Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> reported 2QFY03/2023 results last week. Reported revenue increased 18.6% YoY to JPY1.0trn (vs consensus JPY962bn) while OP increased 7.2% YoY to JPY104.4bn (vs consensus JPY119bn).</li>
<li>Growth in sales was driven by Takeda’s blockbuster drug Entyvio (+36.6% YoY), Takhzyro (+75.8%) and immunoglobulin products (HYQVIA in particular).</li>
<li>The company also has raised its peak sales estimate for Entyvio to US$7.5-9.0bn (from US$5.5-6.5bn) driven by further market growth and market share expansion.</li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) reported 2QFY03/2023 results last week. Reported revenue increased 18.6% YoY to JPY1.0trn (vs consensus JPY962bn) while OP increased 7.2% YoY to JPY104.4bn (vs consensus JPY119bn).
Growth in sales was driven by Takeda’s blockbuster drug Entyvio (+36.6% YoY), Takhzyro (+75.8%) and immunoglobulin products (HYQVIA in particular).
The company also has raised its peak sales estimate for Entyvio to US$7.5-9.0bn (from US$5.5-6.5bn) driven by further market growth and market share expansion.


Takeda: Thrilling Journey Ahead with a Dengue Vaccine Launch and New Approvals

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Japanese yen has been depreciating at a rate never seen before. Amid weakening domestic currency, Japan’s healthcare stocks have mostly outperformed their regional peers, due to their export-led growth.</li>
<li>Cash rich and fundamentally strong healthcare companies in Japan, with large international revenue exposure should be the key focus areas now.</li>
<li>Two of our top picks are sitting on double-digit gains, while the other two are facing temporary setbacks. Long-term fundamental story remains intact for all of them.   </li>
</ul>


The Japanese yen has been depreciating at a rate never seen before. Amid weakening domestic currency, Japan’s healthcare stocks have mostly outperformed their regional peers, due to their export-led growth.
Cash rich and fundamentally strong healthcare companies in Japan, with large international revenue exposure should be the key focus areas now.
Two of our top picks are sitting on double-digit gains, while the other two are facing temporary setbacks. Long-term fundamental story remains intact for all of them.   


APAC Healthcare Series (Part 3)- Focus Is on Japan; Top Picks Are Mostly in The Pink of Health

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a>  reported 1QFY03/23 results yesterday. Reported revenue grew 2.4% YoY to JPY972.5bn (vs consensus JPY929.6bn) while OP decreased 39.4% YoY to JPY150.5bn (vs consensus JPY173.1bn).</li>
<li>Decline in OP was due to one-time gain from the sale of Japan diabetes portfolio of JPY131.4bn in 1Q last year, however, excluding this, OP increased 28.4% YoY in 1QFY03/2023.</li>
<li>Takeda’s share price dropped 1.5% at the end of today’s trading as investor sentiment has changed post earnings as some of the company’s key drugs have started experiencing generic erosion.</li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)  reported 1QFY03/23 results yesterday. Reported revenue grew 2.4% YoY to JPY972.5bn (vs consensus JPY929.6bn) while OP decreased 39.4% YoY to JPY150.5bn (vs consensus JPY173.1bn).
Decline in OP was due to one-time gain from the sale of Japan diabetes portfolio of JPY131.4bn in 1Q last year, however, excluding this, OP increased 28.4% YoY in 1QFY03/2023.
Takeda’s share price dropped 1.5% at the end of today’s trading as investor sentiment has changed post earnings as some of the company’s key drugs have started experiencing generic erosion.


Takeda 1Q: Top Line Beat Consensus – Development Pipeline Continues to Progress

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otsuka-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12292:1" rel="noopener">Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP)</a> has raised revenue guidance for H1FY23 by 6%, due to continued strong performance of its four global brands, which contribute more than 35% of total revenue.</li>
<li>However, the company has cut operating and net profit guidance for H1FY23, mainly due to one-off charge related to elimination of unrealized gains on inventories caused by yen depreciation.</li>
<li>Otsuka received positive CHMP opinion for lupus nephritis drug, Lupkynis. This will pave the way for gaining marketing approval of the drug in Europe.</li>
</ul>



Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) has raised revenue guidance for H1FY23 by 6%, due to continued strong performance of its four global brands, which contribute more than 35% of total revenue.
However, the company has cut operating and net profit guidance for H1FY23, mainly due to one-off charge related to elimination of unrealized gains on inventories caused by yen depreciation.
Otsuka received positive CHMP opinion for lupus nephritis drug, Lupkynis. This will pave the way for gaining marketing approval of the drug in Europe.


Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Revenue Guidance Raise and New Products Line-Up Enhance Conviction

<ul>
<li>Comirnaty had had a significant positive impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pfizer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1131:1" rel="noopener">Pfizer Inc (PFE US)</a>’s revenue in 2021. 2022 will be no different. However, outlook for COVID-19 vaccine is uncertain beyond 2022.</li>
<li>Apart from the existing blockbuster fast-growing drugs, Pfizer has a rich late-stage pipeline. Its alopecia areata drug candidate, ritlecitinib has potential to become a blockbuster drug.  </li>
<li>Pfizer aims to add $25 billion revenue to its 2030 top-line expectations. Thus far, the company has announced two deals toward this ambition, entailing potential revenue addition of $7.5 billion.</li>
</ul>


Comirnaty had had a significant positive impact on Pfizer Inc (PFE US)’s revenue in 2021. 2022 will be no different. However, outlook for COVID-19 vaccine is uncertain beyond 2022.
Apart from the existing blockbuster fast-growing drugs, Pfizer has a rich late-stage pipeline. Its alopecia areata drug candidate, ritlecitinib has potential to become a blockbuster drug.  
Pfizer aims to add $25 billion revenue to its 2030 top-line expectations. Thus far, the company has announced two deals toward this ambition, entailing potential revenue addition of $7.5 billion.


Pfizer Inc (PFE US): What’s Lie Ahead of Comirnaty? Potential Blockbuster Drugs in Pipeline

Japan

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd focuses on the Research & Development, Manufacturing, Sales and Marketing and Import/Export of Pharmaceutical Drugs. The Company focuses on the following core therapeutic areas: Cardiovascular & Metabolic, Oncology, Central Nervous System, Respiratory & Immunology, General Medicine (Gastrointestinal & Genitourinary) and Vaccine.

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Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)

Takeda: Thrilling Journey Ahead with a Dengue Vaccine Launch and New Approvals

After more-than a decade research, Takeda is all-set to launch its dengue vaccine which will be the industry’s first immunisation against Dengue...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

APAC Healthcare Series (Part 3)- Focus Is on Japan; Top Picks Are Mostly in The Pink of Health

Two of our top picks in APAC healthcare sector are sitting on double-digit gains, while the other two are facing temporary setbacks. Long-term...

Tina Banerjee

Takeda 1Q: Top Line Beat Consensus – Development Pipeline Continues to Progress

Takeda's reported revenue for 1QFY03/23 grew 2.4% YoY and beat consensus by a huge 46% while OP fell below consensus. Takeda continues to push...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Revenue Guidance Raise and New Products Line-Up Enhance Conviction

Otsuka has raised H1FY23 revenue guidance. However, profits will be negatively impacted by one-off charges. Guidance raise and new product line-up...

Tina Banerjee

Pfizer Inc (PFE US): What’s Lie Ahead of Comirnaty? Potential Blockbuster Drugs in Pipeline

By leveraging on windfall gains from COVID portfolio, Pfizer is developing additional growth spots for future revenue growth. Its pipeline and...

Tina Banerjee

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