Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Intel's 3Q22 earnings beat expectations, and the shares reacted positively, rising 10.7%.</li>
<li>The company announced $3bn of cost savings for 2023E and $8-10bn in annual cost savings by 2025E. 2023E earnings guidance will be provided at the company's February Investor Day.</li>
<li>Intel has outperformed TSMC and UMC since our pre-Intel Innovation Conference catalyst piece. Intel could still re-rate further relative to the companies into its next earnings.</li>
</ul>


Intel's 3Q22 earnings beat expectations, and the shares reacted positively, rising 10.7%.
The company announced $3bn of cost savings for 2023E and $8-10bn in annual cost savings by 2025E. 2023E earnings guidance will be provided at the company's February Investor Day.
Intel has outperformed TSMC and UMC since our pre-Intel Innovation Conference catalyst piece. Intel could still re-rate further relative to the companies into its next earnings.


Intel Vs. TSMC/​​​​​UMC Long/​​​​​Short Monitor: Intel Results Drive Share Spike, Still Can Re-Rate

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>Intel put forth a significant cost cutting program to generate $3B in savings in 2023 and $8-10B by 2025.</li>
<li>CEO Gelsinger's PC forecasting track record is horrendous, we wouldn't bet on a down MSD 2023 market.</li>
<li>Datacenter...which once carried near 60% margins hit breakeven this quarter... an astonishing fall.</li>
</ul>


Intel put forth a significant cost cutting program to generate $3B in savings in 2023 and $8-10B by 2025.
CEO Gelsinger's PC forecasting track record is horrendous, we wouldn't bet on a down MSD 2023 market.
Datacenter...which once carried near 60% margins hit breakeven this quarter... an astonishing fall.


Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Intel's earnings this week is a key potential catalyst for the INTC &amp; TSMC pair.  Look for comments related to U.S. chip restrictions for China.</li>
<li>Intel going ex-div early November. We note Intel's dividend yield is much higher than TSMC's and Intel's dividend level appears well covered by even falling earnings.</li>
<li>Key upcoming events: Likely to be mostly related to Intel for the next two weeks.</li>
</ul>


Intel's earnings this week is a key potential catalyst for the INTC &amp; TSMC pair.  Look for comments related to U.S. chip restrictions for China.
Intel going ex-div early November. We note Intel's dividend yield is much higher than TSMC's and Intel's dividend level appears well covered by even falling earnings.
Key upcoming events: Likely to be mostly related to Intel for the next two weeks.


Intel Vs. TSMC/​​​​UMC Long/​​​​Short Monitor: Intel Earnings This Week, Potential Positive Comments

<ul>
<li>TSMC's ADR premium has rebounded and is high relative to its recent trading range.</li>
<li>ASE Technology's ADR premium has spiked to a historically very high level.</li>
<li>UMC ADRs are also trading at a relatively high premium.</li>
</ul>


TSMC's ADR premium has rebounded and is high relative to its recent trading range.
ASE Technology's ADR premium has spiked to a historically very high level.
UMC ADRs are also trading at a relatively high premium.


Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Premium Near-Term High, ASE Spikes, UMC High as Well

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Chips / In Depth: The sudden reversal of the global chip shortage</li><li>Hong Kong / Hong Kong unveils new visa, property tax policies to stanch talent exodus</li><li>Central bank / China’s central bank gets new deputy governor</li></ul>

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CX Daily: The Sudden Reversal of the Global Chip Shortage

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

Intel 3Q22: Still Too Optimistic

Intel's cost cutting program is overly optimistic, much like every other forecast Pat Gelsinger has made since becoming CEO two years ago. Fade...

Aaron Gabin

Intel Vs. TSMC/UMC Long/Short Monitor: Intel Earnings This Week, Potential Positive Comments

Intel's earnings this week is a key potential catalyst for the INTC & TSMC pair. Look for comments related to U.S. chip restrictions for China.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Premium Near-Term High, ASE Spikes, UMC High as Well

Taiwan ADR premiums have generally risen across the board recently. TSMC's premium is high if one looks at the most recent trading range.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

CX Daily: The Sudden Reversal of the Global Chip Shortage

In Depth: The sudden reversal of the global chip shortage. Hong Kong unveils new visa, property tax policies to stanch talent exodus

Caixin Global

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Intel Vs. TSMC/​​​​​UMC Long/​​​​​Short Monitor: Intel Results Drive Share Spike, Still Can Re-Rate

Intel has outperformed TSMC and UMC since our pre-Intel Innovation Conference catalyst piece. Intel could still re-rate further relative to the...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel 3Q22: Still Too Optimistic

Intel's cost cutting program is overly optimistic, much like every other forecast Pat Gelsinger has made since becoming CEO two years ago. Fade...

Aaron Gabin

Intel Vs. TSMC/​​​​UMC Long/​​​​Short Monitor: Intel Earnings This Week, Potential Positive Comments

Intel's earnings this week is a key potential catalyst for the INTC & TSMC pair. Look for comments related to U.S. chip restrictions for China.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Premium Near-Term High, ASE Spikes, UMC High as Well

Taiwan ADR premiums have generally risen across the board recently. TSMC's premium is high if one looks at the most recent trading range.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

CX Daily: The Sudden Reversal of the Global Chip Shortage

In Depth: The sudden reversal of the global chip shortage. Hong Kong unveils new visa, property tax policies to stanch talent exodus

Caixin Global

Intel Vs. TSMC/UMC Long/Short Monitor: Intel Results Drive Share Spike, Still Can Re-Rate

Intel Vs. TSMC/UMC Long/Short Monitor: Intel Earnings This Week, Potential Positive Comments