Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>Summary</h2>Despite almost all new features like Face ID, wireless charging, OLED display, faster A11 CPU, and glass casing on iPhone X have been well released by the earlier news, we strongly believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/666" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1">Apple Inc (AAPL US)</a>'s new iPhone X to out sell iPhone 8 and 8 plus combined starting November 3. This should result in weaker 3Q17 and early 4Q17 iPhone (8 and 8 plus) shipment and blended ASP but stronger late 4Q17 and 1Q18 iPhone (X) shipment and ASP than past few years to mainly benefit iPhone X…

SummaryDespite almost all new features like Face ID, wireless charging, OLED display, faster A11 CPU, and glass casing on iPhone X have been well released by the earlier news, we strongly believe Apple Inc (AAPL US)'s new iPhone X to out sell iPhone 8 and 8 plus combined starting November 3. This should result in weaker 3Q17 and early 4Q17 iPhone (8 and 8 plus) shipment and blended ASP but stronger late 4Q17 and 1Q18 iPhone (X) shipment and ASP than past few years to mainly benefit iPhone X…

Apple New IPhones and Watch 3: All New Features Are in the Price?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Technicals continue to endorse a bullish outlook. And with the S&amp;P 500 breaking out to new highs yesterday, and insurance stocks recovering from last week, we are benefitting from renewed clarity following the muddled, past two months.In today’s report we highlight actionable ideas in the following Groups:<ul><li>Semis... see page 14-20</li><li>Insurers... see page 8-13</li></ul>

Technicals continue to endorse a bullish outlook. And with the S&amp;P 500 breaking out to new highs yesterday, and insurance stocks recovering from last week, we are benefitting from renewed clarity following the muddled, past two months.In today’s report we highlight actionable ideas in the following Groups:Semis... see page 14-20Insurers... see page 8-13

U.S. Equity Uptrend Resumes; Outlook Remains Bullish

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

A couple of years ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7245" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1">Nidec (6594 JP)</a> unveiled a small elongated haptic device, perfect for fitting into smartphones, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/666" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1">Apple (AAPL US)</a> fell in love with it. At the time, the company was trialing its new touch technology where changes in pressure from the finger onto the device would activate the menu system. Makers of VCM systems like Hong Kong's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6544" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1">AAC Technologies (2018 HK)</a> and Japan's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12001" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12001:1">Alps Electric (6770 JP)</a> had such haptic devices but they proved difficult to manufacture in the quantities…

A couple of years ago, Nidec (6594 JP) unveiled a small elongated haptic device, perfect for fitting into smartphones, and Apple (AAPL US) fell in love with it. At the time, the company was trialing its new touch technology where changes in pressure from the finger onto the device would activate the menu system. Makers of VCM systems like Hong Kong's AAC Technologies (2018 HK) and Japan's Alps Electric (6770 JP) had such haptic devices but they proved difficult to manufacture in the quantities…

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<h2>Market Commentary</h2>The Taiwanese market has continued to perform strongly, led by shares in the technology companies which are integrated into the iPhone manufacturing chain, although the momentum has slowed a liitle over the past two months in line with NASDAQ. As a consequence, the most widely followed market cap weighted index is continuing to outperform our equally weighted index of Taiwanese shares. Unlike Q1 when the Taiwanese dollar recorded its biggest ever gains, dollar based returns are…

Market CommentaryThe Taiwanese market has continued to perform strongly, led by shares in the technology companies which are integrated into the iPhone manufacturing chain, although the momentum has slowed a liitle over the past two months in line with NASDAQ. As a consequence, the most widely followed market cap weighted index is continuing to outperform our equally weighted index of Taiwanese shares. Unlike Q1 when the Taiwanese dollar recorded its biggest ever gains, dollar based returns are…

Taiwan (Overweight): Strong Performance Running Out of Steam? (Part 5 of 6)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>What's new?</h2>Taiwan Ministry of Finance announced yesterday a new tax reform (starting 2019 calendar year for 2018 income taxes) to cut personal tax ceiling to 40% from 45% but raise the corporate tax rate to 20% from 17% coupled with 50% cut on retained earning taxes to 5% from 10%. For the same reform, cash dividends taxes for domestic investors will be cut substantially but be raised by 1% to 21% for foreign investors. Post our analysis, we conclude the reform is positivePost our analysis, we…

What's new?Taiwan Ministry of Finance announced yesterday a new tax reform (starting 2019 calendar year for 2018 income taxes) to cut personal tax ceiling to 40% from 45% but raise the corporate tax rate to 20% from 17% coupled with 50% cut on retained earning taxes to 5% from 10%. For the same reform, cash dividends taxes for domestic investors will be cut substantially but be raised by 1% to 21% for foreign investors. Post our analysis, we conclude the reform is positivePost our analysis, we…

Taiwan Tax Reform: Positive to Domestic Investors but Only Marginal Impact to Corporates' Earnings

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

Apple New IPhones and Watch 3: All New Features Are in the Price?

SummaryDespite almost all new features like Face ID, wireless charging, OLED display, faster A11 CPU, and glass casing on iPhone X have been well...

Andrew Lu

U.S. Equity Uptrend Resumes; Outlook Remains Bullish

Technicals continue to endorse a bullish outlook. And with the S&P 500 breaking out to new highs yesterday, and insurance stocks recovering...

Vermilion Research

WDC Gets Apple in a Huff

A couple of years ago, Nidec (6594 JP) unveiled a small elongated haptic device, perfect for fitting into smartphones, and Apple (AAPL US) fell in...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Taiwan (Overweight): Strong Performance Running Out of Steam? (Part 5 of 6)

Market CommentaryThe Taiwanese market has continued to perform strongly, led by shares in the technology companies which are integrated into the...

John-Paul Smith

Taiwan Tax Reform: Positive to Domestic Investors but Only Marginal Impact to Corporates' Earnings

What's new?Taiwan Ministry of Finance announced yesterday a new tax reform (starting 2019 calendar year for 2018 income taxes) to cut personal tax...

Andrew Lu

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