Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC expects sales to grow by mid-20% YoY in USD in 2024, compared to low to mid-20% previously.</li>
<li>The N3/N5 capacity is very tight, and they are even working with customers for 2026 capacity requirements, while N2 is on track to enter MP in 4Q25.</li>
<li>A16 will enter MP in 2H26, and it's first process starts adopting backside power.</li>
</ul>


TSMC expects sales to grow by mid-20% YoY in USD in 2024, compared to low to mid-20% previously.
The N3/N5 capacity is very tight, and they are even working with customers for 2026 capacity requirements, while N2 is on track to enter MP in 4Q25.
A16 will enter MP in 2H26, and it's first process starts adopting backside power.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The Outlook of 3Q24 Is Pretty Much In-Line, and GM Could Be Better.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +17.9% Premium; Rebounds After Brief Breakdown; Wait for Better Levels</li>
<li>UMC: +1.8% Premium; Can Consider Shorting the Premium at Current Level</li>
<li>ASE: +5.5% Premium Represents a Major Breakdown; Can Consider Going Long</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +17.9% Premium; Rebounds After Brief Breakdown; Wait for Better Levels
UMC: +1.8% Premium; Can Consider Shorting the Premium at Current Level
ASE: +5.5% Premium Represents a Major Breakdown; Can Consider Going Long


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Rebounds After Sharp Breakdown; ASE Major Premium Breakdown

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Nvidia reports/guides a better than expected 3Q/4Q23 sales, margin, and EPS on stronger AI GPU sales growth of nearly 3x.</li>
<li>Nvidia reports a healthy 3.04 MOI, down 5% q/q and down 37% y/y and contributes nicely to account for 9% of TSMC sales.</li>
<li>In spite of concerns on good news priced in, seasonal weaker 1Q24, and MI300X/ASIC alternative AI solutions, we expect more raise to come in 2024-2025E.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia reports/guides a better than expected 3Q/4Q23 sales, margin, and EPS on stronger AI GPU sales growth of nearly 3x.
Nvidia reports a healthy 3.04 MOI, down 5% q/q and down 37% y/y and contributes nicely to account for 9% of TSMC sales.
In spite of concerns on good news priced in, seasonal weaker 1Q24, and MI300X/ASIC alternative AI solutions, we expect more raise to come in 2024-2025E.


As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>3Q25 (Oct-25) 5% above Consensus, Hopper growing incl H200, no Blackwell revenue. 4Q25 (Jan-25) guidance inline with Consensus but Nvidia has beat guidance for 8 quarters.</li>
<li>Jan-25: Blackwell revenue “several billion dollars”. Supply keeps to increase but supply constraints. GM will moderate to low-70% during Blackwell ramp due  but will stabilize at mid-70%.</li>
<li>The stock is not expensive, trading at its average multiples since 2019: 51x trailing EPS, 34x forward EPS. These multiples are high in an absolute sense, but average for NVDA.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 (Oct-25) 5% above Consensus, Hopper growing incl H200, no Blackwell revenue. 4Q25 (Jan-25) guidance inline with Consensus but Nvidia has beat guidance for 8 quarters.
Jan-25: Blackwell revenue “several billion dollars”. Supply keeps to increase but supply constraints. GM will moderate to low-70% during Blackwell ramp due  but will stabilize at mid-70%.
The stock is not expensive, trading at its average multiples since 2019: 51x trailing EPS, 34x forward EPS. These multiples are high in an absolute sense, but average for NVDA.


Nvidia: Maybe a Few Short-Term Concerns but Blackwell Looks like a Step Function Upwards

AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>TSMC’s June 2024 revenue increased by 32.9% YoY, exceeding expectations with $6.42 billion. </li>
<li>It dominates with &gt;62% of the global foundry market share, propelled by AI demand. </li>
<li>Expansion into the automotive market and new fabs in the U.S. and Japan highlight TSMC’s growth strategy. </li>
</ul>


TSMC’s June 2024 revenue increased by 32.9% YoY, exceeding expectations with $6.42 billion. 
It dominates with &gt;62% of the global foundry market share, propelled by AI demand. 
Expansion into the automotive market and new fabs in the U.S. and Japan highlight TSMC’s growth strategy. 


[Q2 Earnings Preview] TSMC: All Eyes on 2nm Chips, Fab Expansion & Continued Earnings Beat

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The Outlook of 3Q24 Is Pretty Much In-Line, and GM Could Be Better.

TSMC anticipates mid-20% sales growth in USD for 2024, with tight N3/N5 capacity and plans for N2 to enter MP in 4Q25. A16 set to enter MP in 2H26...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Rebounds After Sharp Breakdown; ASE Major Premium Breakdown

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably. However, investors see good news priced in in a...

Andrew Lu

Nvidia: Maybe a Few Short-Term Concerns but Blackwell Looks like a Step Function Upwards

Nvidia beats 3Q25 guidance. 4Q25: Blackwell revenue several billions. Blackwell is the product driving revenues up by a step function higher. The...

Nicolas Baratte

[Q2 Earnings Preview] TSMC: All Eyes on 2nm Chips, Fab Expansion & Continued Earnings Beat

TSMC reports Q2 results on 18/Jul. Investors will look to fabs expansion in US & Japan, & progress in 2nm & 3nm chips. TSMC holding 62% of global...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The Outlook of 3Q24 Is Pretty Much In-Line, and GM Could Be Better.

​TSMC anticipates mid-20% sales growth in USD for 2024, with tight N3/N5 capacity and plans for N2 to enter MP in 4Q25. A16 set to enter MP in 2H26...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Rebounds After Sharp Breakdown; ASE Major Premium Breakdown

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably. However, investors see good news priced in in a...

Andrew Lu

Nvidia: Maybe a Few Short-Term Concerns but Blackwell Looks like a Step Function Upwards

​Nvidia beats 3Q25 guidance. 4Q25: Blackwell revenue several billions. Blackwell is the product driving revenues up by a step function higher. The...

Nicolas Baratte

[Q2 Earnings Preview] TSMC: All Eyes on 2nm Chips, Fab Expansion & Continued Earnings Beat

TSMC reports Q2 results on 18/Jul. Investors will look to fabs expansion in US & Japan, & progress in 2nm & 3nm chips. TSMC holding 62% of global...

Mint Finance

TSMC anticipates mid-20% sales growth in USD for 2024, with tight N3/N5 capacity and plans for N2 to enter MP in 4Q25. A16 set to enter MP in 2H26...

Nvidia beats 3Q25 guidance. 4Q25: Blackwell revenue several billions. Blackwell is the product driving revenues up by a step function higher. The...