Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a> is likely to see that there could be a decline of around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.</li>
<li>In terms of revenue contribution, Taiwan, US, China, Europe, and Japan account for approximately 40%, 20%, 15%, 15%, and 10% respectively.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> may give up technology development at 40nm and above and transfer them to Vanguard.</li>
</ul>



Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) is likely to see that there could be a decline of around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.
In terms of revenue contribution, Taiwan, US, China, Europe, and Japan account for approximately 40%, 20%, 15%, 15%, and 10% respectively.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) may give up technology development at 40nm and above and transfer them to Vanguard.


Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Revenue Might Decline ~10% QoQ.

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Dec 29th which has an aggregated holding worth USD730.2bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,532mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Umc, and Asia Vital.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Dec 29th which has an aggregated holding worth USD730.2bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,532mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y.
We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Umc, and Asia Vital.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 29th): Foreign Insti Increased Holdings

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC: 9.2% Premium -- Spread Fell But Remains Historically High; Short Interest Spiked for ADRs</li>
<li>UMC: Trading at -1.2% Discount -- Still Uncompelling, Wait for Lower Levels</li>
<li>ASE: Drops to 7% Premium -- Could Soon Be at a Level to Go Long</li>
</ul>


TSMC: 9.2% Premium -- Spread Fell But Remains Historically High; Short Interest Spiked for ADRs
UMC: Trading at -1.2% Discount -- Still Uncompelling, Wait for Lower Levels
ASE: Drops to 7% Premium -- Could Soon Be at a Level to Go Long


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Remains High; ADR Short Interest Spiked

<ul>
<li>A recent news report speculates that Analog Devices (ADI US)  is planning to raise prices by ~20%.</li>
<li>Silergy Corp (6415 TT) is reportedly considering a price increase of over 15% in the Chinese market.</li>
<li>We believe that now is a good time to invest in Silergy.</li>
</ul>


A recent news report speculates that Analog Devices (ADI US)  is planning to raise prices by ~20%.
Silergy Corp (6415 TT) is reportedly considering a price increase of over 15% in the Chinese market.
We believe that now is a good time to invest in Silergy.


Silergy (6415.TT): Chinese Analog IC Could Raise up Prices by About 15%.

<ul>
<li>PC Shares Soaring -- After 1) Intel's AI Everywhere AI chip launch, 2) Launch of First AI PCs, 3) Micron's positive outlook for PCs in its latest results</li>
<li>Micron Analysis, Industry Takeaways: Memory Market TAM New Highs into 2025; SK Hynix Trade</li>
<li>Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at a Decent Short Level; ASE Short Interest Declining</li>
</ul>


PC Shares Soaring -- After 1) Intel's AI Everywhere AI chip launch, 2) Launch of First AI PCs, 3) Micron's positive outlook for PCs in its latest results
Micron Analysis, Industry Takeaways: Memory Market TAM New Highs into 2025; SK Hynix Trade
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at a Decent Short Level; ASE Short Interest Declining


Taiwan Tech Weekly: PC Shares Clearly On Santa's Nice List; Soaring After AI PC Releases; Dell Trade

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Revenue Might Decline ~10% QoQ.

TSMC may see a 10% decline in 1Q24F, with Taiwan, US, China, Europe, and Japan being major revenue contributors. TSMC might also transfer 40nm and...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 29th): Foreign Insti Increased Holdings

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Umc, and Asia Vital.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Remains High; ADR Short Interest Spiked

In this piece, we provide our long and short levels for each dual-listing spread. Only TSMC's spread offers a compelling opportunity right now in...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Silergy (6415.TT): Chinese Analog IC Could Raise up Prices by About 15%.

Analog Devices may raise prices by 20% while Silergy Corp considers a 15% increase in China. Investing in Silergy seems favorable.

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: PC Shares Clearly On Santa's Nice List; Soaring After AI PC Releases; Dell Trade

PC Shares Soaring -- After 1) Intel's AI Everywhere AI chip launch, 2) Launch of First AI PCs, 3) Micron's positive outlook for PCs in its latest...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Revenue Might Decline ~10% QoQ.

​TSMC may see a 10% decline in 1Q24F, with Taiwan, US, China, Europe, and Japan being major revenue contributors. TSMC might also transfer 40nm and...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 29th): Foreign Insti Increased Holdings

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Umc, and Asia Vital.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Remains High; ADR Short Interest Spiked

In this piece, we provide our long and short levels for each dual-listing spread. Only TSMC's spread offers a compelling opportunity right now in...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Silergy (6415.TT): Chinese Analog IC Could Raise up Prices by About 15%.

​Analog Devices may raise prices by 20% while Silergy Corp considers a 15% increase in China. Investing in Silergy seems favorable.

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: PC Shares Clearly On Santa's Nice List; Soaring After AI PC Releases; Dell Trade

PC Shares Soaring -- After 1) Intel's AI Everywhere AI chip launch, 2) Launch of First AI PCs, 3) Micron's positive outlook for PCs in its latest...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC may see a 10% decline in 1Q24F, with Taiwan, US, China, Europe, and Japan being major revenue contributors. TSMC might also transfer 40nm and...

Analog Devices may raise prices by 20% while Silergy Corp considers a 15% increase in China. Investing in Silergy seems favorable.