Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Apple shares have fallen recently, nearing 52-week lows as analysts have been cutting share targets on China production uncertainty and weak consumer end-market demand.</li>
<li>Key Apple suppliers Quanta and Pegatron, in particular, appear to have not yet reacted to the declining market sentiment towards Apple.</li>
<li>Investors can consider Shorting Quanta and Pegatron vs. a Long position in Apple. We see limited potential for positive news flow for the stocks through January.</li>
</ul>


Apple shares have fallen recently, nearing 52-week lows as analysts have been cutting share targets on China production uncertainty and weak consumer end-market demand.
Key Apple suppliers Quanta and Pegatron, in particular, appear to have not yet reacted to the declining market sentiment towards Apple.
Investors can consider Shorting Quanta and Pegatron vs. a Long position in Apple. We see limited potential for positive news flow for the stocks through January.


Taiwan Apple Ecosystem Monitor: Quanta and Pegatron Shares Lagging Apple Decline?

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC ADRs are trading at a small premium; 4Q22 results will be released on January 12th.</li>
<li>UMC ADRs are trading at a discount; 4Q22 results will be released on January 16th.</li>
<li>ChipMOS ADRs are trading at a decent discount, opening a trade opportunity.</li>
</ul>


TSMC ADRs are trading at a small premium; 4Q22 results will be released on January 12th.
UMC ADRs are trading at a discount; 4Q22 results will be released on January 16th.
ChipMOS ADRs are trading at a decent discount, opening a trade opportunity.


Taiwan Dual-Listings: Premium/Discounts Mostly in the Middle, ChipMOS Opportunity

<ul>
<li>Intel outperformed TSMC in 1H December, and then TSMC outperformed after some negative rumors about an Intel product delay/cancellation.</li>
<li>After a quiet December, January will be a big month as we will have 4Q22E result for both companies. The expectatioins bar for INTC is set very low.</li>
<li>We see a potential Long INTC vs. Short TSMC opportunity <strong><em>after</em></strong> TSMC has released results and before INTC has released its results.</li>
</ul>


Intel outperformed TSMC in 1H December, and then TSMC outperformed after some negative rumors about an Intel product delay/cancellation.
After a quiet December, January will be a big month as we will have 4Q22E result for both companies. The expectatioins bar for INTC is set very low.
We see a potential Long INTC vs. Short TSMC opportunity after TSMC has released results and before INTC has released its results.


Intel Vs. TSMC Monitor: After a Quiet December, January Will Be a Big Month

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>GEM funds reduce exposure to Taiwanese Semiconductors, switching from overweight to their largest underweight in over a decade.</li>
<li>Absolute positioning levels still high, with Taiwanese Semiconductors the largest country/industry allocation for 61% of the managers in our analysis and a top 3 allocation for 78%.</li>
<li>Value investors moved first, switching from near equal weight in early 2020 to -1.95% underweight today.  All Style groups are now positioned underweight the MSCI EM benchmark, on average.</li>
</ul>


GEM funds reduce exposure to Taiwanese Semiconductors, switching from overweight to their largest underweight in over a decade.
Absolute positioning levels still high, with Taiwanese Semiconductors the largest country/industry allocation for 61% of the managers in our analysis and a top 3 allocation for 78%.
Value investors moved first, switching from near equal weight in early 2020 to -1.95% underweight today.  All Style groups are now positioned underweight the MSCI EM benchmark, on average.


Taiwan Semiconductors: Value Funds Drive Underweight

<ul>
<li>While most of the semi industry is reducing capex due to market weakness -- Samsung says it will still expand capacity next year.</li>
<li>China chip restrictions get more severe -- Now Arm is not selling its most advanced chip architectures to Chinese firms.</li>
<li>TSMC in advanced talks to set up its first European production capacity in Germany.</li>
</ul>


While most of the semi industry is reducing capex due to market weakness -- Samsung says it will still expand capacity next year.
China chip restrictions get more severe -- Now Arm is not selling its most advanced chip architectures to Chinese firms.
TSMC in advanced talks to set up its first European production capacity in Germany.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Samsung Will Keep Expanding Capacity, China Chip Restrictions Tighten Further

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

Taiwan Apple Ecosystem Monitor: Quanta and Pegatron Shares Lagging Apple Decline?

Apple shares have fallen most recently, nearing 52-week lows as analysts have been cutting share targets on China production uncertainty.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings: Premium/Discounts Mostly in the Middle, ChipMOS Opportunity

While most premium/discounts are relatively normal, ChipMOS ADRs are trading at a decent discount, representing a trade opportunity.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel Vs. TSMC Monitor: After a Quiet December, January Will Be a Big Month

We see a potential Long INTC vs. Short TSMC opportunity after TSMC has released results and before INTC has released its results.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Semiconductors: Value Funds Drive Underweight

Taiwanese Semiconductor allocations among GEM active funds are well off the highs of 2021 as more funds scale back holdings and many move to an...

Steven Holden

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Samsung Will Keep Expanding Capacity, China Chip Restrictions Tighten Further

China chip restrictions get more severe -- Now Arm is not selling its most advanced chip architectures to Chinese firms.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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