Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC -- Trading near parity, decent setup opportunity at the current level.</li>
<li>UMC -- Trading at a discount, another decent setup opportunity.</li>
<li>Chunghwa Telecom -- Rare opportunity here, trading at a steep discount compared to the tight historical range.</li>
</ul>


TSMC -- Trading near parity, decent setup opportunity at the current level.
UMC -- Trading at a discount, another decent setup opportunity.
Chunghwa Telecom -- Rare opportunity here, trading at a steep discount compared to the tight historical range.


Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC & UMC Nice Setup Opportunities, Chunghwa Rare Deep Discount

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The current semiconductor market meltdown can be expected to continue through the end of 2024</li>
<li>This will reduce 2022 market growth to 5%, and will drive a decline of 19% in 2023</li>
<li>Stocks will be unevenly influenced by this, with the most dramatic declines hitting makers of volume commodities, smaller declines in differentiated products, and a weak impact on older technology products.</li>
</ul>


The current semiconductor market meltdown can be expected to continue through the end of 2024
This will reduce 2022 market growth to 5%, and will drive a decline of 19% in 2023
Stocks will be unevenly influenced by this, with the most dramatic declines hitting makers of volume commodities, smaller declines in differentiated products, and a weak impact on older technology products.


2023 High Conviction: Semiconductor Down Market

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q22E earnings came in mostly ahead of expectations, however, if one looks at margin and inventory performance, the latest earnings season doesn't look so good.</li>
<li>Semiconductor margins fell and inventory days rose multi-year highs, Hardware margins fell further and inventory days look worse than ever.</li>
<li>Conclusion: 4Q22E end-demand could disappoint significantly and then companies will be slashing prices/writing off inventory into 1Q23E.</li>
</ul>


3Q22E earnings came in mostly ahead of expectations, however, if one looks at margin and inventory performance, the latest earnings season doesn't look so good.
Semiconductor margins fell and inventory days rose multi-year highs, Hardware margins fell further and inventory days look worse than ever.
Conclusion: 4Q22E end-demand could disappoint significantly and then companies will be slashing prices/writing off inventory into 1Q23E.


Taiwan Tech 3Q22 Earnings Season Ex-Post: Signs of Major Margin Pain Ahead

Hon Hai Precision Industry / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Unprecedented protests have emerged in China; Hon Hai is offering an $1,800 bonus per month to keep workers on site.</li>
<li>Taiwan memory chip makers are slashing production in response to end-demand weakness, Nanya Tech looks at risk of a pullback.</li>
<li>TSMC to build its most advanced fab yet, a 1-nanometer class facility, in Taoyuan. The price tag? $32bn.</li>
</ul>


Unprecedented protests have emerged in China; Hon Hai is offering an $1,800 bonus per month to keep workers on site.
Taiwan memory chip makers are slashing production in response to end-demand weakness, Nanya Tech looks at risk of a pullback.
TSMC to build its most advanced fab yet, a 1-nanometer class facility, in Taoyuan. The price tag? $32bn.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Unprecedented China Protests, Memory Slump, TSMC Keeping Taiwan Fabs Ahead of US

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>TSMC US ADR (TSM) squeeze higher still has a dip and rally sequence to work into a top. USD low due in December and will form a top near 87/88.</li>
<li>We are keen to buy a pullback for a minor new high but the bigger trade is to short near the 88/90 resistance.</li>
<li>Global cycle peak and USD bottoming in December is a key input. TSMC's macro trend remains down.</li>
</ul>


TSMC US ADR (TSM) squeeze higher still has a dip and rally sequence to work into a top. USD low due in December and will form a top near 87/88.
We are keen to buy a pullback for a minor new high but the bigger trade is to short near the 88/90 resistance.
Global cycle peak and USD bottoming in December is a key input. TSMC's macro trend remains down.


Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC & UMC Nice Setup Opportunities, Chunghwa Rare Deep Discount

Chunghwa Telecom -- Rare opportunity here, trading at a steep discount compared to the tight historical range. TSMC and UMC also present decent...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

2023 High Conviction: Semiconductor Down Market

What's happening in semiconductors? When will the downturn end? What does this mean to chip stock prices? This Insight provides some concrete...

Jim Handy

Taiwan Tech 3Q22 Earnings Season Ex-Post: Signs of Major Margin Pain Ahead

If we examine the industry's latest gross margin and inventory performance, the latest quarterly results don't look so good.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Unprecedented China Protests, Memory Slump, TSMC Keeping Taiwan Fabs Ahead of US

Taiwan memory chip makers are slashing production in response to end-demand weakness, Nanya Tech looks at risk of a pullback.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSM Finessing a Top

TSMC US ADR (TSM) squeeze higher still has a dip and rally sequence to work into a top. USD low due in December and will form a top near 87/88.

Thomas Schroeder

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