Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC snags $6.6 billion in US CHIPS Act funding, along with loans up to $5 billion and tax credits up to 25% on eligible capital expenditures</li>
<li>TSMC has committed to building a third fab in Arizona, scheduled to begin operations around 2030</li>
<li>TSMC's reiteration of their world class CAGR, Gross Margin &amp; ROE numbers shines a light on Intel's vastly inferior performance outlook.</li>
</ul>


TSMC snags $6.6 billion in US CHIPS Act funding, along with loans up to $5 billion and tax credits up to 25% on eligible capital expenditures
TSMC has committed to building a third fab in Arizona, scheduled to begin operations around 2030
TSMC's reiteration of their world class CAGR, Gross Margin &amp; ROE numbers shines a light on Intel's vastly inferior performance outlook.


TSMC Snags US CHIPS Act Funding & Ups The Ante On Intel

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Chairman 69 years old Dr. Liu will retire and 70 years old CEO Dr. Wei will step up. What story do we believe? Will TSMC to regain its strong outperperformance?</li>
<li>Positive impacts: we expect Arizona fab equipment move-in and ramp up might be further delayed if no subsidies are granted; two teams competing to one voice/team/direction.</li>
<li>Three risks: 1. Dr. Wei at his age of 70 without a strong management backup; 2. Dr. Wei might make a wrong decision deeply; 3. absolute power corrupts.</li>
</ul>


Chairman 69 years old Dr. Liu will retire and 70 years old CEO Dr. Wei will step up. What story do we believe? Will TSMC to regain its strong outperperformance?
Positive impacts: we expect Arizona fab equipment move-in and ramp up might be further delayed if no subsidies are granted; two teams competing to one voice/team/direction.
Three risks: 1. Dr. Wei at his age of 70 without a strong management backup; 2. Dr. Wei might make a wrong decision deeply; 3. absolute power corrupts.


TSMC Chairman to Retire, + or — Impacts to Shareholders

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>Today, the U.S. Department of Commerce and TSMC Arizona have signed a non-binding preliminary memorandum of terms for US$6.6 billion in direct funding under the CHIPS and Science Act.</li>
<li>We estimate the impact of the earthquake on April 3rd should result in a loss of within 0.5% in 2Q24F, which means it should not affect our 2Q24F revenue expectations.</li>
<li>TSMC's 1st Japan Fab is expected to commence pilot production in February, and the 2nd Fab is projected to begin production of N6/N7 in 2027F.</li>
</ul>


Today, the U.S. Department of Commerce and TSMC Arizona have signed a non-binding preliminary memorandum of terms for US$6.6 billion in direct funding under the CHIPS and Science Act.
We estimate the impact of the earthquake on April 3rd should result in a loss of within 0.5% in 2Q24F, which means it should not affect our 2Q24F revenue expectations.
TSMC's 1st Japan Fab is expected to commence pilot production in February, and the 2nd Fab is projected to begin production of N6/N7 in 2027F.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): US$6.6bn from US CHIPS Act; the Earthquake Impact and the 2nd Japanese Fab.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +16.2%, Bounced Back to Historically Extreme Level, Consider Short</li>
<li>UMC: -0.3% Discount, Flipped to Positive and Now Negative Again</li>
<li>ASE: +15.3% Premium; Bounced Back to Extreme Highs, Short the Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +16.2%, Bounced Back to Historically Extreme Level, Consider Short
UMC: -0.3% Discount, Flipped to Positive and Now Negative Again
ASE: +15.3% Premium; Bounced Back to Extreme Highs, Short the Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC, ASE Spreads Bounce Back to Historically Extreme Highs

<ul>
<li>We believe TSMC represents defensive exposure to AI for investors concerned that many other AI-related stocks' valuations may be too high.</li>
<li>While one may think TSMC seems too obvious as a play, we note that the stock is up only 4.5% over the last six months.</li>
<li>We view TSMC as trading at an inexpensive valuation; even a cheap valuation should our hypothesis that the stock is structurally re-rating upwards turn out to be true.</li>
</ul>


We believe TSMC represents defensive exposure to AI for investors concerned that many other AI-related stocks' valuations may be too high.
While one may think TSMC seems too obvious as a play, we note that the stock is up only 4.5% over the last six months.
We view TSMC as trading at an inexpensive valuation; even a cheap valuation should our hypothesis that the stock is structurally re-rating upwards turn out to be true.


TSMC: Defensive AI Play in Long Upward Re-Rating Trend?

Taiwan

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. offers assembly and testing services. The Company provides outsourced assembly, semiconductor testing, semiconductor packaging, and other related services. ASE Technology Holding operates in Taiwan.

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

Realtek Semiconductor Corp. designs, tests, and distributes integrated circuits which are used in consumer electronics, computer systems and peripherals, and communication network hardware.  The Company also provides technical counseling and systems software services.

Global Unichip Corporation designs and produces a wide variety of silicon chips.

Novatek Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs).  The Company's products are used in telecommunication, computer peripherals, and LCD (liquid crystal display) drivers.

Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation offers integrated circuit foundry services.  The Company manufactures 0.18um logic, mixed-signal, analog, high voltage, low power, CMOS RF, flash, embedded memory, and bipolar CMOS DMOS semiconductors.

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

QUALCOMM, Inc . manufactures digital wireless communications equipment.  The Company licenses its code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing access intellectual property to other companies, and produces CDMA-based integrated circuits; and produces equipment and software used to track workers and assets; and software for wireless content enablement.

Broadcom Inc. designs, develops, and supplies semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The Company offers storage adapters, controllers, networking processors, motion control encoders, and optical sensors, as well as infrastructure and security software to modernize, optimize, and secure the most complex hybrid environments. Broadcom serves customers worldwide.

KLA-Tencor Corporation manufactures yield management and process monitoring systems for the semiconductor industry.  The Company's systems are used to analyze product and process quality at critical steps in the manufacture of circuits and provide feedback so that fabrication problems can be identified. KLA-Tencor operates sales, service, and application centers worldwide.

Lam Research Corporation manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the making of integrated circuits.  The Company's products are used to deposit special films on a silicon wafer and etch away portions of various films to create a circuit design.  Lam sells its products around the world.

Monolithic Power Systems Inc specializes in high-performance, integrated power solutions. The Company provides small, highly energy efficient, easy-to-use power solutions for systems found in industrial applications, telecom infrastructures, cloud computing, automotive, and consumer applications.

ON Semiconductor Corporation supplies analog, standard logic, and discrete semiconductors for data and power management. The Company's products include integrated circuits, and analog ICs. ON also offers discrete semiconductors in a variety of surface mount and standard packages.

Skyworks Solutions, Inc., a wireless semiconductor company, designs and manufactures radio frequency and complete semiconductor system solutions for mobile communications applications.  The Company provides front-end modules, radio frequency subsystems, and system solutions to wireless handset and infrastructure customers worldwide.

Microchip Technology Incorporated designs, manufactures, and markets microcontrollers, related mixed-signal and memory products, and application development systems for high-volume embedded control applications. The Company also designs, develops, and markets linear/mixed-signal, power management, and thermal management products.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC Snags US CHIPS Act Funding & Ups The Ante On Intel

TSMC gets $6.6 billion US CHIPS Act funding & will build a third fab in Arizona, scheduled to open in 2030. They also reminded us of their world...

William Keating

TSMC Chairman to Retire, + or — Impacts to Shareholders

TSMC Chairman to Retire, + or — Impacts to Shareholders; Chairman 69 years old Dr. Liu will retire and 70 years old CEO Dr. Wei will step up. What...

Andrew Lu

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): US$6.6bn from US CHIPS Act; the Earthquake Impact and the 2nd Japanese Fab.

US Department of Commerce and TSMC Arizona sign $6.6 billion deal; earthquake impact minimal on TSMC revenue; TSMC's 1st Japan Fab to start...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC, ASE Spreads Bounce Back to Historically Extreme Highs

ADR spreads for TSMC and ASE have bounced back to historically high levels, opening potential shorting opportunities. CHT bounced back from...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC: Defensive AI Play in Long Upward Re-Rating Trend?

We view TSMC as trading at an inexpensive valuation; even a cheap valuation should our hypothesis that the stock is structurally re-rating upwards...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC Snags US CHIPS Act Funding & Ups The Ante On Intel

TSMC gets $6.6 billion US CHIPS Act funding & will build a third fab in Arizona, scheduled to open in 2030. They also reminded us of their world...

William Keating

TSMC Chairman to Retire, + or — Impacts to Shareholders

TSMC Chairman to Retire, + or — Impacts to Shareholders; Chairman 69 years old Dr. Liu will retire and 70 years old CEO Dr. Wei will step up. What...

Andrew Lu

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): US$6.6bn from US CHIPS Act; the Earthquake Impact and the 2nd Japanese Fab.

​US Department of Commerce and TSMC Arizona sign $6.6 billion deal; earthquake impact minimal on TSMC revenue; TSMC's 1st Japan Fab to start...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC, ASE Spreads Bounce Back to Historically Extreme Highs

ADR spreads for TSMC and ASE have bounced back to historically high levels, opening potential shorting opportunities. CHT bounced back from...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC: Defensive AI Play in Long Upward Re-Rating Trend?

We view TSMC as trading at an inexpensive valuation; even a cheap valuation should our hypothesis that the stock is structurally re-rating upwards...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

US Department of Commerce and TSMC Arizona sign $6.6 billion deal; earthquake impact minimal on TSMC revenue; TSMC's 1st Japan Fab to start...