Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity research analyst having 15+ years of experience, with an interest on fundamentally strong global healthcare companies. I have been helping investors to find future winners in healthcare space to grow their wealth by focusing on the strength and potential of the business models of the companies. My initiating coverage reports and pitch help investors to know ‘what to buy’, ‘why to buy’, and ‘when to buy’. My clients always remain on top of the sector with the help of my timely and detailed notes on earnings or any news update. I also provide broader view on the entire healthcare sector through periodic thematic reports.

Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): Bearish Tone Continues Despite New Drug Approvals

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Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Takeda’s stock plunged 12% in last one year to trade near its 52-week low. On October 6, the company halted two phase 2 clinical trials of TAK-994 after safety signal emerged in the trials. Although it is still not clear whether TAK-994 will be discontinued, Takeda’s share price declined ~11% following the news. With forthcoming patent expiry of some key drugs, this setback on a heavyweight neuroscience pipeline leads to a jittery outlook for the company, at least in near-term. TAK-994 has the potential to become a blockbuster drug for the company, if approved. Takeda’s top selling gastroenterology drug Entyvio (2020 revenue ¥429 billion) is patent protected through May 2026, while its neuroscience drug Vyvanse’s (2020 revenue ¥272 billion) patent will expire in February 2023 in the U.S. Both the drugs report mid to high-teen percentage growth in revenue. The current pipeline lacks multiple late-stage candidates, which are likely to compensate for the patent cliff to be faced by Takeda.    </p>

Takeda’s stock plunged 12% in last one year to trade near its 52-week low. On October 6, the company halted two phase 2 clinical trials of TAK-994 after safety signal emerged in the trials. Although it is still not clear whether TAK-994 will be discontinued, Takeda’s share price declined ~11% following the news. With forthcoming patent expiry of some key drugs, this setback on a heavyweight neuroscience pipeline leads to a jittery outlook for the company, at least in near-term. TAK-994 has the potential to become a blockbuster drug for the company, if approved. Takeda’s top selling gastroenterology drug Entyvio (2020 revenue ¥429 billion) is patent protected through May 2026, while its neuroscience drug Vyvanse’s (2020 revenue ¥272 billion) patent will expire in February 2023 in the U.S. Both the drugs report mid to high-teen percentage growth in revenue. The current pipeline lacks multiple late-stage candidates, which are likely to compensate for the patent cliff to be faced by Takeda.    

Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): Recent Pipeline Blues Puts a Brake on Stock Recovery