ilyang’s aspiration to become a leading global pharmaceutical company is dependent on the long-term commercialization success of its leukemia drug Supect and its label expansion potential.
Last week’s FDA approval of a new class of leukemia drug from Novartis AG (NOVN SW) has further increased competition in the already crowded leukemia space. This insight has mainly analyzed concerns over the commercialization of Supect amidst this competitive backdrop to find whether Ilyang can be a good bargain hunting idea for investors.  


Ilyang Pharmaceutical (007570 KS): Leukemia Drug Commercialization Concerns Still Persist

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

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Our Q3-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market-cap-weighted average price return of 2% and a simple average decline of 0.2%.</li>
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Out of the 34 stocks that appeared in our Q3-2021 screen, 15 stocks saw an average share price decline of 11.5%, whilst 19 stocks appreciated on average by 14%. The two biggest declining stock  were down 25% and 19% respectively.</li>
<li>Our Q4 2021 screen, with 38 names (up from 34 seen in Q3 and Q2 2021) delivers an interesting composition this quarter, </li>
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As in the previous few quarters, we anticipate the possibility of a risk of deteriorating credit metrics during the next few quarters: Q4 2021’s Altman Z score rests at 1.23, which is just up on Q3 2021’s level of 1.19.</li>
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Our Q3-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market-cap-weighted average price return of 2% and a simple average decline of 0.2%.

Out of the 34 stocks that appeared in our Q3-2021 screen, 15 stocks saw an average share price decline of 11.5%, whilst 19 stocks appreciated on average by 14%. The two biggest declining stock  were down 25% and 19% respectively.
Our Q4 2021 screen, with 38 names (up from 34 seen in Q3 and Q2 2021) delivers an interesting composition this quarter, 

As in the previous few quarters, we anticipate the possibility of a risk of deteriorating credit metrics during the next few quarters: Q4 2021’s Altman Z score rests at 1.23, which is just up on Q3 2021’s level of 1.19.


Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

Takeda’s stock plunged 12% in last one year to trade near its 52-week low. On October 6, the company halted two phase 2 clinical trials of TAK-994 after safety signal emerged in the trials. Although it is still not clear whether TAK-994 will be discontinued, Takeda’s share price declined ~11% following the news. With forthcoming patent expiry of some key drugs, this setback on a heavyweight neuroscience pipeline leads to a jittery outlook for the company, at least in near-term. TAK-994 has the potential to become a blockbuster drug for the company, if approved. Takeda’s top selling gastroenterology drug Entyvio (2020 revenue ¥429 billion) is patent protected through May 2026, while its neuroscience drug Vyvanse’s (2020 revenue ¥272 billion) patent will expire in February 2023 in the U.S. Both the drugs report mid to high-teen percentage growth in revenue. The current pipeline lacks multiple late-stage candidates, which are likely to compensate for the patent cliff to be faced by Takeda.

Takeda’s stock plunged 12% in last one year to trade near its 52-week low. On October 6, the company halted two phase 2 clinical trials of TAK-994 after safety signal emerged in the trials. Although it is still not clear whether TAK-994 will be discontinued, Takeda’s share price declined ~11% following the news. With forthcoming patent expiry of some key drugs, this setback on a heavyweight neuroscience pipeline leads to a jittery outlook for the company, at least in near-term. TAK-994 has the potential to become a blockbuster drug for the company, if approved. Takeda’s top selling gastroenterology drug Entyvio (2020 revenue ¥429 billion) is patent protected through May 2026, while its neuroscience drug Vyvanse’s (2020 revenue ¥272 billion) patent will expire in February 2023 in the U.S. Both the drugs report mid to high-teen percentage growth in revenue. The current pipeline lacks multiple late-stage candidates, which are likely to compensate for the patent cliff to be faced by Takeda.    

Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): Recent Pipeline Blues Puts a Brake on Stock Recovery

Japan

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd focuses on the Research & Development, Manufacturing, Sales and Marketing and Import/Export of Pharmaceutical Drugs. The Company focuses on the following core therapeutic areas: Cardiovascular & Metabolic, Oncology, Central Nervous System, Respiratory & Immunology, General Medicine (Gastrointestinal & Genitourinary) and Vaccine.

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Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)