Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otsuka-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12292:1" rel="noopener">Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP)</a> started 2022 on a strong note, with 13% y/y revenue growth in Q1. Growth was driven by four global products, which contributed 36% of total revenue.</li>
<li>Otsuka has terminated its global license agreements with Akebia Therapeutics related to vadadustat for the treatment of renal anemia and recorded an impairment loss of ¥24 billion.</li>
<li>Despite the impairment losses related to vadadustat, Otsuka reiterated 2022 guidance and expects double-digit growth in operating and net profits.</li>
</ul>



Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) started 2022 on a strong note, with 13% y/y revenue growth in Q1. Growth was driven by four global products, which contributed 36% of total revenue.
Otsuka has terminated its global license agreements with Akebia Therapeutics related to vadadustat for the treatment of renal anemia and recorded an impairment loss of ¥24 billion.
Despite the impairment losses related to vadadustat, Otsuka reiterated 2022 guidance and expects double-digit growth in operating and net profits.


Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) 1Q22: Global Products Continued Double-Digit Revenue Growth

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> reported 4QFY03/2022 results yesterday. Reported revenue grew 13.4% YoY to JPY873.3bn (vs consensus JPY825.7bn) while the company reported operating losses of JPY1.7bn.</li>
<li>Revenue from Top 14 drugs grew 20.3% YoY, while revenue from top-seller Entyvio grew 15.0% YoY during the quarter. Excluding Entyvio, other top 13 drugs grew 23.3% during the period.</li>
<li>Takeda’s shares moved down 2.0% at the end of yesterday’s trading and down 3% during today’s trade as profit drop disappointed the market.</li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) reported 4QFY03/2022 results yesterday. Reported revenue grew 13.4% YoY to JPY873.3bn (vs consensus JPY825.7bn) while the company reported operating losses of JPY1.7bn.
Revenue from Top 14 drugs grew 20.3% YoY, while revenue from top-seller Entyvio grew 15.0% YoY during the quarter. Excluding Entyvio, other top 13 drugs grew 23.3% during the period.
Takeda’s shares moved down 2.0% at the end of yesterday’s trading and down 3% during today’s trade as profit drop disappointed the market.


Takeda 4QFY22: Top Line Expands and Pipeline Development Progresses Despite OP Drop

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hillevax-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35844:1" rel="noopener">HilleVax (HLVX US)</a>, a novel vaccine developer intends to raise $100 million through an IPO. Its lead program HIL-214, intended to prevent norovirus infection is in phase 2 clinical trial.</li>
<li>The number of shares to be offered and the price range are yet to be disclosed. Post listing, the company will trade under the ticker HLVX on the Nasdaq.</li>
<li>HIL-214’s large addressable market, with huge unmet need, HilleVax’s earlier fund-raising history, and Takeda’s backing are some of the positives of this new offering.  </li>
</ul>



HilleVax (HLVX US), a novel vaccine developer intends to raise $100 million through an IPO. Its lead program HIL-214, intended to prevent norovirus infection is in phase 2 clinical trial.
The number of shares to be offered and the price range are yet to be disclosed. Post listing, the company will trade under the ticker HLVX on the Nasdaq.
HIL-214’s large addressable market, with huge unmet need, HilleVax’s earlier fund-raising history, and Takeda’s backing are some of the positives of this new offering.  


HilleVax Pre-IPO: Lead Candidate Has Potential to Become First Approved Vaccine for Norovirus

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 7 April, the JPX announced the changes to the Free Float Weights (FFW) for the TOPIX Index. There are some big changes due to the updated FFW methodology.</li>
<li>From April to June, we see a one-way turnover of 2.87% and a one-way trade of ¥2,285bn. Some stocks have opposite way flows in different months.</li>
<li>Stocks with inflows outperformed stocks with outflows from Oct-Dec 2021 before giving up all the gains. These stocks have started to outperform and could continue outperforming over the next quarter.</li>
</ul>


On 7 April, the JPX announced the changes to the Free Float Weights (FFW) for the TOPIX Index. There are some big changes due to the updated FFW methodology.
From April to June, we see a one-way turnover of 2.87% and a one-way trade of ¥2,285bn. Some stocks have opposite way flows in different months.
Stocks with inflows outperformed stocks with outflows from Oct-Dec 2021 before giving up all the gains. These stocks have started to outperform and could continue outperforming over the next quarter.


TOPIX FFW Transition - Big Flows from April to June

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> has been aggressively expanding its rare disease portfolio following recent hiccups in its development pipeline through Tie-Ups with different gene therapy developers.</li>
<li>Rare diseases biz is the second largest business segment for Takeda generating about 17.1% of total revenues for the company.</li>
<li>Takeda’s share price started plunging after suspending a phase 2 study of TAK-994 in October 2021 and price started moving up since January and we think there is further upside.</li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) has been aggressively expanding its rare disease portfolio following recent hiccups in its development pipeline through Tie-Ups with different gene therapy developers.
Rare diseases biz is the second largest business segment for Takeda generating about 17.1% of total revenues for the company.
Takeda’s share price started plunging after suspending a phase 2 study of TAK-994 in October 2021 and price started moving up since January and we think there is further upside.


Takeda Strengthens Rare Disease Portfolio Through Tie-Ups with Gene Therapy Developers

Japan

Astellas Pharma Inc. is a pharmaceutical company committed to the therapeutic fields of Urology, Immunology including Transplantation and Infectious Diseases, Oncology, Neuroscience and DM Complications and Metabolic Diseases. With over 17,000 global employees, Astellas researches, develops, manufactures, and promotes its prescription drugs through subsidiaries in the US, Europe, and Asia

Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd is a pharmaceutical company. The Company manufactures, sells, imports and exports pharmaceuticals, clinical testing, and medical equipment for intractable diseases.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited is engaged in research and development, manufacturing, sales and marketing, and import and export of pharmaceutical drugs. The Company focuses on the core therapeutic areas of oncology, gastrointestinal, and central nervous system disease.

Daiichi Sankyo Co, Ltd is a holding company established through merger of Sankyo and Daiichi pharmaceutical. The Group manufactures pharmaceuticals for human/veterinary use and medical tools and equipment. It also researches and promotes products through related companies throughout the world. The Group also produces food, food additives, livestock feeds, and agrochemicals.

ONO PHARMACEUTICAL CO., LTD. manufactures and sells pharmaceuticals.  The Company mainly researches and develops prescription drugs.

Kyowa Hakko Kirin Co.,Ltd. develops, manufactures, and markets pharmaceuticals. The Company's products include a protein produced by genetic recombination technology, an anti-anemia agent that attaches new sugar chains through partial modification of the amino acid sequence of human erythropoietin (EPO), and a glycoprotein, human erythropoietin.

Shionogi & Company Ltd., is a pharmaceutical company. The Company develops prescription & over-the-counter drugs and diagnostics.

Eisai Co., Ltd. produces prescription drugs and medical equipment and sells mainly to sales agents and subsidiaries.  Through its subsidiary, Sanko Junyaku, the Company produces and sells diagnostic drugs.  Eisai also markets its products through related companies in the US, Europe, and Asia.  The Company also manufactures and sells foods, livestock feeds, chemical, and agrochemicals.

ROHTO PHARMACEUTICAL CO., LTD. manufactures and markets pharmaceuticals and cosmetics products.  The Company's products include eyewash, bath soaps, gastrointestinal medicine, and hand cream.  Rohto Pharmaceutical also has a license agreement with its subsidiary, Mentholatum (US) to sell their brand products.  The Company also manufactures contact lenses and health foods.

SANTEN PHARMACEUTICAL CO., LTD. produces and sells ophthalmic medicine.  The Company manufactures a variety of products including eye drops and ointments. Santen Pharmaceutical also imports lenses and tools and equipment used by optometrists and produces anti-rheumatic drugs.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited manufactures and markets pharmaceuticals for domestic and international distribution. The Company's pharmaceutical portfolio includes drugs in the areas of diabetes, cardiology, neurology, psychiatry and  gastroenterology.

Cipla Limited manufactures and sells pharmaceutical and personal care products. The Company offers active pharmaceutical ingredients, and formulations in therapeutic areas, such as allergy, analgesic, anti malarial, anti-infectives, cardiology, dermatology and cosmeceuticals, diabetology, gastroenterology, steroids, iron chelators, nutritional products.

Cadila Healthcare Ltd. manufactures, and markets healthcare solutions ranging from formulations, active pharmaceutical ingredients, vaccines, diagnostics, health and dietetic foods, animal healthcare to cosmeceuticals.  The Company's products are available in tablets, capsules, injections, liquids, dry syrups, powders, granules, and ointments.

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and markets a variety of medicines and medicine packing materials. The Company's products include anti-tumor medicines, pain-killers, anti-infection medicines, aluminum foil, and other related products.

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets Chinese traditional medicines, including Pientzehuang, Pientzehuang capsules, Pientzehuang lozenge, cough syrup, and other related products.

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (600436 CH)

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited provides a complete range of pharmaceutical services. The Company manufactures bulk drugs and formulations including verapamil and cephalexin. The Company also manufactures and exports molecules such as norfloxacin, ciprofloxacin, and varieties of semi-synthetic penicillin. The Company markets its products in India and around the world.

UCB SA is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company specializes in the treatment of central nervous system disorders and inflammatory diseases. UCB operates worldwide.

Merck KGaA is a global pharmaceutical and chemicals company. The Company researches drugs in the areas oncology and neurodegenerative as well as autoimmune and inflammatory diseases. Also, it markets cardiovascular, fertility, endocrinology, and over-the-counter products as well as products for flat screens and the pharmaceutical, food, cosmetics, packaging, and coatings.

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Company Limited operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company manufactures and sells anti-infectives, anti-neoplastic agents, diabetes drugs, and other products. Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group markets its products throughout China.

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and markets generic and branded human pharmaceuticals, as well as active pharmaceutical ingredients. Teva Pharmaceutical Industries serves customers worldwide.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd focuses on the Research & Development, Manufacturing, Sales and Marketing and Import/Export of Pharmaceutical Drugs. The Company focuses on the following core therapeutic areas: Cardiovascular & Metabolic, Oncology, Central Nervous System, Respiratory & Immunology, General Medicine (Gastrointestinal & Genitourinary) and Vaccine.

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Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) 1Q22: Global Products Continued Double-Digit Revenue Growth

Otsuka reported 13% y/y revenue growth in Q1, driven by four global products and reiterated 2022 guidance. Despite recent pipeline blues, Otsuka’s...

Tina Banerjee

Takeda 4QFY22: Top Line Expands and Pipeline Development Progresses Despite OP Drop

The decline in OP was due to divestitures which remained a key headwind for margins during the last fiscal year. Excluding these, core OP for 4Q...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

HilleVax Pre-IPO: Lead Candidate Has Potential to Become First Approved Vaccine for Norovirus

Norovirus vaccine developer, Hillevax, formed by Takeda Pharmaceutical and PE firm Frazier Healthcare Partners, is seeking to raise up to $100...

Tina Banerjee

TOPIX FFW Transition - Big Flows from April to June

Changes to the Topix FFW methodology will result in a turnover of 2.87% & trade of ¥2,285bn from April to June. There is a lot to trade on some...

Brian Freitas

Takeda Strengthens Rare Disease Portfolio Through Tie-Ups with Gene Therapy Developers

Takeda has been aggressively expanding its rare disease portfolio following recent hiccups in its development pipeline through Tie-Ups with...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

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