Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect TSMC will grow ~4.7% QoQ in 2Q22, and the revenue/GM/OPG is around US$17.7bn/55.1%/43.8%.</li>
<li>We highlighted TSMC was considering to increase the wafer price nearly 2 months ago, but TSMC has still not made the final decision yet.  </li>
<li>TSMC 4/5nm capacity will be ready for for 150k/month within 4Q22. We think the new iPhone 14 would request more than half of the capacity.</li>
</ul>


We expect TSMC will grow ~4.7% QoQ in 2Q22, and the revenue/GM/OPG is around US$17.7bn/55.1%/43.8%.
We highlighted TSMC was considering to increase the wafer price nearly 2 months ago, but TSMC has still not made the final decision yet.  
TSMC 4/5nm capacity will be ready for for 150k/month within 4Q22. We think the new iPhone 14 would request more than half of the capacity.


TSMC (TSM.US; 2330.TT): The Outlook Is Positive in 2Q22, and Wafer Price Lift Is Not Decided Yet.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>SMIC will spend ~US$5bn in Capex in 2022, of which only the Beijing Fab is 12”, and Shenzhen and Tianjin are 8” Fabs.</li>
<li>SMIC has three major trends: 1) the local demand is booming rapidly, 2) Auto, industry and others have developed actively, and 3) Huawei's event had made a great impact.</li>
<li>We note SMIC's capacity of each Fab is an estimation because 1) the local governments’ subsidies are somewhat complicated, and 2) it is involved with three local governments in 2022.</li>
</ul>


SMIC will spend ~US$5bn in Capex in 2022, of which only the Beijing Fab is 12”, and Shenzhen and Tianjin are 8” Fabs.
SMIC has three major trends: 1) the local demand is booming rapidly, 2) Auto, industry and others have developed actively, and 3) Huawei's event had made a great impact.
We note SMIC's capacity of each Fab is an estimation because 1) the local governments’ subsidies are somewhat complicated, and 2) it is involved with three local governments in 2022.


SMIC (981.HK): Local Demand Is Very Strong, but EUV Embargo Is Constrained Technical Growth Still.

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

SGX Asia Currencies and Commodities Insights

<ul>
<li>TSMC is still focusing on their delivery targets for 3nm and 2nm for the next goals.</li>
<li>Nvidia CEO Mr. Jensen Huang said he wants to diversify his company’s suppliers as much as possible, and he will consider working with Intel. </li>
<li>We have to leave a big question mark that Intel declares to deliver 3~4 technologies within 2024.</li>
</ul>


TSMC is still focusing on their delivery targets for 3nm and 2nm for the next goals.
Nvidia CEO Mr. Jensen Huang said he wants to diversify his company’s suppliers as much as possible, and he will consider working with Intel. 
We have to leave a big question mark that Intel declares to deliver 3~4 technologies within 2024.


TSMC (TSM.US; 2330.TT): It's Too Aggressive Intel Wants to Deliver 4 Technology Nodes Within 2024.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>It’s NTD$4.976~5.176bn to go in March to reach the 1Q22 guidance of NTD$13.2~13.6bn.</li>
<li>Despite Consumer and Smartphone demands could be weak in 1Q because of seasonality, we still see the demands can be strong in PMIC, Auto, 5G and etc.</li>
<li>For the continuous 8” demand, the clients have high willingness to sign up an LTA (long term agreement), which explains the strong demand situation now.  </li>
</ul>


It’s NTD$4.976~5.176bn to go in March to reach the 1Q22 guidance of NTD$13.2~13.6bn.
Despite Consumer and Smartphone demands could be weak in 1Q because of seasonality, we still see the demands can be strong in PMIC, Auto, 5G and etc.
For the continuous 8” demand, the clients have high willingness to sign up an LTA (long term agreement), which explains the strong demand situation now.  


Vanguard (5347.TT): We Think Vanguard Can Easily Reach 1Q22 Guidance.

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (TSM.US; 2330.TT): The Outlook Is Positive in 2Q22, and Wafer Price Lift Is Not Decided Yet.

We expect TSMC will grow ~4.7% QoQ in 2Q22, and the revenue/GM/OPG is around US$17.7bn/55.1%/43.8%. TSMC 4/5nm capacity will be ready for 150k...

Patrick Liao

SMIC (981.HK): Local Demand Is Very Strong, but EUV Embargo Is Constrained Technical Growth Still.

SMIC will spend ~US$5bn in Capex in 2022, of which only the Beijing is 12” Fab, and Shenzhen and Tianjin are 8” Fabs. SMIC had a limitation to...

Patrick Liao

SGX Asia Currencies and Commodities Insights

By Macro Hive SGX Asia Currencies Insights A lockdown in Shanghai, equity outflows and a negative rate differential for the first time in...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

TSMC (TSM.US; 2330.TT): It's Too Aggressive Intel Wants to Deliver 4 Technology Nodes Within 2024.

TSMC is still focusing on their delivery targets for 3nm and 2nm for the next goals. We have to leave a big question mark here that Intel declares...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): We Think Vanguard Can Easily Reach 1Q22 Guidance.

We think Vanguard can easily reach 1Q22 guidance. It’s NTD$4.976~5.176bn to go in March to reach the 1Q22 guidance of NTD$13.2~13.6bn. We still see...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)