Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was "quite possible" the lows were in.</li>
<li>Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.</li>
<li>China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was "quite possible" the lows were in.
Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.
China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.


Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Microsoft's China AI teams relocate due to US rules, focusing on Wi-Fi 7 development for improved connectivity and performance.</li>
<li>Amazon's stake in Alchip suggests potential synergy in AI tech and expanded market reach, while Kymco launches eco-friendly e-scooter.</li>
<li>Tencent Cloud partners with BRI and Hi Cloud Indo for banking innovation, while Veolia opens first regeneration plant in China for sustainable water treatment. Tron Future secures funding for counter-drone tech.</li>
</ul>


Microsoft's China AI teams relocate due to US rules, focusing on Wi-Fi 7 development for improved connectivity and performance.
Amazon's stake in Alchip suggests potential synergy in AI tech and expanded market reach, while Kymco launches eco-friendly e-scooter.
Tencent Cloud partners with BRI and Hi Cloud Indo for banking innovation, while Veolia opens first regeneration plant in China for sustainable water treatment. Tron Future secures funding for counter-drone tech.


Tech Supply Chain Tracker (17-May-2024): Microsoft China AI teams may relocate due to US restrictions.

ASE Technology Holding   / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ASE plans to boost sales in the second half of 2024 with cutting-edge technology and innovative solutions. Introspect CEO discusses how their GDDR7 memory test system outperforms competitors, helping customers stay ahead of the curve.</li><li>Taiwan's space dreams face hurdles from regulations and geopolitics, hindering progress. N Chandrasekaran becomes chair of Tata Electronics, signaling entry into semiconductor industry. Indian GaN startup targets global expansion in telecom and EV markets for growth.</li><li>Triton ignites Taiwan's push for satellite self-sufficiency; Apple partnership speculation with a leading EV startup generates buzz. Lam Research seeks chipmaking tool partners in India to drive innovation and collaboration. #Apple #EVstartup #newsroundup</li></ul>

ASE plans to boost sales in the second half of 2024 with cutting-edge technology and innovative solutions. Introspect CEO discusses how their GDDR7 memory test system outperforms competitors, helping customers stay ahead of the curve.Taiwan's space dreams face hurdles from regulations and geopolitics, hindering progress. N Chandrasekaran becomes chair of Tata Electronics, signaling entry into semiconductor industry. Indian GaN startup targets global expansion in telecom and EV markets for growth.Triton ignites Taiwan's push for satellite self-sufficiency; Apple partnership speculation with a leading EV startup generates buzz. Lam Research seeks chipmaking tool partners in India to drive innovation and collaboration. #Apple #EVstartup #newsroundup

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (14-May-2024): ASE to speed up 2H24 sales growth.

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 10th which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,060.0bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,948mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Quanta Computer, Yang Ming Marine, Tripod Tech, Lite-On Tech, Chailease, Lotus, Novatek, Alchip Tech, Asia Vital.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 10th which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,060.0bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,948mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Quanta Computer, Yang Ming Marine, Tripod Tech, Lite-On Tech, Chailease, Lotus, Novatek, Alchip Tech, Asia Vital.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 10th): TSMC, Quanta Computer, Yang Ming Marine, Tripod Tech

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>It's an exciting 1Q24 result that revenue and GM beat the prior guidance.</li>
<li>The 2Q24 outlook appears to be better than 1Q24, with revenue expected to increase by 5% to 7% QoQ and GM by 9% to 11%.</li>
<li>We consider the primary bottleneck is the embargo of EUV machines to China from the Netherlands.</li>
</ul>


It's an exciting 1Q24 result that revenue and GM beat the prior guidance.
The 2Q24 outlook appears to be better than 1Q24, with revenue expected to increase by 5% to 7% QoQ and GM by 9% to 11%.
We consider the primary bottleneck is the embargo of EUV machines to China from the Netherlands.


SMIC (981.HK): 1Q24 Outlook Was Improved, and The 2Q24 Outlook Appears to Be Better than 1Q24.

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI; EM and China Continue to Lead; U.S. Dollar (DXY), WTI Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Rolling Over; Buys in: Comms,...

Vermilion Research

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (17-May-2024): Microsoft China AI teams may relocate due to US restrictions.

Microsoft AI teams relocating, Wi-Fi 7 advancements, Amazon's stake in Alchip, Kymco e-scooter launch, Tencent Cloud partnership, Veolia's...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (14-May-2024): ASE to speed up 2H24 sales growth.

ASE boosting sales, Introspect CEO's GDDR7 memory test system, Taiwan's space dreams hindered, N Chandrasekaran chair of Tata Electronics, Indian...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 10th): TSMC, Quanta Computer, Yang Ming Marine, Tripod Tech

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Quanta Computer, Yang Ming Marine, Tripod...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SMIC (981.HK): 1Q24 Outlook Was Improved, and The 2Q24 Outlook Appears to Be Better than 1Q24.

Exciting 1Q24 results show revenue and GM surpassing guidance, with optimistic 2Q24 outlook despite EUV machine embargo impacting China.

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI; EM and China Continue to Lead; U.S. Dollar (DXY), WTI Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Rolling Over; Buys in: Comms,...

Vermilion Research

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (17-May-2024): Microsoft China AI teams may relocate due to US restrictions.

Microsoft AI teams relocating, Wi-Fi 7 advancements, Amazon's stake in Alchip, Kymco e-scooter launch, Tencent Cloud partnership, Veolia's...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (14-May-2024): ASE to speed up 2H24 sales growth.

ASE boosting sales, Introspect CEO's GDDR7 memory test system, Taiwan's space dreams hindered, N Chandrasekaran chair of Tata Electronics, Indian...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 10th): TSMC, Quanta Computer, Yang Ming Marine, Tripod Tech

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Quanta Computer, Yang Ming Marine, Tripod...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SMIC (981.HK): 1Q24 Outlook Was Improved, and The 2Q24 Outlook Appears to Be Better than 1Q24.

​Exciting 1Q24 results show revenue and GM surpassing guidance, with optimistic 2Q24 outlook despite EUV machine embargo impacting China.

Patrick Liao

Exciting 1Q24 results show revenue and GM surpassing guidance, with optimistic 2Q24 outlook despite EUV machine embargo impacting China.